We maintain the BUY rating of BYDE with new TP of HK$40.89 as we believe multiple growth drivers from Apple share gains, Jabil synergy, NEV product pipeline, robotics and AI server business expansion will offset earnings impact from higher expenses of Jabil integration in the near term. We lowered FY24- 26E EPS by 7-14% to factor in 1H24 results, stronger smartphone recovery, and Jabil's integration expenses. We estimate net profit to grow 8%/43% YoY in FY24/25E. We think recent share price corrections have reflected Jabil-related expenses for interest costs, and intangible asset depreciation. Trading at 13.0x/9.1x FY24/25E P/E, we see good buying opportunities for the stock. Upcoming catalysts include iPhone16 event, AI server product launches (e.g. GB200) and NEV product pipeline.
1H24 results below estimates on GPM and higher Jabil-related expenses. BYDE reported inline 1H24 revenue growth of 40% YoY, driven by strong Apple share gains, Android recovery, Jabil consolidation and strong NEV demand, while net profit growth of 0.1% YoY is below our/consensus estimate by 21%/15% YoY, mainly dragged by weaker GPM (-1ppt YoY) and intangible asset depreciation expenses (RMB450mn). Mgmt. guided 1) GPM recovery in 2H24, 2) total intangible asset depreciation expenses of ~RMB4bn will be incurred in next five years, 3) interest expense to decline significantly in 2H24E compared to RMB309mn in 1H24. We revised down FY24-26E EPS by 7-14% mainly to reflect 1H24 results and Jabil-related expenses.
2025 outlook: Apple share gains, Android recovery, NEV rapid growth, robotics/AI servers. Looking into 2025, for smartphone biz, we expect BYDE is set to benefit from iPhone AI cycle and Android high-end model demand. For NEV, mgmt. stated that product pipeline will be expanded into smart cockpit, high-end ADAS, active suspension and controllers/sensors. For robotics, BYDE will co-develop AMR robots with Nvidia focusing on factory automation. For AI dataceter, mgmt. highlighted a strong product roadmap in server (high-speed connectors, cold plate, power board), rack system (copper, UQD), CDU system, high-speed connectivity (optical modules, high-speed copper cables).
Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$40.89. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$40.89 implies 19.3x FY24E P/E. Maintain BUY. Near-term catalysts include iPhone 16 event, and NEV/AI server product launches.
我們維持比亞迪的買入評級，新的目標價爲40.89港元，因爲我們認爲蘋果股價上漲、捷普協同效應、新能源汽車產品管道、機器人和人工智能服務器業務擴張帶來的多重增長推動力將在短期內抵消捷普整合支出增加對收益的影響。考慮到24年上半年的業績、更強勁的智能手機復甦以及捷普的整合支出，我們將24-26財年的每股收益下調了7-14％。我們估計，24/25財年的淨利潤將同比增長8％/43％。我們認爲，最近的股價調整反映了與捷比爾相關的利息成本支出和無形資產折舊。24/25財年市盈率爲13.0x/9.1倍，我們認爲該股有良好的買入機會。即將到來的催化劑包括iPhone16活動、人工智能服務器產品發佈會（例如 GB200）和新能源汽車產品線。
24年上半年的業績低於預期，GpM和更高的Jabil相關支出也低於預期。比亞迪報告稱，受蘋果股價強勁增長、安卓復甦、捷普整合和強勁的新能源汽車需求的推動，24年上半年收入同比增長40％，而淨利潤同比增長21％/15％，主要受GPM疲軟（同比下降1ppt）和無形資產折舊費用（4.5億元人民幣）的拖累。管理層指導 1) 24年下半年的GPM復甦，2) 未來五年將產生約40億元人民幣的無形資產折舊總費用，3) 2H24E 的利息支出將大幅下降，而24年上半年爲3.09億元人民幣。我們將FY24-26E 每股收益下調了7-14％，主要是爲了反映24年上半年的業績和與捷普相關的支出。
2025年展望：蘋果股價上漲、安卓復甦、新能源汽車快速增長、機器人/人工智能服務器。展望2025年，對於智能手機業務而言，我們預計比亞迪將受益於iPhone的人工智能週期和安卓高端機型的需求。在新能源汽車方面，mgmt. 表示，產品線將擴展到智能座艙、高端ADAS、主動懸架和控制器/傳感器。在機器人方面，比亞迪將與英偉達共同開發AMR機器人，專注於工廠自動化。對於AI dataceter，mgmt. 重點介紹了服務器（高速連接器、冷板、電源板）、機架系統（銅纜、UQD）、CDU系統、高速連接（光學模塊、高速銅纜）領域的強大產品路線圖。
維持買入，新目標價爲40.89港元。我們新的基於止損標準的目標價爲40.89港元，這意味着19.3倍的 FY24E 市盈率。維持買入。短期催化劑包括iPhone 16活動和新能源/人工智能服務器產品的發佈。
