Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Packaging Corporation of America Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Packaging Corporation of America had US$3.16b of debt, an increase on US$2.47b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.18b, its net debt is less, at about US$1.98b.
How Healthy Is Packaging Corporation of America's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Packaging Corporation of America had liabilities of US$1.40b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$3.43b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.18b as well as receivables valued at US$1.05b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.60b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Of course, Packaging Corporation of America has a titanic market capitalization of US$17.5b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Packaging Corporation of America's net debt is only 1.3 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 24.2 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. But the bad news is that Packaging Corporation of America has seen its EBIT plunge 17% in the last twelve months. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Packaging Corporation of America's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Packaging Corporation of America recorded free cash flow worth 57% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Packaging Corporation of America was the fact that it seems able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. In particular, EBIT growth rate gives us cold feet. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Packaging Corporation of America is managing its debt quite well. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Packaging Corporation of America has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.