INNOLIGHT(300308):SOLID 1H24 RESULTS W/ STEADY MARGIN; KEY INVESTOR CALL TAKEAWAY W/ STRONG DEMAND OUTLOOK IN 2H24
INNOLIGHT(300308):SOLID 1H24 RESULTS W/ STEADY MARGIN; KEY INVESTOR CALL TAKEAWAY W/ STRONG DEMAND OUTLOOK IN 2H24
Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP at RMB150.76. We believe the market demand, both overseas and domestic, for Innolight's high-speed optical products will remain robust in the near term, paving the way for a solid growth trajectory for the company. We expect hyperscalers (CSP3 & Meta) to continue their investments in datacenter infrastructure. Nvidia is set to release its 2QFY25 earnings after market close on Aug 28th. We believe Nvidia's earnings will act as a key market catalyst especially for the AI infrastructure sector that has been under the spotlight over the past few months. Potential risks include: 1) intensified geopolitical tensions, 2) slower-than-expected new product ramp-up progress, 3) a slowdown in cloud capital spending, and 4) supply chain bottleneck.Innolight has released 1H24 results, with revenue surging by 170% YoY to RMB10.8bn and net profit growing by 284% YoY to RMB2.4bn. The company's 1H24 revenue/NP accounted for 45%/43% of our FY24E forecast. GPM improved further to 33% in 1H24. NPM rose to 22% (+6.5ppt YoY) in 1H24 on enhanced operational efficiency. From a quarterly standpoint, 2Q24 revenue/NP rose by 175%/271% YoY and 23%/34% QoQ, while GPM and NPM were 33.4%/23% (vs. 32.8%/21% in 1Q24 and 33%/20% in FY23). We maintain our bullish outlook on Innolight, driven by the sustained strong demand for its 800G/400G products and its strategic positioning to capitalize on the long-term AI momentum. Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP at RMB150.76, based on the same 30x 2024E P/E (both unchanged).
旭日光電發佈了2024上半年的業績報告，營業收入同比增長170%，達到108億元人民幣，淨利潤同比增長284%，達到24億元人民幣。2024上半年，公司的營收/淨利潤佔我們的2024年全年預測的45%/43%。毛利率進一步提高，達到33%；淨利潤率在增強的運營效率下上升到22%，同比增加了6.5個百分點。從季度角度看，2024第二季度的營收/淨利潤同比增長175%/271%，環比增長23%/34%，而毛利率和淨利潤率分別爲33.4%/23%（與2024第一季度的32.8%/21%、2023財年的33%/20%相比）。我們對旭日光電保持看好態度，原因是其800G/400G產品持續強勁需求和長期人工智能趨勢下的戰略定位。維持買入評級，目標價不變，爲150.76人民幣，基於2024年市盈率30倍（均保持不變）。
Key 1H24 earnings call takeaways. Mgmt. reiterated a strong demand outlook for 2H24, as the company will continue to expand capacity to meet downstream demand. From the latest earnings releases, CSP3 (Amazon, Microsoft and Google) and Meta's capex grew by more than 50% YoY in 1H24 and is projected to grow by 39%/13% in 2024/25E, which confirms that the AI infrastructure investment theme remains intact. Given the tailwind, we believe the company's 400G+ product shipments will continue to increase. We maintain our revenue forecasts for Innolight at RMB24/34bn in FY24/25E (123%/43% YoY), driven by AI investing momentum, capacity expansion, and increasing shipments of 1.6T products in 2H24.
2024上半年業績會要點：管理層重申了下半年的強勁需求前景，因爲公司將繼續擴大產能以滿足下游需求。根據最新業績，亞馬遜、微軟和谷歌（CSP3）以及Meta的資本支出在2024上半年同比增長超過50%，並預計在2024/25年增長39%/13%，這證實了人工智能基礎設施投資主題依然存在。考慮到這一有利因素，我們認爲該公司的400G+產品出貨量將繼續增加。我們對旭日光電在2024/25年的營業收入預測維持在240/340億元人民幣（同比增長123%/43%），主要受到人工智能投資動力、產能擴張和2024年下半年1.6萬億產品出貨量的推動。
GPM improved sequentially to 33% in Q2 (up 0.7ppt from Q1) on favourable product mix (higher shipments of 800G/400G products), improving yield and cost optimization. FX rate had a limited impact in 2Q. The GPM improvement should alleviate some market concerns over a further decline in product ASPs. Looking forward, we expect Innolight's GPM to remain at ~33% in FY24E.
毛利率（GPm）在2024第二季度按季度順序提高到33%（比第一季度提高了0.7個百分點），這得益於產品結構的有利變化（800G/400G產品出貨量增加）、良好的良率和成本優化。外匯匯率在第二季度對業績影響有限。毛利率的提高應緩解市場對產品平均售價進一步下降的擔憂。展望未來，我們預計旭日光電的毛利率將保持在約33%的水平。
Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP at RMB150.76. We believe the market demand, both overseas and domestic, for Innolight's high-speed optical products will remain robust in the near term, paving the way for a solid growth trajectory for the company. We expect hyperscalers (CSP3 & Meta) to continue their investments in datacenter infrastructure. Nvidia is set to release its 2QFY25 earnings after market close on Aug 28th. We believe Nvidia's earnings will act as a key market catalyst especially for the AI infrastructure sector that has been under the spotlight over the past few months. Potential risks include: 1) intensified geopolitical tensions, 2) slower-than-expected new product ramp-up progress, 3) a slowdown in cloud capital spending, and 4) supply chain bottleneck.
維持買入評級，目標價不變，爲150.76人民幣。我們相信，旭日光電高速光通信產品在海外和國內市場的市場需求將在短期內保持穩健，爲公司的持續增長提供良好的增長路徑。我們預計雲計算巨頭（CSP3和Meta）將繼續投資數據中心基礎設施。英偉達將在8月28日市場收盤後發佈其2025財年第二季度業績，我們認爲英偉達的業績將成爲市場的關鍵驅動因素，特別是對於在過去幾個月中備受關注的人工智能基礎設施領域。潛在風險包括：1）地緣政治緊張局勢升級；2）新產品推出進度低於預期；3）雲計算資本支出放緩；4）供應鏈瓶頸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。