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Further Upside For FreightCar America, Inc. (NASDAQ:RAIL) Shares Could Introduce Price Risks After 31% Bounce

Simply Wall St ·  Aug 14 19:32

FreightCar America, Inc. (NASDAQ:RAIL) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 31% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 40%.

Although its price has surged higher, FreightCar America may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x, since almost half of all companies in the Machinery industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 1.4x and even P/S higher than 4x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

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NasdaqGS:RAIL Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry August 14th 2024

What Does FreightCar America's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

FreightCar America certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue more than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong revenue performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the share price, and thus the P/S ratio. If the company manages to stay the course, then investors should be rewarded with a share price that matches its revenue figures.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on FreightCar America will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as low as FreightCar America's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 29%. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 220% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 13% as estimated by the only analyst watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to only expand by 0.6%, which is noticeably less attractive.

With this in consideration, we find it intriguing that FreightCar America's P/S sits behind most of its industry peers. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

The Final Word

FreightCar America's stock price has surged recently, but its but its P/S still remains modest. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

FreightCar America's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior revenue outlook isn't contributing to its P/S anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see strong growth forecasts like this, we can only assume potential risks are what might be placing significant pressure on the P/S ratio. It appears the market could be anticipating revenue instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with FreightCar America.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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