As Nvidia Leads Magnificent 7 Volatility, Analyst Says These Mega-Caps Are Poised To Outperform Small-Caps — But There's A Catch
As Nvidia Leads Magnificent 7 Volatility, Analyst Says These Mega-Caps Are Poised To Outperform Small-Caps — But There's A Catch
Mega-cap stocks, led by the Magnificent Seven companies, continue to be at the forefront, whether it is a rally or a pullback, underlining their undue influence on the market. Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Erik Woodring on Wednesday delved into the damage the sell-off has inflicted on the mega-cap space and the outlook for these stocks.
無論是漲還是跌，由科技七巨頭公司領導的大市值股票仍然處於市場的前沿，凸顯了它們對市場的不當影響。在這種背景下，摩根士丹利分析師艾瑞克伍德林等人於週三深入研究了拋售對大市值股票造成的損害以及這些股票的前景。
Valuation Not So Depressed? The Magnificent Seven valuations are now 30% off the trailing five-year peak but still 50% above the trailing five-year trough, said Morgan Stanley analysts in the note. "This compares to the NASDAQ 100 that is 20% off its T5Y valuation high and 37% above its T5Y valuation low, and the Russell 2000 that is 56% off its T5Y valuation highs but 50% above its T5Y valuation low," the analysts said.
估值並不那麼低迷？摩根士丹利分析師在報告中表示，科技七巨頭的估值已經比五年來的峯值低30％，但仍高出五年來的谷底50％。”分析師稱：「這與納斯達克100指數相比，後者的估值已經低於峯值20％，比谷底高出了37％，羅素2000指數也已低於峯值56％，但比谷底高出了50％。」
The group comprises seven of the biggest mega-cap stocks, belonging to the IT and communication services sectors, as well as the electric-vehicle industry. The constituents are:
該組由七家最大的大市值股票組成，分別屬於IT和通訊服務部門以及電動汽車行業。成分股包括：
- Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA)
- Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT)
- Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META)
- Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
- Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG)
- Amazon, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)
- Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
- 英偉達公司（納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA）
- 微軟公司 (納斯達克代碼: MSFT)
- Meta Platforms, Inc.（NASDAQ：META）
- 蘋果公司 (納斯達克代碼: AAPL)
- 字母表公司 (納斯達克代碼: GOOGL) (納斯達克代碼: GOOG)
- 亞馬遜公司 (納斯達克代碼: AMZN)
- 特斯拉公司（納斯達克股票代碼：TSLA）
Attractive On Future Growth: While adjusting for future earnings per share growth, the group traded at a 40% discount to the trailing five-year price-earnings growth ratio, said Woodring. This, according to the analyst, is the critical distinction in a soft-landing scenario and supports the case for the Magnificent Seven stocks outperforming small-caps.
未來增長具吸引力: 在調整未來每股收益增長率時，伍德林說，相較於過去五年的市盈率增長比率，該組股票的交易價格低了40％，這是分析師在軟着陸場景下的關鍵區別，並支持科技七巨頭股票在小型股票中表現優越的情況。
Following the recent stock market sell-off, the Magnificent Seven stocks were down 9% month-to-date through Aug. 5, on average, the analyst noted. This compared to the S&P 500's 6% decline and the Nasdaq's 8% decline, he said.
在最近的股市拋售中，這七支股票自月初至8月5日已經下跌了9％，分析師指出。他說：「這與標準普爾500指數的下跌6％以及納斯達克指數的8％下跌相比。」
The analyst noted that Tesla and Nvidia were the relative underperformers in the group, flat for the month-to-date period.
該分析師指出，特斯拉和英偉達是該組股票的相對錶現不佳者，本月至今持平。
"As a result, we'd conclude that while Mag 7 valuations still face significant downside valuation risk in a black swan or recession scenario, current Mag 7 valuations relative to future growth prospects are attractive after the recent drawdown," Morgan Stanley said.
摩根士丹利表示：「因此，我們得出結論，在黑天鵝或經濟衰退的情況下，科技七巨頭的估值仍面臨重大下行風險，但在最近的回撤之後，相對於未來增長前景，它們的估值具有吸引力。」
The view comes amid expectations that the mega-cap momentum will moderate, potentially giving the lead to small-caps, as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates, beginning in September. Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests the Mag 7 rally may have further leg as long as the economy averts a recession or hard landing.
該觀點出現在對大市值股票動量將逐漸減弱的預期中，潛在地讓小市值股票走在前面，因爲聯邦儲備系統普遍預計將從9月份開始削減利率。摩根士丹利的分析顯示，只要經濟避免陷入衰退或硬着陸，科技七巨頭的上漲可能還有後續。
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) climbed 0.64% to $450.94 in premarket trading Friday and the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NASDAQ:MAGS) rose 1.35% to $420.70, according to Benzinga Pro data. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) gained 0.72% to $208.38.
根據Benzinga Pro數據，納斯達克100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust (納斯達克代碼: QQQ) 盤前上漲0.64％，至450.94美元，而Magnificent Seven ETF- Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (納斯達克代碼: MAGS) 上漲1.35％，至420.70美元，紐約證券交易所技術指數ETF (NYSE代碼: IWM) 上漲0.72％，至208.38美元。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。