公司锂电池电解液2024H1 销量同比大幅增长，但产品价格持续下行。截至2024年8 月19 日，三元动力用和磷酸铁锂用电解液均价已分别跌至24500/20000 元/吨，2024H1 公司锂电池电解液实现营收22.93 亿元，同比+4.44%，毛利率为13.65%，同比-2.08pct，销售额仅小幅增长，盈利有所下滑。2024H1 由于新能源行业增速放缓，锂电池关键材料竞争激烈，产品价格持续下降，国际贸易摩擦加剧，叠加公司投产项目处于产能爬坡期，运营成本有所增加影响公司净利润。Incidents:
The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 3.582 billion yuan, +4.35% year-on-year; net profit to mother of 0.416 billion yuan, -19.54% year-on-year. The second quarter achieved revenue of 2.067 billion yuan, +15.75% YoY, +36.41% month-on-month; net profit to mother 0.251 billion yuan, -7.54% YoY, +51.97%.
Lower prices combined with increased operating costs affect net profit
The company's lithium battery electrolyte 2024H1 sales increased sharply year on year, but product prices continued to decline. As of August 19, 2024, the average price of electrolytes for ternary power and lithium iron phosphate had dropped to 24,500/20,000 yuan/ton respectively. 2024H1's lithium battery electrolyte achieved revenue of 2.293 billion yuan, +4.44% year over year, gross margin of 13.65%, -2.08pct year on year. Sales increased only slightly, and profit declined. 2024H1 Due to the slowdown in the growth rate of the new energy industry, competition for key materials for lithium batteries is fierce, product prices continue to drop, international trade frictions are intensifying, and production capacity is climbing. Increased operating costs affect the company's net profit.
The organic fluorine business is expected to welcome a double increase in volume and profit
2024H1's organic fluorine revenue was 0.712 billion yuan, -4.72% year over year, and gross margin was 62.22%, -10.17pct year over year. It is expected that changes in sales caliber of some fluorinated chemicals and materials such as fluorinated coolants (classified as semiconductor chemicals business statistics) will affect revenue. Demand for terminals in the fluorine chemical industry was basically stable in the first half of 2024. The first phase of the company's Heidford project was gradually put into operation, and the company's leading position in the field of organic fluorine technology was stable. We expect the organic fluorine business to continue growing in 2024H2.
Steady promotion of overseas layout is expected to improve the company's profitability
In 2023, the company's Polish plant was put into operation for the 0.04 million tons/year electrolyte project. On August 19, 2024, the company announced that it plans to invest no more than 0.2 billion yuan to build an additional 0.05 million tons/year lithium battery electrolyte during the planned period to meet future local market demand. The expansion of overseas market layout is expected to continue to increase the company's global market share and profitability.
Profit forecasts and investment advice
Due to the sharp drop in product prices, we expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 8.196/9.733/13.38 billion yuan, respectively, +9.5%/+9.5%/+37.5%; net profit to mother will be 1.096/1.644/2.227 billion yuan, respectively, +8.4%/49.9%/35.5% year-on-year, with a three-year CAGR of 30.1%, EPS of 1.45/2.18/2.95, and PE of 21/ 14/10 times, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry competition increases risk; demand for electrolytes falls short of expectations; prices of raw materials fluctuate greatly.
