运营服务贡献突出。公司开发业务收入为337.6 亿元，较2023 年同期下降32.3%，总收入占比72.0%。开发业务方面，公司交付物业总建筑面积为302.9万平，开发业务结算毛利率为7.4%，较2023 年同期下降6.9 个百分点，均价为11145 元╱平。运营业务租金收入（不含税）为66.1 亿元，较2023 年同期增长4.3%，总收入占比14.1%。公司物业管理及相关服务收入为64.9亿元，较2023 年同期增长11.1%，总收入占比13.8%；结算毛利率为32.3%，较2023 年同期增长0.4 个百分点。Key points of investment:
Revenue and profit declined year over year. The company's 1H revenue in 2024 was 46.86 billion yuan, down 24.5% from the same period in 2023. Among them, operating and service revenue was 13.1 billion yuan, up 7.6% year on year; net profit to mother was 5.87 billion yuan, down 27.2% year on year. Excluding changes in fair value, etc., core profit to mother fell 27.9% year on year to 4.75 billion yuan. Among them, the operation and service business contributed more than 80%. In 2024, 1H's gross margin was 20.6%, down 1.8 percentage points from the same period in 2023; the core profit margin after tax was 11.7%, down 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2023; and the profit margin after tax to the mother was 10.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the same period in 2023.
The company's basic profit per share for the year 2024 was 0.90 yuan, and the basic profit per share was 0.73 yuan after excluding effects such as changes in fair value. The Board resolved to announce an interim dividend of $0.22 per share.
The contribution of operational services is outstanding. The company's development business revenue was 33.76 billion yuan, down 32.3% from the same period in 2023, accounting for 72.0% of total revenue. In terms of development business, the total construction area of the property delivered by the company was 3.029 million square meters, and the gross margin for development business settlement was 7.4%, down 6.9 percentage points from the same period in 2023, and the average price was 11,145 yuan/square meter. Rental income from operating operations (excluding tax) was 6.61 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% over the same period in 2023, accounting for 14.1% of total revenue. The company's revenue from property management and related services was 6.49 billion yuan, up 11.1% from the same period in 2023, accounting for 13.8% of total revenue; gross settlement margin was 32.3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the same period in 2023.
The debt structure is healthy, and the pressure on financing costs is falling. By the end of 2024, the company's comprehensive loan was $187.42 billion, cash on hand was $50.06 billion, net debt ratio was 56.7%, and the balance ratio after excluding advance payments was 58.6%. By the end of 2024, the company's average borrowing cost was 4.16% per annum, and the average loan period was 9.19 years; unsecured debt accounted for 47.5% of total debt; debt maturing within one year was 29.41 billion yuan, accounting for 15.7% of total debt. The short-term cash debt ratio was 1.01 times.
The company's credit ratings are BB+ (Standard & Poor's), Ba2 (Moody's), BB+ (Fitch), and AAA (China Integrity Assessment, New Century).
Investment advice: Maintain an “better than the market” rating. We estimate that the company's 2024 EPS will be approximately RMB 1.69. We give the company a PE valuation of 6-7 times in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of RMB 10.12-11.81 (HK$11.00-HK$12.84) per share. (Not specified in this article; all prices are in RMB, 1 HKD = 0.92 RMB).
Risk warning. Industry sales are under downward pressure.
