According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics app, in the period from January to July 2024, the sales volume of natural gas heavy trucks has achieved a year-on-year growth, with a monthly average growth rate of 99%, achieving a year-to-date 'seven-in-a-row' increase. With previous growth included, the momentum of consecutive increases has reached '20-in-a-row.' In August, the LNG wholesale price increased again compared to July. As of August 14, the average gas price had exceeded 4,900 yuan/ton, compared to the price of just over 4,000 yuan in March, April, and May last year and less than 4,000 yuan/ton in the same period last year, the economic advantage of natural gas heavy trucks has been greatly reduced. On the other hand, the final demand for heavy trucks has continued to decline (four consecutive months of month-on-month decline), and the truck replacement subsidy policy announced on July 31 does not include gas vehicles. Moreover, in the second half of last year, the sales volume of natural gas heavy trucks had already reached a considerable height, with average monthly sales of over 0.02 million vehicles from August to October. Therefore, the mystery of whether the natural gas heavy truck market can continue to grow in August this year will be very big.

0.0179 million vehicles were actually sold in July, up 69% year-on-year, and the market in August is not optimistic.

According to terminal sales data (compulsory insurance caliber, excluding exports and military products) obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, domestic natural gas heavy truck actual sales were 0.0179 million vehicles in July 2024, a 10% increase from June this year, and 69% year-on-year growth, with a year-on-year growth rate 40 percentage points higher than last month (+29%). So far, the growth of natural gas heavy trucks since December 2022 has successfully expanded to '20-in-a-row.' It is worth mentioning that although the sales volume of natural gas heavy trucks in July did not return to the level of 0.02 million vehicles, the sales volume of 0.0179 million vehicles is still relatively high, and as of July 2024, there have only been six months with natural gas heavy truck sales above 0.0179 million vehicles (August to October 2023, March and April 2020, and July 2019).

Looking at the monthly sales trend of domestic natural gas heavy trucks in recent years, the sales volume from January to May is higher than the sales volume in the same period of any previous year, and the extreme value of sales volume in June appeared in 2019 (mainly due to the implementation of the national six emission regulations for gas vehicles on July 1 of that year), and the sales volume in July is also significantly higher than that in any previous year. In addition, according to observations of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, the domestic heavy truck market cooled significantly at the end of last year, and terminal demand was not ideal at the beginning of 2024 (domestic heavy truck actual sales in January-July decreased year-on-year for three months, a 4% year-on-year decline), in the context of continued low demand in the freight market and limited overall demand, natural gas heavy trucks can still maintain high growth rates for multiple months in a row (an average year-on-year growth rate of 99% from January to July this year), demonstrating that the current hot market for natural gas heavy trucks is not just hype. However, in the last two months, sales volume and year-on-year growth rate have significantly narrowed compared to March-May. Therefore, it can be inferred that the current hot market for natural gas heavy trucks has reached its peak.

Looking at gas prices again, at the end of 2023, the average LNG price was about 6,000 yuan/ton, with a maximum of over 6,200 yuan/ton. The economic advantage of gas heavy trucks had already decreased significantly by the end of 2023 (with an average gas price of less than 4,000 yuan/ton in August 2023). In 2024, natural gas prices dropped from an average of about 5,300 yuan/ton in January to just over 4,000 yuan/ton in April, and then rose monthly. The average gas price in July reached 4,600 yuan/ton, and the gas price had already exceeded 4,800 yuan/ton in early August (although still friendly compared to the end of last year, it was already higher than last year). In August, the LNG price is still rising. As of August 14, the average gas price has exceeded 4,900 yuan/ton. In such a situation, the role of gas prices in assisting the natural gas heavy truck market will become weaker and weaker.

Looking at terminal sales by region, from January to July 2024, natural gas heavy trucks were registered in all 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China, and regional distribution is still extremely unbalanced. Resource-based logistics transportation provinces such as Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan received the majority of sales in the natural gas heavy truck terminal market. In the January-July period this year, the top two regional sales markets were Hebei and Shanxi, accounting for 16.7% and 16.1% respectively. They registered 0.0212 million and 20,400 natural gas heavy trucks, respectively. Shandong, Henan, Ningxia, and Sichuan ranked third to sixth in the number of registrations, with 0.0111 million, 0.0109 million, 8,933, and 7,582 natural gas heavy trucks registered in the January-July period, respectively, accounting for 8.8%, 8.6%, 7.1%, and 6%. Xinjiang, Liaoning, Shaanxi, and Jiangsu, respectively, ranked seventh to tenth in terms of registered number of heavy trucks. The number of natural gas heavy trucks registered in January-July exceeded 4,000 vehicles, with proportions of more than 3%.

Not all provinces have seen an increase in natural gas heavy truck registrations from January to July this year compared to the same period last year. Shanxi and Xinjiang have seen a decline in natural gas heavy truck registrations from January to July this year, with Xinjiang showing a significant decline of 28%. In the first seven months of 2024, the natural gas heavy truck market increased by about 0.0628 million vehicles, mainly distributed in Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, Liaoning and other provinces. Hebei alone contributed over 10,000 vehicles in the increase while Shandong and Henan had close to 0.01 million and over 6,500 vehicles respectively in their increases. From the increase rate, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong, Gansu, and Chongqing have all outpaced the natural gas heavy truck market growth rate in terms of their registration increases from January to July this year. Among them, the provinces of Shandong, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong, and Chongqing had significantly increased registrations by 743%, 364%, 595%, 1,095%, 1,017%, and 749%, respectively.

Over 2,000 registrations have been recorded for Jiefang, Sinotruk, Dongfeng, Foton (Auman), and Shaanxi Auto in July. Among them, Jiefang and Sinotruk have sold over 5,000 and 4,000 heavy trucks respectively, reaching 5,316 and 4,207 units. Jiefang has continued to lead the natural gas heavy truck market.

In July 2024, there were 0.0179 million actual sales of natural gas heavy trucks in the domestic market, a year-on-year increase of 69%, which sold about 7,300 more vehicles than in July 2023, about 1.7 times the sales volume of the same period last year.

In January and February 2024, only two and four companies respectively sold more than 1,000 natural gas heavy trucks. However, from the past three to seven months (during which the natural gas heavy truck market sold more than 0.016 million vehicles), this number has increased to five. In July, Jiefang, Sinotruk, Dongfeng, Foton (Auman) and Shaanxi Auto all sold over 2,000 heavy trucks. Jiefang and Sinotruk sold more than 5,000 and 4,000 heavy trucks respectively, reaching 5,316 and 4,207 units, securing Jiefang's continued top spot in the natural gas heavy truck market.

The table above shows that in July 2024, the natural gas heavy truck market increased by 69% year-on-year, while the top ten members in the sales volume saw nine increases and one decline. If the range is expanded to the top 12, there are still two companies with a decline. In July, Foton (Auman), Shandong Heavy Industry, Dongfeng, CNHTC and SAIC Hongyan saw an increase in natural gas heavy truck sales of 171%, 141%, 82%, 313% and 210% respectively, achieving gains while outperforming the natural gas heavy truck market. Beiqi Foton began selling natural gas heavy trucks only after July of last year, so they experienced a net gain. Meanwhile, companies experiencing declines have seen a decrease of 65% in their year-on-year sales volume in July.

In terms of market share, five companies had a share of more than 10% in the natural gas heavy truck market in July, with Jiefang and Sinotruk dominating with a share of over 20%, reaching 29.75% and 23.54% respectively. The two companies together captured nearly 53.29% of the market share in July. In the first seven months of this year, the combined market share of Jiefang and Sinotruk exceeded 50%, reaching as high as 61.19% in February. Dongfeng, Shaanxi Auto, and Foton all had market shares of over 10% in July. Among these companies, Dongfeng sold over 500 more vehicles than Shaanxi Auto; of the top 10 leaders in sales volume in July, five had a market share of 94.49%. Beiqi Foton (Beijing Heavy Duty Truck), Dayun Heavy Truck, CNHTC, and SAIC Hongyan ranked 6th to 9th respectively, selling 305, 272, 186, and 155 vehicles in the same period, with market shares of 1.71%, 1.52%, 1.04%, and 0.87%. Sales volumes of other companies were all less than 100 heavy trucks each, and their market shares were less than 1%.

In July, Dongfeng, Foton, and Shaanxi Auto all sold more than 2,000 heavy trucks, reaching 2,937, 2,271, and 2,153 units, respectively, accounting for 16.44%, 12.71%, and 12.05% of the market share, respectively. They were the other three companies with a market share of over 10% in July. The top five companies in natural gas heavy truck sales together held 94.49% of the market share in July. Beiqi Foton sold 305 vehicles in July, ranking sixth with a market share of 1.71%. Sales volume of 1,473 vehicles ranked Beijing Heavy Truck as 7th with a market share of 1.16%. Other companies sold less than 100 vehicles cumulatively, and their market shares were less than 1%.

Compared to June, in July, the top ten natural gas heavy truck sellers remained the same, but their rankings have changed: Shaanxi Auto and Foton switched positions from 4th and 5th in June to 5th and 4th in July, respectively. Dayun and Beiqi Foton switched places from 6th and 7th in June to 7th and 6th in July, respectively, while CNHTC moved up two places from 10th in June to 8th in July. SAIC Hongyan and JAC sold one less natural gas heavy truck year-on-year, causing them both to drop one spot in the rankings. Jiefang, Sinotruk, and Dongfeng maintained their rankings from June among the top three.

From January to July, 2024, China's natural gas heavy truck market sold a total of 0.1267 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 98%. Leading the sector, Jiefang, Sinotruk, and Foton all doubled their sales volume, reaching 0.0406 million units, 0.0321 million units, and 12,000 units, respectively.

From January to July 2024, China's natural gas heavy truck market had a total sales volume of 0.1267 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 98%. Compared to the period after June (which achieved an increase of 104%), this represents a 6% slowdown in cumulative sales volume growth. In July 2024, sales were up 0.0628 million vehicles from the same period last year.

From January to July, the sales volume of natural gas heavy trucks among mainstream companies has varied. However, total sales volume among most companies has been on the rise. Heavy truck sales from Sinotruk, Foton (Auman), and JAC increased by 248%, 220%, and 117%, respectively, from the same period last year, far exceeding the 98% market increase rate, thus achieving double-digit growth and outperforming the natural gas heavy truck market. Jiefang, the top seller, also saw a large increase in sales volume, with a year-on-year increase of 83%. Moreover, Dongfeng, Shaanxi Auto, Dayun, and CNHTC have all achieved double-digit growth and, among them, Beiqi Foton has seen a net increase. Meanwhile, the only company in the top ten with declining sales volume is experiencing a year-on-year drop of 51% in sales from January to July.

After July, a total of five companies had a cumulative sales volume of over 10,000 vehicles. The top five sellers of natural gas heavy trucks in China, namely Jiefang, Sinotruk, Dongfeng, Shaanxi Auto, and Foton, respectively, had a cumulative sales volume of 0.0406 million units, 0.0321 million units, 0.0183 million units, 0.0177 million units, and 12,000 units respectively. Jiefang and Sinotruk have market shares of more than 25% and together captured nearly 57% of the natural gas heavy truck market from January to July this year. Furthermore, Dongfeng, Shaanxi Auto, and Foton had market shares of 14.46%, 14%, and 9.5% respectively. In addition, Dongfeng has surpassed Shaanxi Auto and risen to the top three in the industry since July. They have sold more than 500 units compared to Shaanxi Auto. Dayun ranked sixth with a market share of 1.82%, having sold 2,312 natural gas heavy trucks from January to July this year. Beiqi Foton (Beijing Heavy Duty Truck), meanwhile, sold a total of 1,473 vehicles and ranks seventh, with a market share of 1.16%. Other companies sold less than 1,000 vehicles in total, and their market shares were all less than 1%.

Compared with the same period in 2023, four of the top ten natural gas heavy truck sales companies in the first seven months of this year have achieved an increase in market share. The most significant increase in market share is Sinotruk, whose market share in the first seven months of this year has increased significantly by 10.89 percentage points compared with the same period last year; Foton has increased by 3.61 percentage points, Beiqi Heavy Truck has increased by 1.16 percentage points, and Jianghuai has slightly increased by 0.02 percentage points. The cumulative sales growth of the companies with increased market share is currently higher than 98% of the overall growth of the natural gas heavy truck market (Beiqi Heavy Truck is net growth).

Due to the entry of Peking Heavy Truck, the layout of the natural gas heavy truck industry has changed a lot compared to the year-end ranking last year: Jiefang and Sinotruk, the top two in the industry ranking, and Foton and Dayun, ranked 5th and 6th, respectively, maintained their year-end rankings. Dongfeng and Shaanxi Automobile exchanged positions, and Dongfeng rose to the third in the industry. Beiqi Heavy Truck rose 10 places from 17th in the year-end to 7th in the current industry. Jianghuai rose 2 places from 12th at the year-end to 10th in the current industry. Enterprises ranked 7th to 9th at the end of last year have declined in ranking, and two of them have been squeezed out of the top ten. United Heavy Truck, ranked 10th at the year-end, has luckily retained its qualification for the top ten in the industry and has risen one place from 10th at the year-end to 9th in the current industry.