零售气量利齐升有望持续。截至2024 年6 月底，公司共有260 个城市燃气项目，覆盖全国20 个省市及自治区，且多数项目位于东部经济发达地区。1H24 公司零售气量127.10亿 m3，同比增长4.5%。居民气量为30.01 亿m3，同比增长3.1%；工商户气量95.61亿m3，同比增长5.4%。天然气分销收入同比下降3.95%至444.70 亿元，但仍为公司营收主体部分，贡献公司总收入的66.91%。随着全国范围内居民气顺价机制加速推进，公司零售气毛差有望继续提升，我们看好公司零售气量维持量利齐升趋势。Key points of investment:
Incident: The company released its 2024 semi-annual report, achieving total revenue of 67.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; net profit to mother was 2.53 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8% over the previous year. Core profit of 2.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%, mainly due to the contraction in the scale of the subsidiary Xinao Energy Wholesale Gas's overseas trade business and the year-on-year decline in international LNG prices. The company's performance is basically in line with our expectations.
The platform's trading gas has increased significantly domestically, and the combination of physical paper has stabilized profit conditions. The company actively explores the platform trading gas market. In the first half of the year, the sales volume of platform trading gas reached 2.705 billion m3, an increase of 21.0% over the previous year, and a gross profit margin of 23.49%. Its domestic gas volume in China increased by 51.9% to 1.741 billion m3, adding 129 new customers. Domestic platforms have achieved remarkable results in developing gas customers. International gas prices continued to fall. The average spot price of TTF in the 1H24 Netherlands fell 33.27% year on year to 29.55 euros/megawatt hour, and the average spot price of LNG in Northeast Asia fell 27.32% to 10.25 US dollars/million baht. The room for international resource arbitrage gradually weakened, and 1H24's international platform trading volume fell 11.6% to 0.964 billion m 0.3 billion. The company adopts a business model combining physical paper to strengthen risk management and control. With the gradual implementation of the company's general cooperation in 2025-2026, the company's platform trading volume is expected to grow rapidly.
The sharp rise in retail sales is expected to continue. By the end of June 2024, the company had 260 urban gas projects, covering 20 provinces, cities and autonomous regions across the country, and most of the projects were located in economically developed regions in the east. 1H24's retail gas volume was 12.71 billion m3, up 4.5% year over year. Residential gas volume was 3.001 billion m3, up 3.1% year on year; commercial gas volume was 9.561 billion m3, up 5.4% year on year. Natural gas distribution revenue fell 3.95% year over year to 44.47 billion yuan, but it is still the main part of the company's revenue, contributing 66.91% of the company's total revenue. With the acceleration of the domestic gas price mechanism across the country, the company's retail gas margin is expected to continue to rise. We are optimistic that the company's retail gas volume will maintain a steady upward trend.
The volume of handling at the Zhoushan receiving station increased steadily over the same period last year. The loading capacity of the Zhoushan terminal under 1H24 Company was 1.02 million tons, an increase of 14.06% over the previous year. Downstream demand in Zhoushan and surrounding areas is strong, and industries such as gas generators and new samples are expected to drive LNG consumption growth and help the production capacity of receiving stations continue to climb.
Liabilities have been continuously optimized, and financial cost savings have been remarkable. By the end of June 2024, the company's total debt was 30.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5 billion yuan. The company replaced high-interest US dollar bonds and medium- to long-term project loans through domestic low-interest RMB loans to optimize the financial structure. According to the company's mid-term results conference, 1H24's loan interest rate dropped by 22bps to 3.31%.
The size of debt decreased, financial costs decreased, compounded by an increase in the size of US dollar deposits. The company's interest expenses decreased year on year and interest income increased. 1H24's financial expenses were 0.502 billion yuan, down 0.693 billion yuan year on year.
Profit forecast and valuation: According to the company's dividend plan, the 2024-2025 dividend amount is not less than 1.03 or 1.14 yuan/share. High dividends increase the company's long-term investment value. We maintain the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 6.09, 6.709, and 7.894 billion yuan. The current stock price is 9, 8, and 7 times PE, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of high fluctuations in natural gas prices, retail gas sales falling short of expectations
