分业务来看：1）船用链及附件：24H1 实现收入6.81 亿元，同比+4%，增速有所放缓；2）系泊链：24H1 实现收入2.35 亿元，同比-30%，短期承压。24H1 公司承接订单10.89 亿元，其中船舶锚链9.09 亿元，海洋平台系泊链1.80 亿元。往下半年来看，一方面23H2 以来公司船舶锚链订单高增，24H2 有望加速确收，叠加系泊链订单陆续确收，看好24H2 业绩释放。Incident Overview
The company released its 2024 mid-year report.
Revenue from 24H1 mooring chains was under pressure in the short term. With strong new orders for ship anchor chains, 24H1 achieved operating income of 0.936 billion yuan, -8% year-on-year, of which Q2 was 0.487 billion yuan, or -7% year-on-year, which is basically in line with expectations.
By business: 1) Marine chains and accessories: 24H1 achieved revenue of 0.681 billion yuan, +4% year over year, growth rate slowed; 2) Mooring chain: 24H1 achieved revenue of 0.235 billion yuan, -30% YoY, under short-term pressure. 24H1 undertook orders of 1.089 billion yuan, including 0.909 billion yuan for ship anchor chains and 0.18 billion yuan for offshore platform mooring chains. Looking at the second half of the year, on the one hand, the company's ship anchor chain orders have increased since 23H2. 24H2 is expected to be confirmed at an accelerated pace, and superimposed mooring chain orders have been received one after another, and I am optimistic about the release of 24H2's performance.
Increased gross margin & large fair value change earnings. The Q2 profit side exceeded previous expectations. 24H1's net profit to mother was 0.139 billion yuan, +27% year over year, of which Q2 was 0.071 billion yuan, +40% year over year; 24H1 net profit without return to mother was 0.094 billion yuan, +11% year over year, of which Q2 was 0.049 billion yuan, +28% year over year, and the profit side exceeded previous expectations. 24H1's net sales interest rate and net sales margin after deducting non-sales were 15.13% and 9.99%, respectively, compared with +4.00 and +1.68pct, respectively. The profit level increased markedly. 1) Margin side: 24H1 gross sales margin was 27.40%, +0.92pct year on year. We determined that it mainly benefited from the decline in raw material prices and product structure optimization; 2) Cost side: the cost rate during the 24H1 period was 14.23%, -0.29pct year over year, with sales, management, R&D and financial expenses ratios of -0.04, +0.79, +0.66 and -1.71 pct, respectively. 3) 24H1's net investment income was 12.66 million yuan, +28% year over year, and net income from fair value change was 41.1 million yuan, +113% year over year, which significantly increased profit margins.
The “three arrows go hand in hand” for anchor chains, mooring chains, and mining chains. Floating offshore wind power opens up room for growth as a global chain leader. The company is fully benefiting from the high boom in the shipping and offshore industry. At the same time, the mining chain is expected to enter the 1-N acceleration phase, and the basic market is in an upward channel. 1) Ship anchor chain: In 2023 and 2024H1, China's shipbuilding received new orders of 71.2 and 54.22 million DWT, respectively. The shipbuilding industry sentiment remains high, and the company's ship anchor chain is expected to fully benefit; 2) Offshore mooring chain: The company's mooring chain will fully benefit from the upward trend in the offshore industry and deep-sea oil and gas development; 3) Mining chain: Domestic replacement is the main growth logic, and the company is expected to enter the rapid release phase. Furthermore, under the deep-sea trend, floating offshore wind power is a medium- to long-term development trend. At the end of 2022, China Power Construction's Hainan Wanning 1 million kilowatt floating offshore wind power project officially started. It is planned to install a total capacity of 1 GW. At the end of 2023 and April 2024, the first phase of the 100MW host and floating body tenders will be completed, respectively. Industrialization is progressing rapidly. The company has a strong first-mover advantage in the field of mooring chains and is expected to fully benefit from the 0 to 1 development of floating offshore wind power.
Investment advice
Taking into account the company's order signing pace, we adjusted the profit forecast for 2024-2026. The estimated revenue is 23.05 billion yuan, 29.41 billion yuan, and 3,587 billion yuan (original value of 2,414, 29.69 billion yuan, and 3,639 billion yuan), respectively, +19%, +28%, and +22%, respectively; net profit to mother is estimated to be 2.80, 3.47, and 441 billion yuan respectively (original value 0.297, 0.377, 0.481 billion yuan), and + 27%; EPS is expected to be 0.29, 0.36, and 0.46 yuan in 2024-2026 (original value 0.31, 0.39, and 0.50 yuan), respectively. The closing price of 6.69 yuan on August 26, 2024 was 27, 22, and 17 times PE, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
The shipbuilding and offshore industry is declining, the competitive landscape is deteriorating, and the industrialization of floating offshore wind power falls short of expectations, etc.
