TUHU CAR(9690.HK):DEFENSIVE PLAY AMID CONSUMPTION DOWNGRADE
TUHU CAR(9690.HK):DEFENSIVE PLAY AMID CONSUMPTION DOWNGRADE
Earnings/Valuation. We expect Tuhu's FY24E revenue to rise 9% YoY with total number of stores of 6,900 at the end of FY24E. We project FY24E adjusted net profit to rise 59% YoY to RMB766mn, with NPM widening to 5.2%. That implies 2H24E adjusted net profit of RMB409mn (+52% YoY and +14% HoH). We forecast FY25E revenue to rise 14% YoY and adjusted net profit to rise 43% YoY to about RMB1.1bn with NPM of 6.5%. We maintain BUY rating with a new target price of HK$23.00, based on 15x adj. FY25E P/E, which could be justified given its high growth potential, in our view. Key risks to our rating and target price include slower network expansion, lower revenue and/or margins than we expect, as well as a sector de-rating.Transfer coverage with a BUY rating. Tuhu Car's 1H24 earnings slightly beat our prior forecast amid a better-than-expected GPM. We expect its margins to be resilient despite average selling price (ASP) declines, given a higher GPM from the exclusive and private-label products. We believe there is still substantial room for growth for Tuhu's number of stores in China amid rising vehicle ages and Chinese consumers' more rational spending on after-sales services, which could support its fast earnings growth in the next few years. We believe Tuhu is a beneficiary and a defensive player from the consumption downgrade.
以買入評級轉讓覆蓋。Tuhu汽車1H24年度利潤略超過我們先前的預測，歸功於超出預期的GPm。我們預計儘管平均售價（ASP）下滑，但其利潤率將保持彈性，得益於專屬和自有品牌產品的更高GPm。我們相信，在中國，隨着車輛壽命的延長和消費者更加理性的售後服務支出，Tuhu在門店數量仍有很大發展空間，這可能在未來幾年支撐其快速盈利增長。我們認爲Tuhu是消費下行的受益者和防守型選手。
1H24 earnings slightly beat. Tuhu's 1H24 revenue grew 9% YoY to about RMB7.1bn with number of stores rising 23% YoY to about 6,300, in line with our prior forecast. Its 1H24 GPM improved 1.7ppts YoY to 25.9%, higher than our forecast by 0.4ppts, mainly due to the better GPM from car wash and detailing businesses and lower costs from self-operated stores. Tuhu's 1H24 adjusted net profit (excluding share-based payments) surged 67% YoY to RMB359mn, higher than our prior forecast by RMB17mn.
1H24年度利潤略超過。Tuhu 1H24年度收入同比增長9%，達到約71億元人民幣，門店數量同比增長23%至約6300家，與我們先前的預測一致。其1H24年度GPm同比提高1.7個百分點，達到25.9%，比我們的預測高出0.4個百分點，主要歸因於洗車和護理業務的較好GPm以及自營門店較低的成本。Tuhu 1H24年度淨利潤（不包括股權支付）同比激增67%，達到3.59億元人民幣，比我們先前的預測高出1,700萬元人民幣。
Margins to benefit from consumption downgrade. We believe the total demand for independent automotive after-sales service suppliers could rise over the next few years, given growing vehicle ages and more rational spending on after-sales services in China. The number of applications for franchise stores rose 22% YoY in 1H24, according to the company, which could support its network expansion in 2H24 and 2025, in our view. We expect Tuhu's rising store number to more than offset declines in average revenue per store amid the company's penetration into lower-tier cities in the next few years. We also project its OPM to improve driven by greater economies of scale and higher contribution from exclusive and private-label products which provide much higher GPMs than branded products. Both factors combined should lead to high earnings visibility, in our view.
利潤率從消費下滑中受益。我們認爲獨立汽車售後服務供應商的總需求在未來幾年有望上升，因爲中國的車輛壽命延長和對售後服務的更理性的消費。根據該公司的數據，Franchise門店的申請數量在1H24年同比增長22%，這可以支持其在2H24年和2025年的網絡擴張，我們認爲。我們預計Tuhu門店數量的增加將在未來幾年抵消門店平均營收的下降，因爲該公司進入低線城市。我們還預計，由於規模經濟效益增加和專屬和自有品牌產品的貢獻提高（其提供比品牌產品更高的GPm），Tuhu的經營利潤率將改善。我們認爲，這兩個因素的共同作用將使其盈利的可見度提高。
Earnings/Valuation. We expect Tuhu's FY24E revenue to rise 9% YoY with total number of stores of 6,900 at the end of FY24E. We project FY24E adjusted net profit to rise 59% YoY to RMB766mn, with NPM widening to 5.2%. That implies 2H24E adjusted net profit of RMB409mn (+52% YoY and +14% HoH). We forecast FY25E revenue to rise 14% YoY and adjusted net profit to rise 43% YoY to about RMB1.1bn with NPM of 6.5%. We maintain BUY rating with a new target price of HK$23.00, based on 15x adj. FY25E P/E, which could be justified given its high growth potential, in our view. Key risks to our rating and target price include slower network expansion, lower revenue and/or margins than we expect, as well as a sector de-rating.
盈利/估值。我們預計Tuhu FY24E年度營收同比增長9%，FY24E年度結束時門店總數爲6,900家。我們預計FY24E年度調整後的淨利潤同比增長59%，達到7.66億元人民幣，淨利潤率上升至5.2%。這意味着FY24E年度下半年調整後的淨利潤爲4.09億元人民幣（同比增長52%，環比增長14%）。我們預測FY25E年度營收同比增長14%，調整後的淨利潤同比增長43%，約達到11億元人民幣，淨利潤率爲6.5%。我們維持買入評級，目標價爲23港元，基於15倍調整後的FY25E市盈率，考慮到其高增長潛力，可以得到合理的估值。我們認爲，我們的評級和目標價的關鍵風險包括網絡擴張放緩、收入和/或利潤率低於預期，以及板塊估值下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。