Morgan Stanley Slashes Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast For 2024: Report
Morgan Stanley Slashes Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast For 2024: Report
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts reportedly lowered the global oil demand growth forecast for 2024.
據報道，摩根士丹利（紐交所:MS）分析師預計2024年全球石油需求增長預測。
The bank cited slower economic growth in China, increased electric vehicle adoption, and a rise in LNG-powered trucks in the country, reported Reuters.
銀行指出中國經濟增速放緩，電動汽車普及率提高以及該國LNG動力卡車增加，據路透社報道。
In particular, the bank reduced its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.2 mbpd.
具體來說，該銀行將其2024年全球石油需求增長預測從1.2萬桶/日（mbpd）降至110萬桶/日。
Morgan Stanley also lowered its Brent price forecast, expecting prices to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter, down from the previous estimate of $85 per barrel.
摩根士丹利還將其布倫特原油價格預測下調，預計第四季度的平均價格爲每桶80美元，低於先前的每桶85美元的預估。
As per the report, Brent crude traded around $78 per barrel on Friday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $74.52.
根據報告，布倫特原油週五交易價格約爲每桶78美元，而美國西德克薩斯中質原油期貨價格爲每桶74.52美元。
Analysts noted that China's shift to LNG trucks has reduced oil demand growth by 100-150 kbd, and EV adoption has displaced about 100 kbd of gasoline demand.
分析師指出，中國轉向LNG卡車將減少每日100-150千桶的石油需求增長，電動汽車的採用將取代大約100千桶的汽油需求。
The oil market is tight, with inventories down by 1.2 million barrels per day over the past four weeks. Morgan Stanley analysts expect this trend to continue through the third quarter.
石油市場緊張，過去四周庫存減少了120萬桶/日。摩根士丹利分析師預計這一趨勢將持續到第三季度。
Recently, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its global oil demand growth estimate for 2024 to 1.78 million barrels per day (mb/d), which is down from the previous projection of 1.85 mb/d.
最近，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）下調了其2024年全球石油需求增長預測至178萬桶/天（mb/d），低於先前的1.85 mb/d的預測。
For 2025, OPEC lowered oil demand growth globally to 2.11 mb/d vs. the prior estimate of 2.25 mb/d.
對於2025年，OPEC將全球石油需求增長率從之前的2.25 mb/d降低至2.11 mb/d。
OPEC stated, "This slight revision reflects actual data received for the first quarter of 2024 and, in some cases, the second quarter, as well as reduced expectations for China's oil demand growth in 2024."
OPEC表示：「這個輕微修正反映了2024年第一季度和部分情況下的第二季度的實際數據，以及對2024年中國石油需求增長的降低預期。」
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