业绩超预期， 维持“增持”评级。2024Q2业绩在金价高位波动、行业大盘承压的情况下优于预期；但考虑到目前消费大盘表现仍较为疲弱，且金价处于高位横盘波动，对下半年的终端黄金销量释放或仍有一定抑制，且公司女包业务复苏节奏较慢，下调2024-2026 年EPS 分别为0.46/0.53/0.60 元（原值0.50/0.60/0.72 元），考虑到加盟拓店释放，驱动业绩具备成长弹性，给予2024 年13x PE，下调目标价至5.98 元（原值8.42 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
2024H1's performance has exceeded expectations, channel incentives and organizational structure have gradually been smoothed out. Franchise expansion is expected to be released at an accelerated pace, and the room for growth is worth looking forward to.
Key points of investment:
The performance exceeded expectations and maintained an “gain” rating. The 2024Q2 performance was superior to expectations in the face of high fluctuations in gold prices and pressure on the industry market; however, considering that the current consumer market performance is still weak, and the price of gold fluctuates at a high level, there may still be some suppression in terminal gold sales in the second half of the year, and the company's women's bag business recovery pace is slow. EPS for 2024-2026 was reduced to 0.46/0.53/0.60 yuan respectively (original value 0.50/0.60/0.72 yuan). Considering the release of franchise stores, the driving performance is flexible, and 13x PE will be given in 2024 and 13x PE below The target price was adjusted to 5.98 yuan (the original value was 8.42 yuan) to maintain the “gain” rating.
Performance summary: In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.431 billion yuan/yoy +14.15%, net profit attributable to mother 0.229 billions/yoy +10.04%, after deducting net profit of 0.225 billion yuan/yoy +10.06%. Among them, 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 1.635 billion yuan/yoy +10.33% in a single quarter, net profit of 0.099 billion yuan/yoy +16.76%, net profit of non-return to mother 0.097 billion yuan/yoy +16.96%. The overall performance was better than expected, mainly due to: ① the company focused on branded products and maintained growth in the same store; ② the net increase of 233 stores contributed significantly at the end of 2024H1 compared to the end of 2023H1.
The share of franchises drives gross margin downward and cost ratio optimization. The product structure is gradually stabilizing, and net interest rates are rising steadily. The company's traditional gold and fashion jewelry business bucked the trend, and the channel was steadily expanding. 2024Q2 The company's gross profit margin for a single quarter was 23.30%/-2.43pct, net profit margin of 5.92% /+0.34pct, period expense ratio 14.71%/-3.42pct, and sales/management/financial/R&D expense ratios changed year-on-year by -3.25pct/+0.15pct/-0.05pct/-0.27pct to 11.33%/2.05%/0.51%/0.81%, respectively.
The peak season for gold, nine, and silver is expected to pick up, and the release of H2 franchise stores can be expected. Gold prices fluctuated at a high level after the sharp rise in March-April 2024. With the advent of the golden, nine and silver peak season, it is worth looking forward to; 52 net stores were added in the first half of 2024 (net increase of 69 franchisees, net decrease of 17 self-operated stores), and the release of franchisees can be expected in the second half of the year, maintaining the target of a net increase of 300 stores throughout the year. With the gradual streamlining of the channel structure, it is worth looking forward to the growth space for franchisees.
Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies, and the pace of joining stores falls short of expectations.
