Grayscale's Harris Poll, which uses telephone and online surveys to specialize in public opinion research and was founded by Louis Harris and Associates in the United States in 1963, conducted a survey of American voters in the 2024 U.S. presidential election that consisted of two phases as of the project.

Phase 1 survey (November 27-29, 2023)

Today, digital currencies are closely related to Americans because voters' concerns about financial stability and inflation dominate. This is reflected in the values of voters: respondents chose 'financial stability' as the second most important value, ahead of options such as family, patriotism, community involvement, and goal setting.

According to respondents, inflation is currently the most pressing issue in the United States.

In the past, inflation and other economic issues have sparked interest in investing in assets such as Bitcoin. This may be because Bitcoin's hard supply limit (limited currency nature) allows it to serve as a value storage asset similar to digital gold. Nearly one-fifth (19%) of respondents said they hold digital currencies, especially men (23%), black/Hispanic voters (26%; 32%) and young voters (Generation Z, 31%).

Although the proportion of digital currency holders among Americans has not increased after the FTX incident, there are optimistic signs: 40% of investors intend to add digital currencies to their investment portfolios in the future.

Phase 2 Survey (April 2, 2024-May 30, 2024)

In the past six months, since the first phase of this survey, voters' interest in Bitcoin has continued to increase due to geopolitical tensions, inflation, and the risk of the U.S. dollar (41% vs. 34% in November 2023). The Grayscale team added some new questions to the survey for consideration, and the survey found that approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January this year and the halving in April, especially the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, increased voters' interest in investing in Bitcoin and other digital assets (18% and 20%, respectively).

Compared with the time of the first phase of the survey, voters are more inclined to see digital currencies as a good long-term investment opportunity (23% vs. 19%), and more people expect digital currencies to be included in their investment portfolios (47% vs. 40%). 62% of Generation Z (born 1997-2012) and Millennials believe that digital currencies and blockchain technology are the future of finance.

Although Trump is more supportive of digital currencies during the campaign, the data show that digital currencies are a bipartisan issue, with similar digital currency holdings rates among Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%). Voters from both parties still see inflation as the top issue in the United States (23% among Democrats vs. 38% among Republican voters).

There is no consensus among respondents on which party is more favorable to the digital currency industry, with equal proportions of those who believe that the Democratic Party is more favorable to digital currency policy positions and those who believe that the Republican Party is more favorable (30% each). These survey results indicate that support for digital currencies does not lean heavily toward one political party but reflects a balance of interests across the entire political spectrum. This is consistent with the recent bipartisan support in Congress for the SAB 121 resolution.

Since Harris took over as the new Democratic presidential candidate in July, her and Trump's movements have also been closely watched by digital currency industry.

Trump

Former President Trump criticized digital currencies in 2021, saying he was 'not a fan' and that Bitcoin was a 'scam'. However, as a Republican candidate, Trump has been outspoken in his support for the industry and even expressed his hope that all future Bitcoins will be mined in the United States. Now, Trump has formed a 'bond' with digital currencies.

Earlier this year, sources revealed that Trump had discussed digital currency policies with Tesla CEO Elon Musk. However, on the evening of August 12th, during a two-hour conversation between Trump and Musk, both digital currency supporters did not mention digital currency-related content.

2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference

Under the leadership of Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Biden administration has maintained a firm stance on regulating cryptocurrencies. Trump promised at the conference that if elected, he would dismiss Gensler and vowed to end his so-called 'persecution' of the crypto industry, even though Gensler's term will not end until 2026 and such an act is not within the scope of presidential power.

Following the collapse of FTX exchange and other scandals in November 2022, the cryptocurrency industry was angry at the strict regulation under the Biden administration. Trump pledged to promote bitcoin mining in the United States, protect self-custody of cryptocurrencies, and prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency that would compete with the industry.

The agenda of Trump to cut tax rates and reduce government regulation has been welcomed by Wall Street and business interest groups, as they seek to find an alternative to the policies of President Biden and Vice President Harris, who may become the Democratic candidate.

Former US President Donald Trump said that if he returned to the White House, he would ensure that the federal government would never sell its bitcoin holdings. However, he did not propose to establish a formal digital currency Federal Reserve. Compared to other proposals at the conference, this was a less radical one for the cryptocurrency community. Shortly after Trump's speech, Cynthia Lummis, a Republican senator from Wyoming who also attended the Bitcoin conference, said she plans to draft a bill requiring the government to establish a national reserve of up to 1 million bitcoins within five years and hold them for 20 years. During these 20 years, the bitcoin national reserves can only be used to reduce national debt. She said, 'Our goal is to make people realize that bitcoin is a long-term asset. It is digital gold, a hard asset that can support the dollar and ensure that the dollar remains qualified as a world currency.'

Trump's campaign team announced in May that it would start accepting donations in digital assets. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump campaign raised $3 million in cryptocurrency donations out of a total of $331 million raised in the second quarter. The Trump campaign raised $21 million at the Bitcoin conference in 2024. According to OpenSecrets data, donors from the cryptocurrency industry have put in more funds for the 2024 election than in all previous cycles.

"Crypto For Harris" cryptocurrency movement will drive fundraising efforts. The Harris campaign team has shown signs of thaw, hiring former Binance advisor David Plouffe and former Ripple board member Gene Sperling.

The Trump family has also shown a strong interest in DeFi. They revealed a new cryptocurrency project called World Liberty. Donald Trump Jr. released heavy news last Thursday (August 8), announcing the launch of a new cryptocurrency financial platform that attempts to solve the problem of inequality in traditional banking services. Solana launched a new cryptocurrency called 'Restore the Republic' (RTR), which is rumored to be Trump's official token. Its market cap once soared to $155 million, but on Thursday, the former president's son warned that the token plummeted 95% without his father's official token.

Harris.

Harris's position on digital asset regulation lacks clarity.

Although Harris is rumored to have sent her team members to contact with the cryptocurrency industry, and the Democratic Party launched a rare cryptocurrency movement 'Crypto For Harris' to demonstrate a more friendly regulatory attitude, she has not publicly conveyed her views on the industry and future policy, which is undoubtedly a huge risk for the cryptocurrency industry.

David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, even revealed that a major Democratic donor has privately disclosed Harris' negative views on cryptos and said:

"Harris privately said that bitcoin is the money of criminals."

Taking Over from Biden

In July, Biden withdrew and Harris took over. According to her 2023 White House financial disclosure, Harris and her husband did not hold any digital assets.

Harris rarely comments on the crypto industry, but billionaire and crypto supporter Mark Cuban said last month that her advisers raised 'multiple questions' about the industry, suggesting that her attitude towards cryptocurrency may be more friendly than the Biden administration's.

2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference

David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin 2024, met with the Harris campaign team on the eve of the conference and hoped she would speak at the conference. However, Harris ultimately did not attend the Bitcoin conference. Although the conference was not attended, the Harris team also contacted some people associated with major crypto companies, who come from the largest crypto exchanges in the United States, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ well-known companies such as Circle, the stablecoin company, and Ripple Labs, the blockchain payment company.

August 8, 2024 'Thawing Meeting'

Harris's base of iron supporters does not include the cryptocurrency industry, and the substantive action and specific loosening degree are still to be determined.

The Democratic Party and the Biden administration are actively engaging with the crypto industry to ease tensions; however, the progress of last week's online "ice-breaking" meeting between the two sides was clearly far from the friendly ice-breaking goal that the Democratic Party was hoping for. Industry executives not only failed to reach any agreement with the Democratic Party, but instead fiercely criticized White House officials. For example, Conway, a major donor and early investor in Coinbase, expressed strong dissatisfaction with the government's hollow promises.

"Crypto For Harris" cryptocurrency movement will drive fundraising efforts. The Harris campaign team has shown signs of thaw, hiring former Binance advisor David Plouffe and former Ripple board member Gene Sperling.

Cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit offers Bitcoin and Ether options closely tied to the election, allowing investors to make customized bets after the upcoming US presidential election. The contracts offered by the exchange will expire on November 8, three days after the US citizens vote. The options were listed on July 18. The cryptocurrency industry has been focused on the election results, and some observers predict that the election outcome could determine the future of US crypto regulation.

"Investment portfolio manager Cosmo Jiang of investment firm Pantera Capital said that in the past few years, due to the poor regulatory environment in the United States, investment opportunities in the crypto industry have shifted overseas. But as the situation in the United States changes, capital allocation in the crypto industry is shifting. This has been offset by the increased suction power of the United States, which poses a challenge to regions such as Singapore, Dubai, and the United Kingdom, which are striving to become industry leaders. In the past few years, many crypto companies have had to temporarily withdraw from the US market to avoid regulatory scrutiny due to the closure of crypto exchanges like FTX and the tightening of US regulations, which has also led to many crypto companies that have left the US to be absorbed by other countries such as South Korea during this "refuge period". Trump's agenda of "making all Bitcoin mining take place in the US" may also be aimed at this situation and is a key part of his "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) campaign slogan."

Cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit offers Bitcoin and Ether options closely tied to the election, allowing investors to make customized bets after the upcoming US presidential election. The contracts offered by the exchange will expire on November 8, three days after the US citizens vote. The options were listed on July 18. The cryptocurrency industry has been focused on the election results, and some observers predict that the election outcome could determine the future of US crypto regulation.

Cosmo Jiang, portfolio manager of investment firm Pantera Capital, said that in recent years, due to the bad regulatory environment in the United States, investment opportunities in the crypto industry have shifted overseas. However, with the changing situation in the United States, capital allocation in the crypto industry is also shifting. As the United States' siphoning ability increases and challenges regions such as Singapore, Dubai and the United Kingdom that strive to become industry leaders. In the past few years, the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX, the tightening of U.S. regulation, many crypto companies have had to withdraw from the U.S. market in order to avoid regulation and have also led to many leaving the U.S. and relocating to countries such as South Korea. Trump's agenda to "make all bitcoin mining in the United States" may also be aimed at this situation and could benefit local mining companies. Cryptocurrency is not an exclusive chip for a single political party, and the industry shows a balanced level of attention from all angles of the political spectrum, which also shows that cryptocurrencies are becoming an increasingly important issue in political dynamics. $Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$ $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ $CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$ Local mining companies are also expected to benefit.

In a report released on Monday, August 12, analysts at investment firm Bernstein wrote that Harris's popularity in the presidential election is increasingly hot, which may be one of the reasons for the recent price drop. According to a recent survey by crypto investment firm Paradigm of 804 registered Democrats, 13% of respondents have not yet decided whether to vote for Harris. Among them, 18% invested in cryptocurrency, and 21% of cryptocurrency investors believed that the Biden administration was "too hostile" to the industry.$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ Currently, Trump, who is widely regarded as a supporter of cryptocurrencies, has also expressed strong doubts about the logic of the crypto industry in the past, while Harris, who holds a conservative attitude towards the crypto industry, has been constantly contacting industry insiders recently. In the midst of words and deeds, the attitudes of the two towards the crypto industry reflect the interest groups and capital games behind the election. As the results of the second phase of Harris's public opinion poll showed, support for cryptocurrency did not tilt towards any political party, but rather indicated a balance of interests across the entire political spectrum.

"Investment portfolio manager Cosmo Jiang of investment firm Pantera Capital said that in the past few years, due to the poor regulatory environment in the United States, investment opportunities in the crypto industry have shifted overseas. But as the situation in the United States changes, capital allocation in the crypto industry is shifting. This has been offset by the increased suction power of the United States, which poses a challenge to regions such as Singapore, Dubai, and the United Kingdom, which are striving to become industry leaders. In the past few years, many crypto companies have had to temporarily withdraw from the US market to avoid regulatory scrutiny due to the closure of crypto exchanges like FTX and the tightening of US regulations, which has also led to many crypto companies that have left the US to be absorbed by other countries such as South Korea during this "refuge period". Trump's agenda of "making all Bitcoin mining take place in the US" may also be aimed at this situation and is a key part of his "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) campaign slogan."

The cryptocurrency industry is not a single political party's exclusive chip. The industry shows a balanced level of attention from all angles of the political spectrum, which also shows that cryptocurrencies are becoming an increasingly important issue in political dynamics.

Edited by/Andreswang