TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LIMITED(00780.HK):RESILIENT PERFORMANCE
TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LIMITED(00780.HK):RESILIENT PERFORMANCE
Tongcheng Travel reported 2Q24 revenue of Rmb4.2bn (+48% YoY) and adjusted net profit of Rmb657m (+11% YoY), in line with our expectations. The company revised down the full-year revenue outlook but lifted margin outlook. We lower our EPS forecast from Rmb1.3 to Rmb1.12 in 24E, from Rmb1.51 to Rmb1.32 in 25E, and from Rmb1.78 to Rmb1.52 in 26E. We lower target price from HK$23 to HK$20, with 49% upside, we maintain Buy rating.
同程旅行報告2024年第二季度營業收入人民幣42億元（+48%同比增長），調整後的淨利潤爲65700萬元（+11%同比增長），符合我們的預期。公司下調了全年營業收入展望，但提高了利潤率展望。我們將24年度每股收益預測從1.3元下調至1.12元，將25年度從1.51元調降至1.32元，將26年度從1.78元下調至1.52元。我們將目標價從23港幣下調至20港幣，上漲49%，維持買入評級。
Resilient core OTA business. In 2Q24, the company's core OTA revenue increased by 23% YoY, with accommodation reservation revenue up by 13% YoY and transportation ticketing revenue up by 17% YoY, both reaching record highs.
核心OTA業務持續增長。在2024年第二季度，公司的核心OTA營業收入同比增長23%，住宿預訂收入同比增長13%，運輸訂票收入同比增長17%，均達到歷史新高。
Domestic air ticketing volume grew by nearly 20% YoY, and domestic hotel room nights grew by 10% YoY.
國內機票成交量同比增長近20%，國內酒店間夜同比增長10%。
Solid growth of outbound travel business. In 2Q24, the company's average dailyvolume of international air ticketing increased by more than 160% YoY, and international hotel room nights increased by nearly 140% YoY. Outbound travel business contributed c.3% of OTA revenue, and is expected to increase to 10-15% in the next two to three years. The impact of outbound travel business marketing activities on core OTA margin would decrease in 2H24. Outbound travel business is expected to breakeven in 2025, with long-term margin higher than domestic business.
出境旅行業務增長強勁。2024年第二季度，公司的國際機票平均每日成交量同比增長超過160%，國際酒店間夜同比增長近140%。出境旅行業務貢獻了OTA營業收入的約3%，預計在未來兩三年內將增至10-15%。出境旅行業務對核心OTA利潤率的營銷活動影響將在2024年下半年減小。預計出境旅行業務將在2025年實現盈虧平衡，且長期利潤率高於國內業務。
Performance Outlook. We expect 3Q24 revenue to grow 46% YoY, with core OTA revenue up 19% YoY, accommodation reservation and transportation ticketing revenue both up 18% YoY, and other revenue up 22% YoY. We expect 3Q24 hotel ADR to grow QoQ but decline by single digits YoY, better than the market, thanks to a large proportion of the hotels being low-star independent hotels. Tongcheng Travel has a flexible organizational structure with a large proportion of its selling and marketing expenses being variable costs and a strong focus on marketing efficiency.
業績展望。我們預計2024年第三季度營業收入同比增長46%，核心OTA營業收入同比增長19%，住宿預訂和運輸訂票收入均同比增長18%，其他營業收入同比增長22%。我們預計2024年第三季度酒店ADR環比增長但同比下降個位數，優於市場，這得益於酒店中低星級獨立酒店比例較高。同程旅行具有靈活的組織結構，其銷售和營銷費用中有相當比例爲變量成本，並專注於營銷效率。
The company expects the adjusted net profit margin of its core OTA business in 2H24 to be higher than that in 2019.
公司預計2024年下半年核心OTA業務調整後的淨利潤率將高於2019年。
Maintain Buy. We are optimistic about the long-term structural growth of the online travel industry, and Tongcheng Travel is expected to remain resilient on the top-line thanks to its mass market positioning and continuous expansion of customer acquisition channels, and strategically improve the certainty of bottom-line. We believe the company has relative high certainty in domestic consumption and maintain a Buy rating.
維持買入評級。我們對在線旅遊行業的長期結構增長持樂觀態度，預計同程旅行將憑藉其大衆市場定位、持續擴大的客戶獲取渠道以及戰略地改善盈利的確定性，在營收方面維持彈性。我們相信公司在國內消費領域具有相對高確定性，維持買入評級。
Risks. Revenue growth may fall short of expectations. Intensified competition could lead to margin erosion.
風險。營業收入增長可能低於預期。加劇的競爭可能導致利潤率下降。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。