GREENTOWN SERVICE(2869.HK):SOLID 1H24 AGAINST INDUSTRY HEADWINDS
GREENTOWN SERVICE(2869.HK):SOLID 1H24 AGAINST INDUSTRY HEADWINDS
Greentown Service's revenue/core operating profit went up 11/26% YoY in 1H24, in-line with/beating market expectations buoyed by a stable parent company, robust third-party expansion, and a diversified VAS business. Core OPM expanded 1.2ppt YoY to 9.8%, resulting from a +0.6ppt GP margin hike and a 0.6ppt decrease in SG&A ratio attributable to efficient cost control. Amid intensified competition in third-party expansion, the company delivered steady conversion from parentco projects to mitigate headwinds. Despite a challenging industry environment, the company still anticipates core OP growth >20% & cash growth >15% in 2024E. We like Greentown Service for its high independence, stable parentco, diversified VAS business and recovering cash flow. Maintain BUY with TP revised up 3% to HK$ 6.13 to reflect a better outlook than peers'. The TP represents 25x 2024E P/E.
綠城服務的營業收入/核心營業利潤在2024上半年同比增長11%/26%,符合/超出市場預期,得益於穩定的母公司、強勁的第三方擴張和多元化的增值服務業務。核心運營利潤率同比增加1.2個百分點,達到9.8%,其中0.6個百分點來自毛利率提高,0.6個百分點來自有效控制成本導致的銷售和行政費用率下降。在第三方擴張競爭加劇的環境下,該公司通過穩定地將母公司項目轉化爲減輕壓力。儘管行業環境嚴峻,但公司仍預計2024年核心營業利潤增長超過20%和現金增長超過15%。我們喜歡綠城服務,因爲它具有高度的獨立性、穩定的母公司、多元化的增值服務業務和正在恢復的現金流。維持買入評級,目標價上調3%,至6.13港元,以反映出比同行更好的前景。目標價代表2024年市盈率25倍。
1H24 revenue in-line, earnings beat. Greentown Service delivered 10.6%/25.8% YoY growth in revenue/core OP in 1H24 (core OP= GP-SG&A), with rev. in line and core operating profit beating market expectation. This performance was driven by 1) steady growth of 14.6% YoY in Basic PM revenue; 2) positive growth in VAS to both owners and non-owners against the negative trends among peers, attributed to its robust parentco and diversified VAS business; 3) efficient cost management leading to a 0.6ppt improvement in GPM and 0.6ppt cut in SG&A ratio, which combined enhanced core OPM by 1.2ppt. Greentown Service lifted the guidance from >15% to >20% for full-year core OP growth. And the share incentive plan requires 60% growth over the next 3 years.
2024上半年的營業收入符合預期,盈利超出預期。綠城服務在2024上半年的營業收入/核心營業利潤同比增長10.6%/25.8%,其中核心營業利潤=毛利-銷售與行政費用。營收符合預期,核心營業利潤超出市場預期。這一業績的推動因素包括:1)基本物業管理業務收入同比穩定增長14.6%;2)對內、對外增值服務業務正增長,與同行業負增長趨勢相對應,歸功於穩健的母公司和多元化的增值服務業務;3)高效的成本管理導致毛利率提高0.6個百分點,銷售與行政費用率降低0.6個百分點,兩者合併提升核心營業利潤率1.2個百分點。綠城服務將全年核心營業利潤增長目標從15%以上上調至20%以上。股權激勵計劃要求未來3年實現60%的增長。
Parentco GFA conversion mitigates third party competition pressure. The net increase in managed GFA from Greentown Real Estate surged 227% YoY compared to -42% from third parties , leading to Greentown RE's contribution in managed GFA rising to 18.2% in 1H24 from 14.8%/15.7% in 1H23/FY23. Total managed GFA increased 16% YoY with new contracted value up 3%, representing a steady APS hike and solid conversion from reserved GFA.
母公司新增規模轉化減輕第三方競爭壓力。綠城房地產管理的母公司自有管理面積同比增長227%,而第三方管理面積同比下降42%,致使綠城房地產在2024上半年自有管理面積的貢獻率從2023上半年/2023年全年的14.8%/15.7%上升到18.2%。管理面積總數同比增長16%,新簽約價值增長3%,顯示穩定的每平米單價提高和已預留管理面積的有效轉化。
Expect 15% cash growth in FY24E. Broad cash balance reached RMB 4.3bn, down -12% YoY, due to 1) accounts receivable increasing 24% from end-2023 to RMB 6.3bn, impacted by economic headwinds affecting owners' payment capabilities and property fee collections concentrating at year-end, and 2) active share buybacks consuming funds. The company expects AR growth to decelerate in 2H24 and will continue with proactive share repurchases, anticipating a 15% YoY increase in cash on hand by the end of 2024.
預計FY24E現金增長15%。廣義現金餘額達到43億元人民幣,同比下降12%,原因是1)應收賬款從2023年底增長24%,達到63億元人民幣,受經濟逆風影響,業主支付能力以及物業費集中於年底,並且2)積極回購股份消耗資金。“公司預計2H24應收賬款的增長將減速,並將繼續積極回購股份,預計到2024年底手頭現金增長15%。
Valuation: Given Greentown Service's high independence, stable parentco, and diversified VAS business, we maintain BUY rating with TP up 3% to HK$ 6.13 to reflect a better outlook than peers'. The TP represents 25x 2024E P/E. Risks: AR impairment, intensified competition.
估值:考慮到綠城服務的高獨立性、穩定的母公司和多元化的增值業務,我們維持買入評級,目標價上調3%至6.13港元,以反映比同行業更好的前景。目標價代表2024E市盈率25倍。風險:應收賬款減值、競爭加劇。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。