维持增持评级 。公司2024H1实现收入377.86亿元（-1.57%），归母净利润7.43 亿元（-10.45%），扣非归母净利润7.11 亿元（-10.48%），其中对联营企业投资收益2.27 亿（+44.8%）；2024Q2 实现收入186.95亿元（-5.1%），归母净利润3.55 亿元（-24.2%），扣非归母净利润3.42 亿元（-22.9%），业绩略低于预期。下调2024-2026 年EPS 预测至2.98/3.33/3.73 元（原3.19/3.53/3.86 元），给予2024 年PE10.4X，下调目标价至30.99 元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The growth rate of distribution and retail sales is under phased pressure. As the external environment improves and the company's strategic optimization measures continue to be promoted, performance is expected to grow steadily and maintain an increase in holdings rating.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. In 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 37.786 billion yuan (-1.57%), net profit due to mother of 0.743 billion yuan (-10.45%), net profit not attributable to mother of 0.711 billion yuan (-10.48%), including income from investment in associated enterprises of 0.227 billion yuan (+44.8%); 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 18.695 billion yuan (-5.1%), net profit to mother 0.355 billion yuan (-24.2%) After deducting non-attributable net profit of 0.342 billion yuan (-22.9%), the performance was slightly lower than expected. The 2024-2026 EPS forecast was lowered to 2.98/3.33/3.73 yuan (originally 3.19/3.53/3.86 yuan), the 2024 PE 10.4X was given, and the target price was lowered to 30.99 yuan, maintaining the increase rating.
Distribution growth is slowing down, and downstream repayments affect profit levels. The 2024H1 distribution business achieved revenue of 27.079 billion yuan (+2.11%), of which Q1/2 was +6.77%/-2.42%, and the decline in 2024Q2 growth is expected to be mainly affected by industry rectification; net profit of 0.523 billion yuan (-1.48%), of which Q1/2 was +10.1%/-9.6% respectively. The decline in profit was mainly due to increased capital occupancy and capital costs due to delays in payables, so the 2024Q2 financial expense ratio reached 0.4% (+ 0.24pp). The 2024H1 wholesale gross profit margin is 5.74% (+0.08pp), which is relatively stable.
The performance of NUS Pharmacies is under pressure due to multiple factors. 2024H1 National University Pharmacies achieved revenue of 11.2 billion yuan (-9.3%), and Q1/2 was -8.3%/-10.2% respectively. It is expected that sales of cold medicines/some non-drugs will slow down month by month due to ① household inventory; ② the return of some patients to hospitals under the overall outpatient policy; ③ delays in the impact of personal account reform, etc. The 2024H1 retail gross profit margin was 22.68% (-2.06pp), which is a significant decline. It is expected to be mainly related to the increase in the share of prescription drugs (2024H1 60%, +7pp) and increased competition. Affected by this compounded cost rigidity, the net profit of 2024H1 National University Pharmacy was 0.014 billion yuan (-105%). As sales of cold medicines stabilize and co-ordinated stores gradually expand (4,590 co-ordinated stores, accounting for 53% of the company's directly managed stores), retail revenue is expected to grow steadily. As of 2024H1, Guoda Pharmacy added 324/105 direct-operated/franchised stores, bringing the total number of stores to 10,702 (including 2026 franchisees). The company is slowing down the pace of opening stores and improving the quality of operations, which is expected to boost profitability.
Actively optimize strategies to enhance profitability. In terms of distribution, there is a decline in quality, focusing on increasing share and gross profit; on the retail side, leveraging the subjective initiative of subsidiaries, improving the quality of individual stores (upgrading old stores, reducing rent, etc.), optimizing product structure, and improving professional service capabilities, etc., it is expected that profitability will increase.
Risk warning: Profit improvements fell short of expectations, and prescription outflows fell short of expectations.
