投资建议：业 绩略超预期，维持预测公司2024-2026 年收入分别为146.08/161.27/177.55 亿元（ 人民币， 下同）， 增速分别为7%/10%/10%；维持预测公司2024-2026 年经调整净利润分别为7.49/11.94/16.64 亿元，增速分别为56%/59%/39%。参考同行业可比公司估值，考虑公司成长性较强，维持给予公司2024 年高于行业平均的25xPE，维持目标市值204 亿港元。Introduction to this report:
Tourover has significant competitive advantages in terms of scale, supply chain, and store control, and is optimistic about the company's room to increase its long-term market share.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: The performance slightly exceeded expectations. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 was 14.608/16.127/17.755 billion yuan (RMB, same below), respectively, and the growth rate was 7%/10%/10%, respectively; the adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 was 0.749/1.194/1.664 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 56%/59%/39%, respectively. Referring to the valuations of comparable companies in the same industry, considering the company's strong growth rate, maintain the company's target market value of HK$20.4 billion in 2024, which is higher than the industry average.
Performance summary: 2024H1 revenue 7.126 billion yuan/year over year +9.3%; operating profit 0.212 billion yuan/year on year +217.5%, operating profit margin 3.0% /year on year +2.0pct; adjusted net profit 0.358 billion yuan/year on year +67.3%, adjusted net profit margin 5.0% /year over year +1.7 pct/month on month +1.2pct.
Stores continue to expand, and the market share of all categories has increased. ① Store expansion: 2024H1 total number of Tourover stores: 6311 home/YoY +23%/net increase of 402 in the first half of the year; ② Number of trading users: 2024H1 trading users 21.4 million/ +18.8%, monthly active users 11.5 million/ +15.8%, repurchase rate 61.6%; ③ Single store revenue YoY -12.5%: Affected by the increase in customer traffic in the same store, the year-on-year decline in customer unit prices, and a decline in store opening. The user replacement cycle is lengthened. The proportion of profitable stores remained around 90% in June; ④ Business structure: 2024H1 tire and chassis parts revenue +11.0% year-on-year, car maintenance +10.7%, other businesses +4.3%; franchise cooperative business +6.1%, advertising services +21.9%, and other services -15.4%.
Private brands drive gross margin increase, and cost ratio optimization under scale effects. ① Gross profit ratio: supply-side bargaining power continues to improve; 2024H1 exclusive and proprietary automated control products account for 3.4% of the full year of 2023; the company's 2024H1 gross profit margin is 25.9%/+1.7pct month-on-month; ② Expense ratio: The company's management efficiency is steadily improving, the overall labor efficiency and automation rate is continuously optimized along with business scaling, and various operating expenses continue to be diluted. The total operating expenses of 2024H1 account for 23.6% of total revenue, 0.9 pct/month-on-month -0.7 pct, of which: operating and support expenses It accounts for 4.0% /y-0.2 pct/month-on-month -0.6 pct, R&D expenses 4.2% /y-0.4 pct/month-on-month +0.2 pct, sales expenses 12.7% /y-0.2 pct/month-on-month +0.4 pct, general administrative expenses 2.6% /y-0.2 pct/month-on-month.
Risk warning: Store opening falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, and new automotive technology is impacting.
