公司2024年上半年业绩符合预期，开发业务暂时承压，非开发业务稳中向好，维持增持评级。公司2024 年上半年营业收入468.6 亿元（人民币，下同），归母净利润58.7 亿元，分别同比下滑24.5%、27.2%，其中开发业务受行业调整的影响，收入同比下滑32.3%至337.6 亿元，收入贡献占比创新低为72.1%。因以股代息带来股本增加，在维持盈利预测的情况下，公司2024~2026 年EPS 调整为1.73元、1.76 元、1.83 元，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
Affected by the main business development business settlement and gross margin pressure, the company's performance declined in the first half of 2024; the operation and service business improved steadily, accounting for more than 80% of the profit contribution.
Key points of investment:
The company's performance for the first half of 2024 was in line with expectations. The development business was temporarily under pressure, and the non-development business was steady, moderate and positive, maintaining an increase in holdings rating. The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 46.86 billion yuan (RMB, same below), and net profit to mother was 5.87 billion yuan, down 24.5% and 27.2%, respectively. Among them, the development business was affected by industry adjustments, and revenue fell 32.3% year on year to 33.76 billion yuan, accounting for a record low of 72.1%. Due to the increase in share capital due to interest on shares, while maintaining profit forecasts, the company's EPS for 2024 to 2026 was adjusted to 1.73 yuan, 1.76 yuan, and 1.83 yuan, maintaining an increase in holdings rating.
Gross profit margin is still in the downward channel, and the pace of development of new projects is slowing down to remain cautious. The company's gross margin fell 1.8 pct to 20.6% year on year in the first half of 2024, essentially because the gross margin of the development business fell 6.9 pct to 7.4% year on year. In the future, as housing prices gradually stabilized and the non-development business was upgraded and improved, gross margin is expected to improve. The development business was under pressure in the first half of the year. In terms of sales performance, sales volume and sales area decreased by 48.1% and 37%, respectively. The declines were 34.2 pcts and 19.7 pcts wider than in the full year of 2023. Faced with the pressure of inventory removal, the company drastically reduced the scale of land acquisition. The new land reserve area in the first half of the year was reduced by 77% year on year, and the focus was on choosing to lay out high-quality land in core cities. The average equity acquisition cost rose 53.4% year on year to 14,946 yuan/square meter. Furthermore, by the end of June, the company had sold an unsettled amount of 173.9 billion yuan, which can still support subsequent performance releases.
The share of non-development business profits increased to more than 80%, becoming an important support for the company's profits and promoting further optimization of the business structure. Operating and service business revenue rose 7.6% year on year to 13.1 billion yuan. Specifically: 1) Operating revenue rose 4.4% year on year to 6.61 billion yuan. Among them, in terms of core business malls, the construction area already opened increased by 8.8%, and the occupancy rate increased by 0.6 pct to 96%, thus achieving a year-on-year increase of 6.3% to 5.18 billion yuan, accounting for 78.4% of total leasing revenue, and it is expected that 10 more shopping malls will open for rent in cities such as Suzhou, Hefei, and Tianjin. There is room for revenue growth; 2) Service revenue increased 11.1% year over year to 6.49 billion yuan.
Pay attention to financial stability and reduce interest-bearing liabilities. As of June, the company's interest-bearing debt decreased by 5.2 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, the average financing cost was 4.16%, and the average contract loan period was extended to 9.19 years.
Risk warning: The decline in demand exceeded expectations, and the development of other transformation businesses fell short of expectations.
