In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term Webster Financial Corporation (NYSE:WBS) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 11% in three years, versus a market return of about 19%.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Webster Financial actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 8.5% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It is a little bizarre to see the share price down, despite a strong improvement to earnings per share. So we'll have to take a look at other metrics to try to understand the price action.

Revenue is actually up 28% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Webster Financial further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

Webster Financial is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Webster Financial stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Webster Financial the TSR over the last 3 years was -0.9%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Webster Financial provided a TSR of 12% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 5% over half a decade This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Webster Financial that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.