XIAOMI(1810.HK):2Q24 BEAT ON EV GPM AND RESILIENT CORE EARNINGS; REITERATE BUY
XIAOMI(1810.HK):2Q24 BEAT ON EV GPM AND RESILIENT CORE EARNINGS; REITERATE BUY
Our FY24-26E EPS are 26-33% above consensus; Maintain BUY. We raise FY24-26E EPS by 6-8% to factor in strong 2Q24 results, and lift SOTP- based TP to HK$ 24.4, implying 23.9x FY24E P/E. Reiterate BUY. Catalysts include SU7 monthly shipments and smartphone market share gains.Xiaomi delivered strong 2Q24 revenue/adj.net profit growth of 32%/20% YoY. Adj. net profit is 21%/27% ahead of our/consensus estimates, mainly driven by stronger EV/internet GPM and improving efficiency. Xiaomi reported its first EV business financials with a quarterly GPM at 15.7%, well above market expectation of 5-10%, and mgmt. guided QoQ GPM expansion into 3Q/4Q24E. Looking ahead, we are positive on Xiaomi smartphones' global market share gains, new retail strategy execution, AIoT business growth momentum and EV shipment delivery to drive earnings growth into FY24E-25E. We raise FY24-26E EPS by 6-8% to factor in strong 2Q results and better EV profitability, and lift SOTP-based TP to HK$24.4, implying 23.9x FY24E P/E. Upcoming catalysts include SU7 monthly shipments and smartphone market share gains.
小米2Q24的營業收入和調整後的淨利潤增長強勁，同比增長32%和20%。調整後的淨利潤超出了我們/共識的預期21%和27%，主要受益於更強的電動汽車/互聯網GPm和提高的效率。小米首次公佈了電動汽車業務財務數據，季度GPm達到15.7%，遠高於市場預期的5-10%，管理層預計GPm將在3Q/4Q24E繼續擴大。展望未來，我們看好小米智能手機的全球市場份額增長，新零售策略的執行，AIot業務的增長勢頭以及電動汽車的交付，將推動收益在FY24E-25E繼續增長。我們將FY24-26E每股收益上調6-8%，以考慮到強勁的2Q業績和更好的電動汽車利潤能力，並將基於SOTP的目標價格上調至24.4港元，對應FY24E市盈率23.9倍。接下來的催化劑包括SU7月度出貨量和智能手機市場份額的增長。
2Q24 earnings beat on strong IoT/internet/EV margins. Xiaomi's 2Q24 global smartphone shipments increased 28.1% YoY and ASP dropped 0.8% YoY due to an increasing mix of lower-ASP overseas smartphone shipments. By segment, smartphone/AIoT/internet revenue grew 27.1%/20.3%/11.0% YoY, boosted by strong SP/Pad/wearables/large home appliance shipments and a growing global user base. Smartphone GPM came in at 12.1% (vs. 1Q24 14.8%) due to rising BOM costs, while internet segment GPM reached 78.3% (vs. 1Q24 74.2%) thanks to a higher mix of advertising business and overseas internet income. Xiaomi reported its first EV business financials with a quarterly GPM 15.7%, well above market expectation of 5-10%.
2Q24業績超出預期，物聯網/互聯網/電動汽車毛利率強勁。小米2Q24全球智能手機出貨量同比增長28.1%，ASP同比下降0.8%，主要是由於海外低價智能手機出貨量的增加。按部門劃分，智能手機/AIoT/互聯網收入同比增長27.1%/20.3%/11.0%，得益於強勁的智能手機/Pad/可穿戴設備/大型家電出貨量和不斷增長的全球用戶群。智能手機GPm率爲12.1%（1Q24爲14.8%），主要由於材料成本上漲，而互聯網業務GPm率爲78.3%（1Q24爲74.2%），得益於廣告業務和境外互聯網收入的增加。小米首次公佈了電動汽車業務的財務數據，季度GPm率爲15.7%，遠高於市場預期的5-10%。
2H24 outlook: upbeat QoQ EV GPM expansion; new retail strategy to accelerate. Xiaomi maintained 120k EV annual delivery guidance with EV GPM to improve QoQ into 3Q/4Q24E. Xiaomi's new retail strategy executed beyond initial expectations with annual new store opening target raised from 3,000 to 4,000 stores. Its overseas retail channel expansion plan is also set to boost SP/AIoT sales with expanded SKUs. Overall, we expect Xiaomi's revenue/adj. net profit to grow 26%/21% YoY in FY24E.
2H24展望：期望電動汽車GPm繼續擴大；新零售策略加快推進。小米維持12萬輛電動汽車年交付目標，並預計電動汽車GPm將在3Q/4Q24E繼續改善。小米的新零售策略超出了最初的預期，年度新店開設目標從3,000家提高到4,000家。其海外零售渠道擴張計劃也將通過擴大SKU來推動智能手機/AIot銷售增長。總體上，我們預計小米的營業收入和調整後的淨利潤將在FY24E同比增長26%和21%。
Our FY24-26E EPS are 26-33% above consensus; Maintain BUY. We raise FY24-26E EPS by 6-8% to factor in strong 2Q24 results, and lift SOTP- based TP to HK$ 24.4, implying 23.9x FY24E P/E. Reiterate BUY. Catalysts include SU7 monthly shipments and smartphone market share gains.
我們預計FY24-26年度的每股收益比市場共識高出26-33％；維持買入評級。我們將FY24-26年度的每股收益上調6-8％，以反映出強勁的2Q24業績，並將基於SOTP的目標價提高至24.4港元，對應FY24E市盈率23.9倍。重申買入評級。催化劑包括SU7月度發貨量增加和智能手機市場份額增加。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
