BYD(1211.HK):MIXED PICTURE FOR 2Q24 RESULTS BUT VEHICLE PROFITABILITY SET TO FURTHER IMPROVE IN 2H24
BYD(1211.HK):MIXED PICTURE FOR 2Q24 RESULTS BUT VEHICLE PROFITABILITY SET TO FURTHER IMPROVE IN 2H24
In 2Q24, BYD's total revenue rose by 25.9% YoY, lower than sales volume growth of 40.2%, primarily because the rollouts of cheaper Rongyao editions and weakening product mix pulled back blended ASP. Despite weaker gross margin that dipped by over 3ppts QoQ, net income surged 32.8%YoY and roughly doubled QoQ to RMB9.1bn in 2Q24, helped by stronger OPEX control and an increase in other income. Heading into 2H24, we anticipate the further launch of new models and capacity bottleneck release for DM5.0 may drive September sales volume to break 400k units. Meanwhile, thanks to higher MSRP/margin of DM 5.0 products than corresponding Rongyao versions, we expect earnings per vehicle set to further improve from 2Q24 at RMB8.5k. We maintain BUY with higher TP at HK$265.00, equivalent to 20x 2024E P/E.
在2Q24,比亞迪的總營業收入同比增長25.9%,低於銷售成交量增長40.2%,主要是因爲推出更便宜的榮耀版和產品組合減弱拉低了均價。儘管較弱的毛利率較上季度下降了3個百分點以上,淨利潤同比增長了32.8%,環比翻了一番,達到了人民幣91億,在2Q24,得益於更強勁的OPEX控制和其他收入的增加。進入2H24,我們預計將推出新車型,並釋放DM5.0的產能瓶頸,可能推動9月份的銷售量突破40萬輛。同時,由於Dm 5.0產品的建議零售價/毛利率比相應的榮耀版本高,我們預計每輛車的收益提升到了2Q24的人民幣0.85萬元。我們繼續以更高的HK$265.00的目標價買入,相當於2024E市盈率的20倍。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
2Q24 revenue growth well below sales volume growth dragged by ASP decline due to pricing campaign and weakening product mix. In 2Q24, total revenue rose by 25.9% YoY to RMB176.2bn, with the revenue of BYDE (285 HK, BUY) largely in line at RMB42.1bn. If excluding BYDE, the remainder increased 21.7% YoY to RMB134.1bn, much below sales volume growth of 40.2% YoY for the period, dragged by lower revenue per vehicle that dipped 13.2% YoY to RMB 136k amid the company's new round of pricing campaign. Since late February, the company successively launched Rongyao versions for major models with MSRP mostly slashed by RMB 20-30k, while new-generation DM-i products that have been launched since late May still contributed limited proportions in 2Q24.
由於價格競爭和產品組合減弱導致2Q24營收增長遠低於銷售成交量的增長。在2Q24,總營業收入同比增長25.9%,達到人民幣176.2億,比亞迪電子(285港,買入)的營業收入基本持平,達到了人民幣42.1億。如果不計入比亞迪電子,剩餘部分同比增長21.7%,達到了人民幣134.1億,遠低於該時期銷售成交量的40.2%同比增長,由於每輛車的收入下降13.2%,達到了人民幣13.6萬元,拖累了公司的新一輪價格競爭。自2月底以來,公司相繼推出了主要車型的榮耀版本,建議零售價大多下調了2-3萬元,而自5月底以來推出的新一代Dm-i產品在2Q24仍然只佔了很小比例。
2Q24 gross margin missed on deteriorated product mix and aggressive price reduction despite larger sales scale. The overall gross margin dipped by over 3ppts QoQ to 18.7%, below expectations. If excluding BYDE whose gross margin flattened QoQ, gross margin of automobiles and other businesses declined 5.7ppts QoQ to 22.4% in 2Q24, which could be explained by (i) deteriorated product mix with larger sales proportion of low-margin entry-level models, (ii) extra start-up costs relevant to PHEV models featured fifth-gen DM-i technology during the early production ramp up stage (i.e. Qin L DM-i, Seal 06 DM-i).
儘管銷售規模擴大,2Q24的毛利率由於產品組合惡化和激進的價格削減而下降。整體毛利率較上季度下降了3個百分點以上,達到18.7%,低於預期。如果不包括比亞迪電子,其毛利率環比基本持平,汽車和其他業務的毛利率在2Q24下降了5.7個百分點,降至了22.4%,這可以解釋爲(i)產品組合惡化,低毛利入門級車型的銷售比例增加,(ii)與第五代Dm-i科技特色混動車型相關的額外啓動成本,包括了新一代Dm-i科技的量產初期階段(即秦 L Dm-i,Seal 06 Dm-i)。
Net income largely in line with mixed picture on weaker GPM but stricter OPEX outlay control. Despite lower GPM, the OPEX outlay was under stringent control in 2Q24 with OPEX ratio narrowed to 11.6%, against 17.0% in 1Q24 and 12.3% in 2Q23. In addition, other income (mainly government subsidy) surged to RMB 3bn (vs. RMB 1.8bn in 1Q24 and RMB1.2bn in 2Q23). All these combined led to net profit up 32.8% YoY and doubling QoQ to RMB 9.1bn in 2Q24.
淨利潤基本與毛利率下降但更嚴格的營業外支出控制的複雜圖畫大體相符。儘管毛利率較低,但營業外支出受到了嚴格的控制,2Q24的營業外支出比率收窄至11.6%,而1Q24爲17.0%,2Q23爲12.3%。此外,其他收入(主要是政府補貼)激增至30億元人民幣(相較於1Q24的18億元人民幣和2Q23的12億元人民幣)。所有這些因素共同導致淨利潤同比增長32.8%,環比增長一倍,達到910億元人民幣。
Cash flow stayed negative with the net operating cash flow sinking to three-year low on inventory hike. In 2Q24, the company's net cash flow from operating activities sunk to RMB4.0bn as three-year low, mostly due to an increase of finished goods and trade receivables resulting from mismatch of deliveries and production. Coupled with escalated cash outflow from financing/investing activities, the company extended a negative free cash flow of RMB-17.2bn in 2Q24, vs. RMB-15.9bn in 1Q24. Even so, we expect the overall inventory level to normalise in upcoming quarters helped by increasing delivery scale and continued sales ramp up of new launches, which aids to a positive cash flow accordingly.
現金流仍然爲負,淨營業現金流降至三年新低,主要因存貨增加。在2Q24,公司的營業活動現金流爲40億元人民幣,爲三年新低,主要是由於交付和生產不匹配導致的產成品和應收賬款增加。加上融資/投資活動的現金流出,公司的2Q24自由現金流爲負172億元人民幣,而1Q24爲負159億元人民幣。即便如此,我們預計隨着交付規模的增加和新產品上市的持續銷售增長,整體存貨水平將在未來幾個季度得以恢復正常,相應地助力正向現金流的達成。
Earnings Forecast and Valuation
盈利預測和估值
Propelled by the intensive launches of cheaper Rongyao editions for flagship models and upgraded hybrid models with DM5.0 technologies, the company set a fresh quarter delivery new high in 2Q24 with earnings per vehicle recovering to RMB8.5k from RMB 6.6k in 1Q24. Going forward, we expect to see sequential improvements in both revenue per vehicle and gross profit margin by virtue of continued sales ramp up of upgraded PHEV offerings with DM5.0 technology, which is tagged with price increase of c.RMB6k than current DM4.0 products and featured with healthier gross margin.
在推出更便宜的榮耀版旗艦車型和帶有DM5.0技術的升級混動車型之後,公司在2Q24創下了新的季度交付量新高,每輛車的收益從1Q24的6.6萬元人民幣恢復到了8.5萬元人民幣。展望未來,我們預計隨着帶有DM5.0技術的升級PHEV產品的持續銷售推進,每輛車的收入和毛利率都將有序提升。這款產品的售價相比目前的DM4.0產品將提高約6萬元人民幣,並且具有更好的毛利率特點。
Fuelled by aggressive pricing campaign and sturdy product cycle with the release of Rongyao variants and DM5.0 PHEV models, BYD's YTD domestic sales performs much better than our initial forecast and it has successfully defended its market leadership with the July NEV market share rallies to 35% and PV market share hikes to 17.5% as new high, both in terms of retail numbers. Yet, we noticed that its trio premium brands have been struggled to capture market share from counterparts with slower pace of new launches and weaker audience feedback. We regard it still takes some time to observe its breakthrough in upmarket push. In terms of overseas expansion, the YTD exports growth and global capacity construction progress came in line with our estimates, which set to be the primary growth driver for BYD in mid-to-long term.
由於積極的定價策略以及榮耀版車型和DM5.0 PHEV車型的發佈帶來的強大產品週期,比亞迪的全年國內銷售業績比我們最初的預測要好得多,併成功保住了市場領導地位,7月份新能源車市場份額提升至35%,乘用車市場份額上升至17.5%,都創下新高,以零售數量計算。然而,我們注意到,比亞迪旗下的三個高端品牌在市場份額上與競爭對手相比,新產品推出的速度較慢,受衆反饋也較弱。我們認爲觀察它在高端市場推動中的突破仍需要一些時間。在海外擴張方面,全年出口增長和全球產能建設進展與我們的預期一致,這將成爲比亞迪中長期的主要增長驅動力。
To reflect stronger demand domestically, we lift our sales volume forecast for 2024E-2025E to 3.91m/4.57m units, but trim our vehicle ASP assumption due to weakening product mix and aggressive pricing strategy for both Rongyao and DM5.0. Thus, we nudge up our revenue forecasts by 1-3% to RMB714bn/794bn. Meanwhile, given potential upside for OPEX optimisation and higher government subsidies, we raise our net profit forecasts for 2024-25E by 10-11% to RMB34.8bn/35.9bn, respectively.
爲反映國內需求增強,我們調高了2024E-2025E的銷售量預測至391萬/457萬輛,但由於產品組合減弱和熔融瑤和DM5.0採取了激進的定價策略,因此調低了我們的車輛ASP假設。因此,我們將2024-2025年的營業收入預測提高了1-3%至7140億元/7940億元。同時,鑑於運營費用優化和政府補貼可能帶來的上行空間,我們將2024-2025年的淨利潤預測分別提高了10-11%,至348億元/359億元。
Currently, its H-shares trade at 17x 2024E P/E, higher than that of most other HK-listed OEM, either NEV start-ups or traditional own-brand makers. We reckon BYD's valuation premium is well supported by its deepening vertical integration in NEV supply chain and robust new model cycle led by upgraded DM5.0 offerings ahead, both of which aids to cementing its market leadership and continued earnings improvements. Thus, we maintain BUY rating with higher TP at HK$265.00, equivalent to 20x 2024E P/E.
目前,比亞迪的H股以17倍的2024E市盈率交易,高於大多數其他港股上市的新能源汽車初創企業或傳統自主品牌製造商。我們認爲比亞迪的估值溢價得到充分支持,得益於其在新能源汽車供應鏈上不斷加深的垂直一體化,以及由DM5.0升級產品領銜的強勁新車型週期,這兩者有助於鞏固其市場領導地位並持續提升盈利能力。因此,我們維持買入評級,目標價上調至265.00港元,相當於2024E市盈率的20倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。