Ewa Manthey, the commodity strategist of ING, said that the gold price will peak in the fourth quarter because investors are concerned about the Fed's rate cuts. Against the background of geopolitical risk, ETF inflows and central bank purchases will continue to support the gold price. According to Manthey's monthly update report, due to concerns about a US economic recession, the gold price fell at the beginning of last week, following the global stock market sell-off. However, Manthey said, "Looking ahead, we believe that with the uncertainty of geopolitical tensions and the expectation of the Fed's rate cut, gold should regain its footing. We believe that after the consolidation phase, the gold price will maintain its upward momentum." She wrote that the attention of gold investors is completely focused on the magnitude and timing of the expected Fed rate cut. She said, "Since July last year, the Fed has kept its key policy rate within the target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in more than 20 years. Economists now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, followed by a series of 25 basis points cuts that will return the federal funds rate to around 3.5% next summer." She pointed out that central bank bids remained relatively strong in June, with World Gold Council data showing net central bank buying of 12 tons of gold in June. Purchases in June were once again led by central banks in emerging markets. Uzbekistan and India both increased their gold reserves by 9 tons this month. She pointed out, "In the current economic environment, geopolitical tensions and the background of prices falling from record highs, we still expect strong central bank demand." In addition, they also pointed out that funds continue to maintain a recent trend of net inflows. Gold ETFs maintained net inflows in June. She wrote, "According to World Gold Council data, after experiencing the strongest month since May 2023, global gold ETFs have now seen two consecutive months of inflows." In June, significant buying in Europe and Asia offset capital outflows from North America. Manthey said, "When the gold price rises, investors usually increase their holdings of gold ETFs, and vice versa." ING believes that due to geopolitical factors continuing to drive gold price trends, gold prices will peak in the fourth quarter. She said, "The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East situation and the rise of US trade protectionism indicate that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term. Analysts said, "The November US presidential election and the long-awaited Fed rate cut will also continue to enhance the gold's upward momentum until the end of the year. It is expected that central banks around the world will continue to increase their holdings, which should provide support."

Manthey pointed out in the bank's monthly update report that due to concerns about a US economic recession, the gold price fell last week along with the global stock market sell-off.

"Looking ahead, we believe that with the uncertainty of geopolitical tensions and the expectation of the Fed's rate cut, gold should regain its footing. We believe that after the consolidation phase, the gold price will maintain its upward momentum." She said, "The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East situation and the rise of US trade protectionism indicate that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term."

She wrote that the attention of gold investors is completely focused on the magnitude and timing of the expected Fed rate cut.

"Since July last year, the Fed has kept its key policy rate within the target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in more than 20 years. Economists now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, followed by a series of 25 basis points cuts that will return the federal funds rate to around 3.5% next summer."

She pointed out that central bank bids remained relatively strong in June, with World Gold Council data showing net central bank buying of 12 tons of gold in June. Purchases in June were once again led by central banks in emerging markets. Uzbekistan and India both increased their gold reserves by 9 tons this month. She pointed out, "In the current economic environment, geopolitical tensions and the background of prices falling from record highs, we still expect strong central bank demand."

She pointed out, "In the current economic environment, geopolitical tensions and the background of prices falling from record highs, we still expect strong central bank demand."

In addition, they also pointed out that funds continue to maintain a recent trend of net inflows.

"According to World Gold Council data, after experiencing the strongest month since May 2023, global gold ETFs have now seen two consecutive months of inflows." In June, significant buying in Europe and Asia offset capital outflows from North America.

Manthey said, "When the gold price rises, investors usually increase their holdings of gold ETFs, and vice versa."

ING believes that due to geopolitical factors continuing to drive gold price trends, gold prices will peak in the fourth quarter. She said, "The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East situation and the rise of US trade protectionism indicate that safe-haven demand will continue to support gold prices in the short to medium term."

Analysts said, "The November US presidential election and the long-awaited Fed rate cut will also continue to enhance the gold's upward momentum until the end of the year. It is expected that central banks around the world will continue to increase their holdings, which should provide support."

Editor/Somer