POLY SERVICES(6049.HK):1H24 RESULTS IN LINE; EXPANSION SLOWED AMID INTENSIFYING COMPETITION
POLY SERVICES(6049.HK):1H24 RESULTS IN LINE; EXPANSION SLOWED AMID INTENSIFYING COMPETITION
Third-party expansion slowed, public service conversion rate declined. Annualized contract value of new projects expanded in 1H24 fell 17% YoY to RMB 1.1bn due to heightening competition. Managed GFA from 3rd parties increased 19% YoY to 491mn sqm (vs. 28%/32% in 1H23/2023), implying a net increase of 25.9mn sqm, down 56% YoY, dragged by -42%/-62% YoY decline in residential/public services; new contract values for the two segments booked -41%/-27% YoY decline, respectively, indicating declines in the conversion from reserved-GFA, particularly for public services. The rate declined 34ppt from 56% in 1H23 to 18% in 1H24 for third-party projects, where c.85% are public projects based on historical data.Poly Services (6049 HK)
保利服務（6049 HK）
1H24 results in line; expansion slowed amid intensifying competitionThe company' 1H24 revenue/net profit grew 10.2/10.8% YoY, in line with guidance. GPM was down 1ppt to 20.5%, and enhanced cost control reduced the SG&A ratio by 1ppt to 6.3%.The company maintained 2024E guidance of rev. and NP growth ≥ 10%. Intensified competition and reduced owner payment capabilities impacted the company's managed-GFA growth profitability, and cash collection ability. However, we remain positive given 1) it is less affected than industry peers, 2) parentco's strong mkt position securing its basic PM business. Maintain BUY but lower TP by 6% to HK$ 54.03, representing 18x 2024E P/E.
半年報結果符合預期；在競爭加劇的情況下擴張放緩。公司1H24的營業收入/淨利潤同比增長10.2/10.8%，符合預期。毛利率下降1個百分點至20.5%，增強的成本控制將銷售和管理費用率減少1個百分點至6.3%。公司維持2024年的營收和淨利增長預期≥10%。競爭加劇和業主支付能力下降影響了公司的管理面積增長盈利能力和現金收取能力。然而，我們仍持積極態度，因爲 1) 其受到的影響比行業同行要小，2) 母公司強大的市場地位確保了其基本Pm業務。繼續買入，但將目標價下調6%至54.03港元，代表2024年預期市盈率18倍。
Revenue in line, margin under pressure. Rev. grew by 10.2% YoY to RMB 7.9bn, in line with the guidance. Basic PM was +16% YoY driven by a +14.9% YoY increase from Poly's projects and a +17.7% increase from third-party projects, which failed to meet the target of 20% due to heightened competition. VAS to developers declined 2.1% YoY, outperforming the industry. Community VAS decreased 1.8% YoY, affected by weak consumer sentiment. GPM narrowed by 1ppt to 20.5% and is likely to face pressure as 1) PM fee reduction policies in multiple cities may compress margins for residential projects; 2) budget cuts affecting margins of public service projects. NP was +10.8% YoY with margin expanding 0.1ppt to 10.7%, aided by a 1ppt reduction in the SG&A ratio. The company maintained 2024E guidance of rev. /NP growth ≥10%.
營收符合預期，利潤率面臨壓力。營收同比增長10.2%至79億元人民幣，符合預期。基礎Pm同比增長16%，得益於保利項目的14.9%同比增長和第三方項目的17.7%增長，但未達到20%的目標，受到激烈競爭的影響。向開發商提供的增值服務同比下降2.1%，表現優於行業表現。社區增值服務同比下降1.8%，受消費者情緒疲軟影響。毛利率收窄1個百分點至20.5%，預計將面臨壓力，原因爲：1) 多個城市的Pm費用減少政策可能會擠壓住宅項目的利潤率；2) 預算削減影響了公共服務項目的利潤率。淨利潤同比增長10.8%，利潤率擴大0.1個百分點至10.7%，受到銷售和管理費用率減少1個百分點的幫助。公司維持2024年的營收/淨利增長預期≥10%。
Third-party expansion slowed, public service conversion rate declined. Annualized contract value of new projects expanded in 1H24 fell 17% YoY to RMB 1.1bn due to heightening competition. Managed GFA from 3rd parties increased 19% YoY to 491mn sqm (vs. 28%/32% in 1H23/2023), implying a net increase of 25.9mn sqm, down 56% YoY, dragged by -42%/-62% YoY decline in residential/public services; new contract values for the two segments booked -41%/-27% YoY decline, respectively, indicating declines in the conversion from reserved-GFA, particularly for public services. The rate declined 34ppt from 56% in 1H23 to 18% in 1H24 for third-party projects, where c.85% are public projects based on historical data.
第三方擴張放緩，公共服務轉化率下降。1H24的新項目合同價值的年化增長率同比下降17%，至11億元人民幣，受激烈競爭的影響。來自第三方的管理面積同比增長19%，達到4.91億平方米（20123/2023的28%/32%），暗示淨增加25.9萬平方米，同比下降56%，主要受到住宅/公共服務的-42%/-62%同比下滑的拖累；兩個領域的新合同價值同比-41%/-27%，表明從保留管理面積轉化的下降，特別是針對公共服務。第三方項目的轉化率從1H23的56%下降34個百分點至1H24的18%，根據歷史數據，約85%基於公共項目。
Account receivables further deteriorated by +53% to RMB 3.6bn since the end of 2023 given 1) reduced payment capabilities of residential owners; 2) budget constraints of public service project owners. The company expects improvement in 2H24 as 1) residential fee collection peaks at year-end and 2) public service arrears are addressed through government repayment plans.
截至2023年末，應收賬款進一步惡化，增加了53%，達到了36億元人民幣，原因有：1）住宅業主支付能力下降；2）公共服務項目業主預算有限。公司預計2024年下半年將有所改善，原因有：1）住宅費用收取在年底達到高峰；2）公共服務尚未支付的欠款將通過政府還款計劃得到解決。
Valuation: Maintain BUY rating with TP cut down 6% to HK$ 54.03, representing 18x 2024E P/E. Risks: AR impairment, intensified competition.
估值：維持買入評級，目標價格下調6%至54.03港元，對應2024年預期市盈率18倍。風險：應收賬款減值，競爭加劇。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。