COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES(6098.HK):RELATIVELY GOOD BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AMONG PRIVATE NAMES
COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES(6098.HK):RELATIVELY GOOD BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AMONG PRIVATE NAMES
CGS has made some encouraging developments in incubating profitable community VAS business models. One example is in the near-field retail business, where CGS was able to partner up with some business running members of their managed community to act as distributors, through which they increased number of popular products by 96.3% and increased gross margin of the sub-segment by 4ppts. Another area is charging business for electric scooters, where CGS leveraged its advantage as a property management company and started to self-operate the business, increasing revenue of the sub segment by 85.5%.Country Garden Services' (CGS) 1H24 revenue edged up by 1.5% YoY to RMB21bn, mainly driven by core recurring segments including property management, community VAS and three supplies and property management segments. Revenue of other segments declined, especially non-community VAS which dropped by 63.4% YoY and contributed only 1.7% of total revenue, meaning further optimisation of revenue mix. Gross margin narrowed by 3.7ppts to 21.2%, improving from 2H23's 16.3%. Gross margin for property management, community VAS and non-community VAS narrowed by 3.1ppts, 9.7ppts and 19.7ppts, respectively. Due to some one-off losses, net margin narrowed by 4.5ppts and net profit declined by 38.7% YoY to RMB1.44bn, improving from the RMB2bn loss for 2H23. Operating cash flow declined from RMB2.2bn in 1H23 to RMB270m in 1H24, while management maintains 1x cash flow coverage ratio target for FY24. We cut our 2024-26E core EPS by 9.6-11.4%, respectively, given more conservative revenue and gross margin estimations, and cut our TP by 11.4%. We think 4.3x 2026E P/E is undemanding given further optimised revenue mix and positive operating cash flow. Maintain BUY rating.
碧桂園服務（CGS）上半年營業收入同比增長1.5%至210億元人民幣，主要受到物業管理、社區增值服務和三供及物業管理業務等核心重複性業務的推動。其他業務的營業收入有所下降，尤其是非社區增值服務同比下降63.4%，僅貢獻總營業收入的1.7%，意味着進一步優化營收結構。毛利率從上半年的16.3%提高至21.2%，下降3.7個百分點。物業管理、社區增值服務和非社區增值服務的毛利率分別下降了3.1個百分點、9.7個百分點和19.7個百分點。由於一些一次性虧損，淨利率下降了4.5個百分點，淨利潤同比下降了38.7%至14.4億元人民幣，從上半年23年的虧損20億元人民幣中得到改善。經營活動產生的現金流從上半年23年的22億元人民幣下降至27000萬人民幣，管理層維持了2024財年現金流覆蓋率的目標爲1倍。鑑於更加保守的營收和毛利率預估，我們將2024-26E核心每股收益下調9.6-11.4%，並將我們的目標價下調11.4%。鑑於進一步優化的營收結構和積極的經營現金流，我們認爲2026E市盈率爲4.3倍是合理的。維持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
CGS delivered decent market expansion in 1H24, with GFA under management increasing by 49m sqm, compared to the 71m sqm we estimated for FY24. Residential projects accounted for 48.7% of new projects, increasing from 1H23's 35.6%, demonstrating CGS' refocus on this core segment.
CGS在上半年24年取得了可觀的市場擴展，管理面積爲4900萬平方米，超過我們對2024財年的7100萬平方米的估計。居住項目佔新項目的48.7%，較上半年23年的35.6%有所增加，顯示出CGS對這個核心領域的重新關注。
CGS has made some encouraging developments in incubating profitable community VAS business models. One example is in the near-field retail business, where CGS was able to partner up with some business running members of their managed community to act as distributors, through which they increased number of popular products by 96.3% and increased gross margin of the sub-segment by 4ppts. Another area is charging business for electric scooters, where CGS leveraged its advantage as a property management company and started to self-operate the business, increasing revenue of the sub segment by 85.5%.
CGS在孵化盈利社區增值服務業務模式方面取得了一些令人鼓舞的進展。其中一例是在近場零售業務中，CGS能夠與其管理的社區運營商合作作爲分銷商，通過這種方式將受歡迎的產品數量增加了96.3%，並將子類別的毛利率提高了4個百分點。另一個領域是電動踏板車充電業務，CGS藉助其作爲物業管理公司的優勢開始自營業務，使子類別的收入增長了85.5%。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Economic challenge may continue to put pressure on cash collection ratio
經濟挑戰可能會繼續對現金回收率施加壓力
Valuation
估值
Our TP is derived with 6x 2025E P/E. The stock currently trades at 4.3x 2025E P/E, which we think is undemanding, given CGS' relatively stronger performance in business development, further optimised revenue mix and positive operating cash flow.
我們的目標價基於2025E市盈率的6倍。目前股票的2025E市盈率爲4.3倍，我們認爲這是合理的，考慮到中國銀河在業務發展方面相對較強的業績表現、進一步優化的收入結構和正面的經營現金流。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。