The situation remains extremely deadlocked.
According to the latest disclosure, Harris's main campaign fundraising group raised four times as much money as Trump in July. This reflects the enthusiastic support of donors for Harris before the November election.
Since Vice President Harris took over Biden's campaign, Trump's chances of winning have continued to decline, and at the same time, stocks betting on Trump's election victory, such as Trump Media and Technology Company (DJT.US), have plummeted.
However, on Wednesday, local time, DJT's stock price mysteriously surged by 13%, which may indicate a subtle reversal of the US election situation.
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Harris is currently in an advantageous position.
According to federal disclosure filings submitted on Tuesday, Democratic candidate Harris' campaign team raised $204 million last month, while the primary fundraising group for Republican candidate and former President Trump reported a figure of $48 million, nearly four times less than the former.
Although Harris' fundraising in July includes nearly $100 million in campaign funds after Biden announced his withdrawal, Harris herself also has strong fundraising capabilities: within 24 hours of her candidacy, she raised a record-breaking $81 million, and in the first week, she raised $200 million.
In just one month since becoming the Democratic presidential candidate, Harris has raised approximately $500 million in campaign funds, an unprecedented amount.
The importance of fundraising for the election is self-evident—the money raised can be used for campaign advertising and voter mobilization, which is crucial for influencing and winning over those undecided voters.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that the former US President Obama, who had previously been silent, expressed his support for Harris at the recent Democratic National Convention and fiercely criticized Trump.
According to Goldman Sachs' latest forecast, Harris is expected to win the November election. The bank stated that, at the national level, Harris is leading Trump by approximately 1.5 percentage points, and is leading in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.
Why did the stocks related to the concept of Donald Trump suddenly soar?
Moving over to the Trump camp, since Vice President Harris took over from Biden to run for the election, Trump's chances of winning have significantly decreased.
According to PredictIt's data, Trump's chances of winning the election have dropped from 69% last month to 47%. Furthermore, multiple polls show that Harris's approval rating has gradually surpassed Trump's.
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Meanwhile, DJT's stock price, which is highly tied to the probability of Trump winning, has fallen during this period from a high closing price of $40.58 last month to $21.42 this Tuesday, with a cumulative decline of over 30%.
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However, DJT's stock price rebounded by 13% overnight, with the trading volume increasing by 245% compared to the previous trading day. In response to this, some investors speculate that this may be related to minor Kennedy's willingness to drop out of the race.
On Tuesday local time, Kenney's running mate Shanahan, an independent presidential candidate in the United States, said that young Kenney may withdraw from the race and instead support Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
We are considering two options, one is to stay and form a new party, but this may bring the risk of Harris and Waltz winning the election, as we have gained votes from Trump... The other option is to leave now and join forces with Trump.
It is worth noting that according to the statistics of the American polling institution FiveThirtyEight as of August 20th, Harris' polling support rate is 47%, Trump is 43.7%, and young Kenney's public opinion support rate has been maintained at around 5%.
This means that with the help of young Kenney, Trump's support rate is expected to surpass Harris.