在此之前，Rubner曾准确预测过美股的下跌。他在6月下旬建议，在7月4日之后削减对美国股市的敞口，并认为股市在7月17日之前处于“融涨的最后阶段”。事实也证明，标普500指数在7月16日创下收盘新高，而目前已较该高位水平下跌约6%。Goldman Sachs strategy expert Scott Rubner recently pointed out that after the turbulence in the US stock market last week, there will be a brief buying window at the end of this month. Rubner accurately predicted the recent pullback in US stocks in June. He recently stated that the worst phase of the August US stock market is about to end and he will turn to a "tactical call" strategy for US stocks at the end of August. In advance of this, Rubner suggested reducing exposure to the US stock market after July 4th in late June, believing that the stock market would be in the last phase of its rally before the July 17th. As a matter of fact, the S&P 500 index hit a new closing high on July 16th and has since fallen by about 6% from that level. Single stock futures in USA worth $109 billion were sold off in the past month by systematic funds that follow market signals and volatility patterns based on rules, according to Goldman Sachs data. After experiencing a severe volatility last week, the market's concerns gradually subsided, and the systemic selling pressure also eased. The US stock market closed basically flat on Monday, August 12. According to Rubner's view, the selling pressure on US stocks will continue in the next seven days, but he said that "enough evidence has been seen to show that the worst market technical aspects have passed." Rubner also said that he will buy in the first half of September. Rubner believes that another reason for the stock market rebound may be that the level of corporate buybacks from August to September is usually second only to November to December. According to Goldman Sachs' current estimate, 90% of the constituents of the S&P 500 index are about to enter the buyback window, which will remain open until September 6th. Rubner also pointed out that companies may use this pullback to generate an average of about $4.75 billion in purchasing power per day before the buyback window closes. However, Rubner warned investors that the market outlook will deteriorate again after a certain point in September, and the market will not show a clear upward trend until the fourth quarter and the US November election.
On August 13, Caixin Media reported that Scott Rubner, managing director and strategy expert at Goldman Sachs, said the systemic selling pressure of funds has eased and some companies have increased their share buybacks. Investors will have a brief window to buy U.S. stocks at the end of August. Rubner wrote in a report to his clients on August 12 that the worst stage of the mismatch between supply and demand in the stock market in August is about to end, and he will turn to a "tactical call" strategy for U.S. stocks at the end of August.
Rubner wrote in a report to his clients on Monday, August 12 that the worst phase of the mismatch between supply and demand in the US stock market in August is about to end, and he will turn to a "tactical call" strategy for US stocks at the end of August.
Before that, Rubner accurately predicted the decline in the US stock market. In late June, he recommended reducing exposure to the US stock market after July 4th and believed that the stock market would be in the last phase of its rally before July 17th. As a matter of fact, the S&P 500 index hit a new closing high on July 16th and has since fallen by about 6% from that level.
Last week, investors were concerned that the Federal Reserve's action to cut interest rates was too slow and would drag down the economy, resulting in a sharp market fluctuation. Goldman Sachs' data also showed that over the past month, systematic funds that rely on market signals and volatility patterns and are rules-based sold global equity futures worth $109 billion.
However, after experiencing a sharp fluctuation last week, the market's concerns gradually dissipated, and the selling pressure of systematic funds also eased. The US stock market closed basically flat on Monday, August 12th.
According to Rubner's view, the selling pressure on US stocks will continue in the next seven days, but he said that "enough evidence has been seen to show that the worst technical aspects of the market has passed." Rubner also said that he will buy in the first half of September.
Rubner believes that another reason for the stock market rebound may be that the level of corporate buybacks from August to September is usually second only to November to December.
Goldman Sachs' current estimate shows that 90% of the constituents of the S&P 500 index are about to enter the buyback window, which will remain open until September 6th. Rubner also pointed out that companies may use this pullback to generate an average of about $4.75 billion in purchasing power per day before the buyback window closes.
However, Rubner warned investors that the market outlook will deteriorate again after a certain point in September, and the market will not show a clear upward trend until the fourth quarter and the US November election.