On August 14, JPMorgan released a research report maintaining an "overweight" rating on Futu Holdings and slightly lowering the target price from $91 to $90. JPMorgan Chase pointed out the following highlights:
JPM expects teens growth year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit for Futu in the second quarter. JPM believes now is a good opportunity to add on the back of the following.
1) Futu’s fundamentals remain strong on the back of decent AUM growth and new product launches.
2) The steeper and faster Federal Reserve cuts, driven by disinflation, are positive for equity markets. JPM also expects key stocks in the KWEB index to report decent 2Q numbers, which is seen as positive for Futu.
3) Futu is currently trading at a 13x P/E and 18% ROE on 2024 estimates, representing a significant discount compared to its comparable peers that trade at an average of 20x P/E and approximately 11% ROE. With stable overseas expansion, client growth and new product launches, JPM believes risk reward is attractive at current levels, and reiterates their OW rating.
JPM's Dec-24 price target of US$90 is derived from a PEG valuation methodology, based on a 21% 2024E-26E EPS CAGR and 0.85 PEG, in line with listed global online broker peers.
Downside risks include:
1) weakness in China tech stocks, leading to lackluster trading volume growth;
2) regulatory risk;
3) lower-than-expected growth in the number of paying clients.
Upside risks include:
1) higher-than-expected growth in paying client numbers;
2) stronger-than-expected trading volume growth;
3) better-than-expected operating efficiency improvement.
8月14日，摩根大通（以下简称小摩）发布研究报告，维持富途控股 "超配 "评级，同时将目标价从此前的91美元小幅下调至90美元。小摩指出了以下亮点：
小摩预计富途在第二季度的营收和净利润将实现双位数增长。小摩认为现在是一个好的加仓机会，原因如下：
1）富途的基本面保持强劲，得益于良好的客户资产规模增长和新产品推出。
2）由于通胀下降，美联储降息步伐更为陡峭和迅速，这对股票市场是积极的。小摩还预计KWEB指数中的主要公司将报告出色的第二季度业绩，这对富途来说是积极的。
3）富途目前的市盈率为13倍，2024年预测ROE为18％，相比之下，其可比同行平均市盈率为20倍，ROE约为11％。富途估值远低于可比同行。在稳定的海外扩张、客户增长和新产品推出的背景下，小摩认为当前水平的风险回报比具有吸引力，并重申超配评级。
小摩对富途的2024年12月目标价为90美元，该目标价是基于PEG估值方法得出的，基于2024年至2026年的每股盈利年均复合增长率为21％和0.85的PEG，与全球上市在线券商同行保持一致。
下行风险包括：
1）中国科技股疲软，导致交易量增长乏力；
2）监管风险；
3）付费客户数量增长低于预期。
上行风险包括：
1）付费客户数量增长高于预期；
2）交易量增长强劲；
3）运营效率改善好于预期。
