投资建议：维持“优于大市”评级。公司收入端受到消费环境疲软影响增速预计在10-15%，相较23 年底指引下调；公司广告投放有纪律，预计今年利润率相对稳定。我们预测公司2024-2026 年收入为574/638/708 亿元，较上次分别下调7%/11%/14%，主要原因是消费疲软、部分器械品类受监管影响供给下滑影响；我们预测公司2024-2026 年经调净利为44/48/50 亿元，较上次分别调整+6%/-3/-13%，短期公司提升供应链效率、履约费率高基数影响消除利润提升，长期看美国降息可能影响公司海外存款利息收益。目前公司对应24 年14xPE，24-26 年经调净利CAGR 为6%，我们维持目标价31-33 港币，相对当前股价上涨空间为45%-54%，维持“优于大市”评级。Revenue side: 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 28.3 billion yuan, +5% year-on-year. Looking at the breakdown, 1) Product revenue in the first half of the year was 23.9 billion yuan, +3%, mainly affected by the high sales base of Q1 epidemic protection materials; 2) Service revenue increased 12% to 4.4 billion yuan from 3.9 billion yuan in the same period last year, mainly driven by GMV growth. The company continued to reduce fixed costs for merchants to drive GMV growth, and the overall takerate did not change much.
Profit side: The company's non-IFRS net interest rate rose from 9.0% to 9.3% in the same period last year, mainly benefiting from the increase in the company's other earnings. The company's adjusted operating margin fell from 6.4% to 5.6%, mainly due to increases in contract performance and sales rates, which were partially offset by an increase in gross profit. 1) Fulfillment expenses increased from 2.6 billion in the same period last year to 2.9 billion, and the use of delivery services increased, and the fulfillment rate increased from 9.5% to 10.4%. The rate increase was related to the platform lowering the free shipping service threshold in August last year; 2) Sales expenses increased from 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion in the same period last year, and the rate increased from 4.4% to 5.0%; 3) R&D costs/management rates changed from 2.3%/3.2% to 2.3%/2.4%, respectively, R&D expenses The rate has remained stable, and the management fee rate has declined a lot, mainly due to the reduction in share payment expenses.
Operating data: The company's GMV growth was mainly driven by an increase in the number of active buyers and purchase frequency. As of 2024H1, the number of active users of JD Health was 0.181 billion, an increase of 7% over the previous year. We estimate the penetration rate of main site users to be around 30%, and there is still plenty of room for growth in the future; due to the decline in macroeconomic consumption, the average unit price declined year on year, offset by a continuous increase in user shopping frequency.
Investment advice: Maintain an “better than the market” rating. The company's revenue side is affected by the weak consumer environment, and the growth rate is expected to be 10-15%, down from the end of '23; the company's advertising is disciplined, and profit margins are expected to be relatively stable this year. We forecast the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 57.4/63.8/70.8 billion yuan, down 7%/11%/14% from the previous time, mainly due to weak consumption and the decline in supply in some equipment categories; we predict that the company's adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 will be 4.4/4.8/5 billion yuan, adjusted +6% /-3/ -13% respectively from the previous time. Short-term companies will improve supply chain efficiency, and the impact of a high performance rate base will eliminate profit increases in the long run. Interest income from the company's overseas deposits. Currently, the company corresponds to 14xPE in 24, and the adjusted net profit CAGR for 24-26 is 6%. We maintain a target price of HK$31-33, compared to the current share price of 45%-54%, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: policy risk, macroeconomic systemic risk, etc.
