CHINA RESOURCES LAND(1109.HK):STRONG RECURRING INCOME AND SIZABLE UNBOOKED REVENUE
CHINA RESOURCES LAND(1109.HK):STRONG RECURRING INCOME AND SIZABLE UNBOOKED REVENUE
CR Land' 7M24 contracted sales amounted to RMB140bn, down 25.2% YoY, with the rate of decline better than most peers. Saleable resources for FY24 amount to RMB530.8bn, among which 88% is located in tier-1 and 2 cities. During 1H24, CR Land obtained 11 new projects with a total land premium of RMB25.6bn (attributable: RMB18.33bn), adding a total GFA of 2.02m sqm. Management pointed out that the company has shifted more focus from buying new projects to de-stocking of existing projects.CR Land's 1H24 revenue grew by 8.4% YoY to RMB79.1bn, in line with our estimation. Development property (DP) and recurring revenue grew by 8.3% YoY and 9.0% YoY, respectively, in line with our estimation. DP revenue grew despite the decline in contracted sales, which we believe was thanks to sizable unbooked revenue (end-2023: RMB284bn, end-1H24: RMB321bn). Gross margin narrowed by 3.4ppts to 22.3%. Development property gross margin narrowed by 4.6ppts to 12.4%, worse than the 15% we estimated, while investment property (IP) gross margin improved by 0.2ppt to 71.5%. The worse-than- expected gross margin was partially offset by less-than-expected SG&A expenses as % of revenue, which reduced by 1ppt. As a result, core net profit declined by 4.7% YoY, in line with our estimation. Recurring business contributed 25.3% of revenue and 51.4% of core net profit in 1H24. We cut our 2024-26E core EPS by 3.1-5.3%, respectively, applying more conservative assumptions on gross margin, and cut our TP by 4.1% to HK$34.61. We like CR Land's strong recurring income and solid financial position. Maintain BUY rating.
中國恒大人氣有限公司的營業收入在上半年24年同比增長8.4%至791億元，與我們的估計相符。開發物業（DP）和持續收入分別同比增長8.3%和9.0%，與我們的估計相符。儘管簽約銷售額下降，但開發物業營業收入仍有增長，我們相信這歸因於可觀的未入賬收入（2023年底：2840億元，上半年24年底：3210億元）。毛利率下降3.4個百分點至22.3%。開發物業毛利率下降4.6個百分點至12.4%，低於我們預計的15%，而投資物業（IP）毛利率提高了0.2個百分點至71.5%。較預期差的毛利率部分被低於預期的銷售和管理費用所抵消，銷售和管理費用佔營業收入的比例降低了1個百分點。因此，核心淨利潤同比下降4.7%，與我們的估計相符。持續業務佔營收的25.3%和核心淨利潤的51.4%。我們下調了2024-26年E核心每股收益分別爲3.1-5.3%，分別採用更加保守的毛利率假設，並將目標價下調4.1%至34.61港元。我們對中國恒大人氣有限公司的持續收入和穩健的財務狀況持有買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Revenue from recurring business increased by 9% YoY to RMB20bn, accounting for 25.3% of total revenue, up 0.2ppt YoY. Core net profit from recurring business increased by 14.4% YoY to RMB5.5bn, accounting for 51.4% of total core net profit, up 8.6ppts YoY. Revenue from IP grew by 7% YoY, with gross margin improving by 0.2ppt to 71.5%. Rental income from shopping malls increased by 9.7% YoY, with gross margin improving by 0.6ppt to 77.7%. Retail sales grew 21.9% YoY, with SSSG being 7.5% YoY. Retail sales of luxury malls and non-luxury malls grew by 16.7% YoY and 25.7% YoY, respectively. 6 new shopping malls were launched in 1H24, and another 10 are to be opened in 2H24.
持續業務的營業收入同比增長9%至200億元，佔總營收的25.3%，同比增加0.2個百分點。持續業務的核心淨利潤同比增長14.4%至55億元，佔總核心淨利潤的51.4%，同比增長8.6個百分點。來自投資物業的營業收入同比增長7%，毛利率提高了0.2個百分點至71.5%。購物中心的租金收入同比增長9.7%，毛利率提高了0.6個百分點至77.7%。零售銷售同比增長21.9%，單店銷售同比增長7.5%。奢侈品購物中心和非奢侈品購物中心的零售銷售分別同比增長16.7%和25.7%。上半年24年新開業6個購物中心，下半年24年將有10個購物中心開業。
CR Land' 7M24 contracted sales amounted to RMB140bn, down 25.2% YoY, with the rate of decline better than most peers. Saleable resources for FY24 amount to RMB530.8bn, among which 88% is located in tier-1 and 2 cities. During 1H24, CR Land obtained 11 new projects with a total land premium of RMB25.6bn (attributable: RMB18.33bn), adding a total GFA of 2.02m sqm. Management pointed out that the company has shifted more focus from buying new projects to de-stocking of existing projects.
中國恒大人氣有限公司截至7月24日的簽約銷售額達到1400億元，同比下降25.2%，下降速度優於大多數同行。2024財年可售資源總額爲5308億元，其中88%位於一、二線城市。上半年24年，中國恒大人氣有限公司獲得了11個新項目，土地出讓金總額爲256億元（歸屬公司的約183.3億元），新增建築面積總計202萬平方米。管理層指出，公司已將更多關注點從購買新項目轉向清理庫存的現有項目。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Luxury consumption may slow down under challenging economic environment
在挑戰性經濟環境下，豪華消費可能放緩。
Valuation
估值
We cut our estimated NAV by 4.1% to HK$38.45/share, applying more conservative margin assumptions. The stock currently trades at 0.5x 2024E P/B and 45.6% discount to NAV, which we think is undemanding, given CR Land's solid financial position and strong recurring income.
我們將預計的每股資產淨值下調4.1%至38.45港元/股，並採用更加保守的利潤率假設。該股目前以2024E市淨率的0.5倍和與資產淨值相比的45.6%折價交易，考慮到CR Land堅實的財務狀況和強勁的持續收入，我們認爲這是合理的。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
