MEITUAN(3690.HK):CONTINUED EFFICIENCY GAIN FROM COMPETITIVE PRICING
MEITUAN(3690.HK):CONTINUED EFFICIENCY GAIN FROM COMPETITIVE PRICING
Non-IFRS earnings up 77.6% YoY to RMB13.6bn, beat consensus/our estimate, thanks to improved food delivery efficiency and significant cut on new initiatives losses. Despite the macro headwinds, the Company continues to gain operational efficiency from cross-selling and abundant rider supply. Reiterate BUY, target price lowered to HK$136.3.
非IFRS利潤同比增長77.6%至136億元人民幣，超過共識/我們的估計，得益於外賣配送效率的提高和新業務虧損的大幅減少。儘管面臨宏觀阻力，但公司繼續通過跨銷售和充足的騎手供應獲得運營效率的提高。重申買入，目標價下調至136.3港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
2Q24 revenue beat consensus by 2.3% YoY to RMB82.3bn thanks to robust on- demand delivery transactions growth supported by higher user frequency, on the back of abundant courier supply as well as management's effort to cross selling from different businesses segment.
第二季度營業收入同比增長2.3%至823億元人民幣，得益於強勁的按需配送交易增長，支持較高的用戶頻率，以及公司跨銷售不同業務板塊的努力。
Non-IFRS net profit up 77.6% YoY to RMB13.6bn, beat consensus/our estimate, thanks to improved food delivery efficiency and significant cut on new initiatives losses. Sales and marketing expense ratio decreased by 3ppts YoY and 1ppt QoQ attributable to enhanced marketing efficiency in key holidays, while R&D expense ratio also dropped 1.5ppts YoY and 0.3ppt QoQ, leading to a Non-IFRS OPM expansion by 8.2ppts YoY and 7.4ppts QoQ.
非IFRS淨利潤同比增長77.6%至136億元人民幣，超過共識/我們的估計，得益於外賣配送效率的提高和新業務虧損的大幅減少。銷售和營銷費用比率同比下降3個百分點，環比下降1個百分點，歸因於關鍵假日的營銷效率提高，而研發費用比率同比下降1.5個百分點，環比下降0.3個百分點，導致非IFRS運營利潤率同比擴大8.2個百分點，環比擴大7.4個百分點。
Core local commerce revenues increased by 18.5% YoY to RMB60.7bn in 2Q24 on the back of weak domestic economy, while the Company actively manages its business by expanding merchants supply and launching marketing campaigns to meet diversified demand.
核心本地商業收入在第二季度同比增長18.5%至607億元人民幣，受國內經濟疲軟的影響，公司通過擴大商家供應和推出市場營銷活動來積極管理業務，以滿足多樣化的需求。
New initiatives and other revenue in 2Q24 increased by 28.7% YoY to RMB21.6bn, driven by Meituan Select, "Xiao Xiang Supermarket" and "Kuai Lv". Operating loss narrowed 75% YoY to RMB1.3bn, thanks to improved operating efficiency, raising mark-ups, and closure of underperforming warehouses.
第二季度新業務和其他營收同比增長28.7%至216億元人民幣，得益於美團精選、「小象超市」和「快旅」的推動。由於提高運營效率、提高售價和關閉不良倉庫，運營虧損同比縮小75%至13億元人民幣。
Earnings change: We revised down our 2024/25/26E revenues by 0.9%/4.8%/7.6% to factor in lower ticket size in food delivery business on the back of weak domestic economy, while adjusting up net profit for 2024/25/26E by 10.6%/4.2%/4.6% reflecting companies' initiatives on improved marketing efficiencies and operating leverage and loss reduction for new initiatives.
盈利變動：我們將2024/25/26年的收入預測下調了0.9%/4.8%/7.6%，以反映國內經濟疲軟下外賣業務的票價下降，同時調高了2024/25/26年的淨利潤預測，調高幅度分別爲10.6%/4.2%/4.6%，反映了公司在提高營銷效率和運營槓桿以及減少新業務虧損方面的舉措。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Intensifying competition in food delivery and in-store market that might need incremental marketing expenditure with margin pressure; regulatory risk relating to social security expenses associated with new type of employment (riders); softer consumer spending due to macro weakness resulted in lower ticket value.
外賣概念和實體店市場的競爭加劇，可能需要增加營銷費用並面臨利潤壓力；與新型就業形式（騎手）相關的社會安全費用的監管風險；由於宏觀經濟疲軟導致消費者支出較低。
Valuation
估值
We reiterate BUY and revised down our target price from HK$140.73/share to HK$136.3/share with updated FY24-26 earnings. For the DCF valuation, our WACC 11.73% as risk free rate unchanged at 5.0% as Beta increased to 1.443 while CNY to HKD exchange rate was raised to 1.09, while we factor in 2% share elimination after share repurchasing program by the end of 2Q24.
我們重申買入，將我們的目標價從每股港幣140.73下調至每股港幣136.3，考慮到更新後的FY24-26盈利。對於DCF估值，我們的WACC保持在11.73％，無風險利率爲5.0％，貝塔係數增加到1.443，CNY兌HKD的匯率上調爲1.09，同時考慮到2Q24結束後回購計劃後股份減少2%。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。