投资建议：考虑到公司特别股东大会已通过 KP 剥离事项，KP 剥离后有望减亏，我们上调2024-2026 年归母净利预测为12.6/14.3/16.0亿元（调整前分别为11.6/13.1/14.8 亿人民币），对应PE 分别为10/9/8倍，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
H1's revenue and profit are in line with expectations, maintaining a high dividend ratio. The main brand H1 grows steadily, H2 puts operational quality first, and professional sports brands maintain high growth.
Key points of investment:
Investment proposal: Considering that the KP divestment has been approved by the company's special shareholders' meeting, we are expected to reduce losses after the divestment. We raised the 2024-2026 net profit forecast to 1.26/1.43/1.6 billion yuan (1.16/1.31/1.48 billion yuan, respectively before adjustment), corresponding PE is 10/9/8 times, respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
H1 revenue and profit are in line with expectations and maintain a high dividend ratio. H1's revenue was 7.203 billion yuan, up 10.4% year on year; net profit was 0.752 billion yuan, up 13.0% year on year; gross margin was 46.0%, up 3.1 pct year on year; net margin was 10.4%, up 0.2 pct year on year; A&P fee ratio was 13.3%, up 0.1 pct year on year, mainly due to the increase in marketing activities of new brands (of which main brand marketing expenses decreased year on year, H1 expenses related to the Olympics are expected to decrease). The 2024 full year A&P fee rate is less than 13%.
The interim dividend rate is 50%, which is the same as the previous year. Additionally, the company will pay a special dividend, which is expected to be paid at the end of October or the beginning of November.
Main brand: H1 grows steadily, and H2 puts operational quality first. H1's revenue was 5.79 billion, up 6.6% year on year. H1 turnover increased by high number of units. The number of units in the same store was reduced, mainly affected by customer flow; GPM was 43.9%, up 0.8 pct year on year; OPM was 20.6%, up 0.2 pct year on year. H2 expects the consumer environment to be under pressure, and the main lifestyle products, especially clothing, will be under pressure, but growth is still expected due to the growth of running products and children. We expect the company to put business quality first and maintain healthy discounts and inventory.
Professional sports continue to increase, and store efficiency is the main driver. H1's revenue was 0.59 billion, up 72.2% year over year. 1) Channel subchannel: H1 e-commerce, retail, wholesale +62%/+70%/+136% respectively, accounting for 53%/33%/14% of revenue, respectively. 2) By brand: Millet H1's revenue also increased by more than 85%. For Sokoni, ① channel side: H1 stores have increased by 30%. It is expected that in the future, they will continue to improve store efficiency through channel upgrades (such as opening the first image store in Shenzhen in September, H1 expanding the original store area, etc.), and will not develop and join on a large scale. ② Product side: OG and commuter products are expected to be launched in 2025.
Risk warning: terminal consumption falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, etc.
