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YONYOU(600588):STRUCTURAL RECOVERY ON REVENUE GROWTH LIKELY STILL TAKES TIME

YONYOU(600588):STRUCTURAL RECOVERY ON REVENUE GROWTH LIKELY STILL TAKES TIME

用友(600588):營業收入增長前景的結構性恢復可能仍需時間
招银国际 ·  08/26

Yonyou reported (23 Aug) 2Q24 results: revenue was RMB2.1bn, up 9% YoY (2Q23: -16% YoY; 1Q24: 19% YoY), 4% short of Bloomberg consensus, which we attributed to slower-than-expected revenue growth in large enterprises due to elongated deal cycle. Although cost control remains stringent, the miss on revenue growth also translates into a miss on loss reduction: net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB341mn in 2Q24 (consensus: loss of RMB205mn). We remain positive that Yonyou will benefit from increasing digitalization demand nationwide over the long term, but reiterate concern regarding impact from macro headwinds in the near term. The slow increase in cloud services ARR contribution, as well as the rising R&D capitalization ratio still point to an uneasy loss reduction trajectory in the near term, and management may need to strive hard to reach its full-year target of turning into profitability in 2024, especially amid current macro backdrop. We maintain HOLD with a new target price of RMB9.08 (was RMB12.11), based on 3.1x 2024E EV/Sales (was 3.7x).

用友報告了2024年第二季度的業績(8月23日):營業收入爲21億元人民幣,同比增長9%(2023年第二季度:同比下降16%;2024年第一季度:同比增長19%),低於彭博共識4%,我們認爲這歸因於大型企業收入增長較慢,因爲交易週期延長。儘管成本控制依然嚴格,但營收增長的缺失也導致損失減少的缺失:2024年第二季度普通股股東應占淨虧損爲3.41億元人民幣(共識:虧損2.05億元人民幣)。我們繼續看好用友將從長期內全國數字化需求增加中受益,但同時重申對近期宏觀逆風影響的擔憂。雲服務ARR貢獻的增長緩慢,以及研發資本化率的上升仍然指向近期損失減少軌跡的不穩定,管理層可能需要努力實現2024年全年實現盈利的目標,尤其是在當前宏觀環境下。我們保持對其的持有,並設置新的9.08億元人民幣的目標價(原來是12.11億元人民幣),基於2024E EV/銷售的3.1倍(原來是3.7倍)。

Macro headwinds and elongated deal cycle weighed on 2Q24 revenue growth. In 2Q24, cloud services revenue was RMB1.6bn, up 14% YoY (2Q23: -10%; 1Q24: 32%) and ERP revenue fell 10% YoY to RMB428mn. As a percentage of revenue, cloud services revenue contribution increased to 77% of total, up 3pp YoY. Revenue generated from large/mid-sized enterprise/small and micro sized businesses came in at RMB1.3bn/311mn/243mn for 2Q24, with respective growth of 5%/11%/33% YoY (2Q23: -20%/-6%/3%). Management attributed the slower-than- expected growth of large enterprises to elongated deal cycle, but noted a sequential recovery in contract value growth in Jul. We are positive on the revenue growth recovery of large enterprises, as Yonyou is making solid progress in new logos, and the launch of super version of YonBIP should provide additional support.

宏觀逆風和交易週期延長拖累了2024年第二季度的營收增長。2024年第二季度,雲服務營收爲16億元人民幣,同比增長14%(2023年第二季度:同比下降10%;2024年第一季度:同比增長32%),ERP收入同比下降10%至4.28億元人民幣。作爲營收的比例,雲服務營收貢獻佔總營收的77%,同比增加了3個百分點。大型/中型企業/小微企業在2024年第二季度的營收分別爲13億元/3.11億元/2.43億元,同比增長分別爲5%/11%/33%(2023年第二季度:同比下降20%/-6%/3%)。管理層將大型企業增長較慢歸因於交易週期延長,但指出7月份合同價值增長逐步恢復。我們對大型企業營收增長的恢復持積極態度,因爲用友在新標誌方面取得了實質性進展,YonBIP超級版的推出應對其提供了額外支持。

Recovery in GPM inline with management expectation, but continuous increase in R&D capitalization rate remains a concern. GPM improved by 1.8pp YoY to 54.0% in 2Q24, driven by increase in revenue contribution from cloud services, and was 1.2pp better than consensus. Management is confident on driving GPM back to over 55% in the coming quarters, driven by operating efficiency gains. As for operating expenses, S&M expenses grew 2% YoY in 2Q24 (30.8% of total revenue, -2.0ppts YoY), administrative expenses was flat YoY in 2Q24 (13.2% of revenue, -1.1ppts YoY), and R&D expenses was down 1% YoY in 2Q24 (25.1% of total revenue, -2.4ppts YoY). However, we noticed that R&D expense that capitalized increased to 51.3% of total in 1H24 (1H23: 47.7%; 2023: 50%), which partly aided the optimization in R&D expenses ratio.

GPm的恢復符合管理層的預期,但R&D資本化率的持續增加仍然令人擔憂。2024年第二季度,GPm同比提高1.8個百分點至54.0%,受益於雲服務的營收貢獻增加,並比共識好1.2個百分點。管理層有信心在未來幾個季度將GPm提升至55%以上,這得益於運營效率的提高。至於營業費用,銷售費用在2024年第二季度同比增長2%(佔總營收的30.8%,同比下降2.0個百分點),管理費用在2024年第二季度同比持平(佔營收的13.2%,同比下降1.1個百分點),研發費用在2024年第二季度同比下降1%(佔總營收的25.1%,同比下降2.4個百分點)。然而,我們注意到資本化的研發費用在2024年上半年佔總費用的51.3%(2023年上半年:47.7%;2023年:50%),這在一定程度上促進了研發費用比率的優化。

Maintain HOLD with a new TP of RMB9.08. We lower 2024-2026E revenue forecast by 3-4% due to slower-than-expected revenue growth in large enterprises, and our new TP was based on 3.1x 2024E EV/sales, inline with one-year average minus 1 s.d (was 3.7x, inline with two-year average minus two s.d.).

維持對該股的持有評級,目標價調整爲9.08人民幣。由於大型企業的營業收入增長低於預期,我們將2024-2026年的營業收入預測下調3-4%。我們的新目標價基於2024年的市銷率(EV/sales)爲3.1倍,與一年平均值減去1倍標準差相符(之前爲3.7倍,與兩年平均值減去兩倍標準差相符)。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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