AIA GROUP LTD.(1299.HK):1H24 VNB BEAT WITH MARGIN RECOVERY; EXPECT TOTAL>US$7BN CASH RETURNS TO SHAREHOLDERS IN FY24
AIA GROUP LTD.(1299.HK):1H24 VNB BEAT WITH MARGIN RECOVERY; EXPECT TOTAL>US$7BN CASH RETURNS TO SHAREHOLDERS IN FY24
Expect rich catalysts from innovative. The long-acting EPO SSS06 for anemia in chronic renal failure may receive approval in 2025E (NDA accepted for review in July 2024). The Phase III studies of TPIAO for CLDT and 608 (IL- 17) for moderate-to-severe PsO both reached the primary endpoints and may submit NDAs in 2024E. Clascoterone (WS204), the world's first marketed topical androgen receptor for acne treatment, is currently recruiting patients for the phase III bridging clinical trial. We expect Clascoterone to complete the clinical trial and submit NDA in 2025E. Phase III studies for 613 (IL-1β) for acute gout arthritis and 611 (IL-4R) for adult AD are underway, with NDAs expected in 2025E and 2026E, respectively.3SBio reported 1H24 revenue of RMB4,389 mn, up 16% YoY and in line with our forecast, accounting for 49% of our full-year estimate. Attributable net profit increased by 11% YoY to RMB1,090mn, reaching 58% of our full-year estimate. Attributable net profit margin declined by 1.1 ppts to 24.8% due to higher R&D expense rate and effective income tax rate. In 1H24, 3SBio accelerated its R&D endeavors, including a significant upfront payment of RMB45mn to Hybio Pharmaceutical for the exclusive license of semaglutide Injection for obesity indication. Additionally, the Company allocated a total of HK$860mn towards dividends and share repurchases. These cross-border transactions caused the heightened effective tax rate in 1H24.
三生製藥報告了2024上半年營業收入爲人民幣43.89億，同比增長16%，與我們的預測一致，佔我們全年預測的49%。歸屬淨利潤同比增長11%，達到人民幣10.9億，達到我們全年預測的58%。歸屬淨利潤率由於研發費用率和有效稅率的上升而下降了1.1個百分點，爲24.8%。上半年，三生製藥加快了其研發工作，包括向翰宇藥業支付4500萬元的巨額預付款，用於肥胖證明的奧塞西石注射液獨家許可。此外，公司分配了總計8.6億港元用於分紅派息和回購股份。這些跨境交易導致2024上半年的有效稅率增加。
TPIAO delivered strong revenue growth. In 1H24, TPIAO's sales grew 22.6% YoY to RMB2,476mn, accounting for 56% of 3SBio's total revenue. TPIAO has solidified its leadership in China's thrombocytopenia treatment market, expanding its market share from 65% in 2023 to 66% in 1H24. 3SBio continued to broaden the indications of TPIAO, with advancements including the NMPA's approval in Apr 2024 for its use in persistent or chronic primary ITP in children and adolescents. The Phase III study for TPIAO in CLDT patients awaiting invasive surgery met its primary endpoints in July 2024, underpinning TPIAO's potential for further indication expansion. In addition to TPIAO, other key products also showed solid performance in 1H24. The sales of rhEPO products (including EPIAO and SEPO)/ Yisaipu/ Cipterbin, increased 11.3%/ 9.5%/ 48.9% YoY to RMB516mn/ RMB329mn/ RMB162mn in 1H24, respectively.
TPIAO實現了強勁的營業收入增長。2024上半年，TPIAO的銷售額同比增長22.6%，達到人民幣24.76億，佔三生製藥總營業收入的56%。TPIAO鞏固了其在中國血小板減少症治療市場的領導地位，將其市場份額從2023年的65%擴大到2024上半年的66%。三生製藥繼續擴大TPIAO的適應症範圍，包括國家藥監局在2024年4月批准其用於兒童及青少年持久性或慢性原發性ITP的治療。2024年7月，TPIAO在等待侵襲性手術的CLD患者中進行的III期研究達到了主要終點，爲TPIAO進一步擴大適應症提供了支持。除了TPIAO，其他關鍵產品在2024上半年也表現出色。rhEPO產品（包括億帕和賽孢普）/伊賽普/西普生的銷售額同比分別增長11.3%/9.5%/48.9%，達到人民幣5.16億/3.29億/1.62億。
Diversified product portfolio fuels Mandi's growth. 3SBio continued to expand its hair growth product matrix. In Jan 2024, Mandi (5% minoxidil) Foam was approved as OTC drug, which is propylene glycol-free and tailored for skin sensitive population. Despite subdued consumer sentiment, Mandi's sales grew 10% YoY to RMB550mn in 1H24. Given the substantial untapped potential in China's hair loss market, we expect sustained growth for Mandi.
多樣化的產品組合推動了曼迪的增長。三生製藥繼續擴大其促發頭髮生長的產品矩陣。2024年1月，曼迪（5%米諾地爾）泡沫劑被批准爲場外交易藥物，不含丙三醇，專爲皮膚敏感人群量身定製。儘管消費者情緒低迷，曼迪的銷售額在2024上半年同比增長10%，達到人民幣5.5億。考慮到中國脫髮市場的巨大未開發潛力，我們預計曼迪將保持持續增長。
Expect rich catalysts from innovative. The long-acting EPO SSS06 for anemia in chronic renal failure may receive approval in 2025E (NDA accepted for review in July 2024). The Phase III studies of TPIAO for CLDT and 608 (IL- 17) for moderate-to-severe PsO both reached the primary endpoints and may submit NDAs in 2024E. Clascoterone (WS204), the world's first marketed topical androgen receptor for acne treatment, is currently recruiting patients for the phase III bridging clinical trial. We expect Clascoterone to complete the clinical trial and submit NDA in 2025E. Phase III studies for 613 (IL-1β) for acute gout arthritis and 611 (IL-4R) for adult AD are underway, with NDAs expected in 2025E and 2026E, respectively.
創新的富有催化作用。長效EPO SSS06用於慢性腎功能衰竭性貧血可能在2025年獲得批准（NDA於2024年7月獲得審核）。TPIAO用於CLDt的III期研究和608（IL-17）用於中重度銀屑病的III期研究均達到主要終點，可能在2024年提交NDA。Clascoterone（WS204）作爲全球首個用於治療痤瘡的外用雄激素受體激動劑目前正在進行III期橋接性臨床試驗招募患者。我們預計Clascoterone將在2025年完成臨床試驗並提交NDA。613（IL-1β）用於急性痛風性關節炎的III期研究和611（IL-4R）用於成年AD的III期研究正在進行中，預計分別在2025年和2026年提交NDA。
Maintain BUY. We maintain our earnings forecasts and expect its revenue to increase at a CAGR of 11.1% from 2023-2026E, and attributable net profit to grow at a CAGR of 13.3% from 2023-2026E. We derive our TP of HK$9.46 based on a 9-year DCF model (WACC: 11.1%, terminal growth rate: 2.0%).
保持買入。我們維持盈利預測，並預計其營業收入將以11.1%的複合年增長率從2023年至2026年增長，淨利潤歸屬股東將以13.3%的複合年增長率增長。我們根據9年DCF模型（WACC：11.1%，終端增長率：2.0%）得出HK$9.46的目標價。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。