JD HEALTH(6618.HK):MIXED 1H24;COMMITTED STRATEGIES AMID POST-COVID ERA
JD HEALTH(6618.HK):MIXED 1H24;COMMITTED STRATEGIES AMID POST-COVID ERA
JDH reported a mixed set of 1H24 results. 5% YoY total revenue missed consensus by 3% while reaching historical record high at 9.3%. Non- IFRS NPM beat consensus by 2.1ppts. We expect Co. to continue emphasising on share gain of key product categories, prioritising profitability over revenue and investing in multiple key areas in ROI- oriented manner amid macro challenges in 2H24. Maintain BUY on Co.'s edges and committed executions but cut our DCF TP to HK$30.0 mainly reflecting lower topline forecasts on macro and the lack of nationwide industry catalysts.
JDH報告了一組1H24的業績。總收入同比增長5%，達到歷史記錄的最高點，爲9.3%，但低於3%的共識。非IFRS NPm則超出共識2.1個百分點。我們預計公司將繼續強調關鍵產品類別的份額增長，將盈利能力放在收入之上，並以面向投資回報率的方式在許多關鍵領域進行投資，面對2H24的宏觀挑戰。維持對公司邊緣和承諾的買入，但我們將我們的DCF TP降至30.0港幣，主要反映了宏觀環境下銷售額預測的下降以及缺乏全國性行業催化劑。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
L-T vision holds. We see Co. dedicates to i) focus on share gain of key categories leveraging their supply chain, procurement, traffic and user edges; ii) prioritise high quality bottom line growth over topline amid macro challenges; and iii) continue strengthening ROI-oriented investments in multiple fields such as brand, users, merchants, products, services, omni-channel, technology especially acceleration of healthcare LLM, etc. in 2H24. We see improved user base and mindshare with gradual favourable policies but we do not assume large revenue incremental in the near to medium-term. Thus, we lower our 2024-2026E total revenue estimations by 7-15% by cutting our ARPU estimations on key product sales while maintaining our AAC forecasts largely unchanged. Our increased 2024-2026E bottom line forecasts despite lower finance income estimates mainly reflect our uplifted GPM estimations on structural revenue mix benefits and enhanced supply chain and procurement management with unchanged opex assumptions on committed investments.
長期願景保持不變。我們認爲公司致力於：i）利用其供應鏈、採購、流量和用戶優勢專注於關鍵類別份額的增長；ii）在宏觀挑戰下優先考慮高質量底線增長而非銷售收入；以及iii）在2H24繼續加強面向投資回報率的投資，涉及品牌、用戶、商家、產品、服務、全渠道、科技，尤其是加速醫療LLm等多個領域。我們看到用戶基礎和市場份額得到改善，隨着漸進性有利政策的推行，但我們不認爲在短期和中期內會出現大量的增量收入。因此，我們通過降低關鍵產品銷售的ARPU預估來降低我們對2024-2026年的總營收預估，降幅在7-15%之間，但AAC預估基本不變。儘管我們調低了金融收入的預估，我們對2024-2026年的底線預估有所提高，主要是因爲在結構性營收組合帶來的盈利能力提升和供應鏈採購管理的優化方面提高了我們的GPm預估，在承諾的投資支出方面，我們的opex預估沒有變化。
1H24 profit beat on improved GPM and strong finance income. Total
1H24利潤超出預期，GPm改善和強勁的金融收入是主要原因。總營收同比增長5%，達到人民幣283億元，低於3%的共識。進入後疫情時代，產品銷售僅同比增長3%，但活躍用戶和購買頻率增加，服務營收同比增長12%，主要由更多廣告商的廣告費貢獻。AAC進一步增加到1200萬，截至2024年6月，第三方商家數量同比翻倍，達到8萬。GPm表現超過預期，達到23.6%，主要得益於在各個類別內提高了供應鏈採購管理，儘管低GPm藥品的營收貢獻增加。儘管在友好的免費送貨政策下履行支出佔總收入的比例增加了10.4%（與1H23的9.5%和2H23的10.3%相比），但由於金融收入強勁，經調整的NPm達到歷史記錄的最高水平，爲9.3%。
revenue grew 5% YoY to RMB28.3bn, 3% missed consensus. Product revenue only delivered 3% YoY entering post-covid era but with increasing active users and purchase frequency, while service revenue log 12% YoY mainly contributed by ad fees from more advertisers. 12M AAC further increased to 181m and the number of 3P merchants doubled YoY to reach 80K as of Jun 2024. Outperformed GPM was 23.6%, mainly benefitted by improved supply chain and procurement management within each categories despite increased revenue contribution of lower GPM pharmaceutical products. Despite increased 10.4% fulfillment expenses as % of revenue (vs. 9.5% in 1H23 and 10.3% in 2H23) on user friendly free shipping policies, adj. NPM reach historical record high of 9.3% due to strong finance income.
營收同比增長5%，達到人民幣28.3億，低於3%的共識。產品收入只同比增長3%，進入後疫情時代，但隨着活躍用戶和購買頻率的增加，服務收入同比增長12%，主要來自更多廣告商的廣告費。1200萬AAC進一步增加至18100萬，截至2024年6月，第三方商家數量同比翻倍，達到8萬。超過預期的GPm爲23.6%，主要得益於在各個類別內提高了供應鏈採購管理，儘管低GPm藥品的營收貢獻增加。儘管在友好的免費送貨政策下履行支出佔總收入的比例增加了10.4%（與1H23的9.5%和2H23的10.3%相比），但經調整後的NPm達到歷史最高水平，爲9.3%。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Downside risks: i) regulations; ii) Covid-normalisation; iii) destructive investments; iv) less support from JD Group; and v) fierce competition.
下行風險：i）監管政策；ii）疫情正常化；iii）破壞性投資；iv）來自京東集團的支持減少；v）激烈的競爭。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。