Key points of investment
Scarce integrated platform for R&D and sales of Biopharma
The company has been committed to developing, producing and selling innovative drugs for diseases such as oncology, metabolism, autoimmunity, and ophthalmology for many years, and has completed the transformation from an innovative biotechnology company to a large biopharmaceutical company. With the subsequent launch of major single products such as Maxidu peptides and the advancement of potential first-in-class (FIC) /best-in-class (BIC) pipelines such as PD-1/IL-2 double antibodies, the company has the potential to continue to grow.
The market prospects for major diseases such as oncology and obesity are broad
The number of patients in the field of anti-tumor and weight loss is huge, and there are unmet clinical needs. There were 4.8247 million new cases of malignant tumors in China in 2022. China's anti-tumor drug market is expected to grow to 586.6 billion yuan in 2030, or a CAGR of 12.4%. In 2020, the prevalence of obesity/overweight among adult residents in China was 50.7%. It is estimated that in 2035, the prevalence rate of obesity/overweight in China will reach 65.3%. Obesity-related medical expenses will exceed 170 billion yuan, or a CAGR of 10.6%.
A number of innovative pharmaceutical products have entered the commercialization period
In 2023, the company achieved product sales revenue of 5.728 billion yuan, an increase of 38.4% over the previous year. A total of 4 new drug indications were approved, 4 new drugs were submitted for marketing, and 10 products entered phase III/critical clinical stage. The company plans to commercialize about 20 innovative pharmaceutical products in 2027, with annual sales of domestic products reaching 20 billion yuan.
Profit forecasting, valuation and investment advice
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 7.844/10.133/13.235 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.4%/29.2%/30.6%, and net profit to mother of -0.533/0.252/1.334 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 48.13%/147.19%/430.17%, EPS of -0.33/0.15/0.82 yuan/share, respectively. Since the company is a leading innovative drug company, its performance is expected to maintain rapid growth and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: clinical progress falls short of expectations, product sales fall short of expectations, market competition intensifies