YUEXIU TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE(01052.HK):1H24 RESULTS MISS ON WEAK REVENUE AND INCREASED COST
YUEXIU TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE(01052.HK):1H24 RESULTS MISS ON WEAK REVENUE AND INCREASED COST
Toll revenue from controlled projects edged down; expiry of Beihuan Expressway's toll right weighed on investment income. Toll revenue fell 5.1% YoY to Rmb1.79bn in 1H24, as: 1) rainy and snowy weather increased in central and eastern China around the Chinese New Year holiday; 2) the number of toll-free days during holidays rose by four days compared with last year; and 3) traffic diversion caused by changes in road network. In 1H24, revenue of the Beierhuan Expressway fell 7.9% YoY due to the opening of Congpu Expressway, and revenue of the Daguangnan Expressway fell 8.1% YoY as roads of the Wuhuang Expressway were closed for construction, and traffic volume was diverted from the Wuyang Expressway.1H24 results miss our expectations
1H24的结果改善低于我们的预期
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure announced its 1H24 results: Revenue fell 5.6% YoY to Rmb1.83bn and net profit attributable to shareholders fell 26.5% YoY to Rmb314mn, missing our expectations as revenue was disrupted by rainy and snowy weather, while depreciation and amortization costs rose more than we expected. In 1H24, the firm paid an interim dividend of HK$0.12/sh, implying a dividend payout ratio of 58.5% (vs. HK$0.15/sh and 53.8% in 1H23).
粤海置地基础设施公布了1H24年报：营业收入同比下降5.6%至18.3亿元人民币，归属于股东的净利润同比下降26.5%至3.14亿元人民币，未达到我们的预期。营收受到阴雨雪天气的影响，而折旧和摊销费用上升超过我们的预期。在1H24中，该公司支付了股息每股港元0.12元，暂定派息比率为58.5%（与1H23的股息每股港元0.15元和派息比率53.8%相比）。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趋势
Toll revenue from controlled projects edged down; expiry of Beihuan Expressway's toll right weighed on investment income. Toll revenue fell 5.1% YoY to Rmb1.79bn in 1H24, as: 1) rainy and snowy weather increased in central and eastern China around the Chinese New Year holiday; 2) the number of toll-free days during holidays rose by four days compared with last year; and 3) traffic diversion caused by changes in road network. In 1H24, revenue of the Beierhuan Expressway fell 7.9% YoY due to the opening of Congpu Expressway, and revenue of the Daguangnan Expressway fell 8.1% YoY as roads of the Wuhuang Expressway were closed for construction, and traffic volume was diverted from the Wuyang Expressway.
受控项目收费收入微降；北环高速公路收费权到期影响投资收益。1H24年，收费收入同比下降5.1%至17.9亿元人民币，原因包括：1）中国中部和东部在春节期间出现了增多的阴雨雪天气；2）与去年相比，假期期间的免费通行天数增加了四天；3）车辆通行分流由于道路纷繁变化。1H24年，贝尔环高速公路的收入同比下降7.9%，原因是由于聪铺高速公路的开通，以及大广南高速公路的收入同比下降8.1%。因为悟黄高速公路为施工而关闭，交通流量从武阳高速公路分流过来。
In addition, the firm recognized a loss of Rmb20.43mn in 1H24 as the toll rights of its associate project Guangzhou Beihuan Expressway ended on March 22, leading to a 56.7% decline in the firm's gains from the project.
此外，该公司还因其联营项目广州北环高速公路的收费权于2024年3月22日结束而在1H24年承认了损失2043万元，导致该项目的收益较去年同期同比下降了56.7%。
Depreciation, amortization and maintenance costs rose; profitability declined. As the company's depreciation and amortization are based on expected toll traffic volume, the amortization of intangible land management rights increased 10.1% YoY despite a YoY decline in actual traffic volume in 1H24, and maintenance expenses increased 39.0% YoY due to rainy and snowy weather. As a result, the gross margin of road assets controlled by the company fell 6ppt YoY to 50.1% in 1H24. The firm's profitability weakened.
折旧、摊销和维护费用上升，利润率下降。由于公司的折旧和摊销是根据预期的通行车辆数量计算的，即使实际通行量在1H24年同比下降，无形土地管理权的摊销费用同比仍增加了10.1%，而由于阴雨雪天气，保养费用同比上升了39.0%。因此，该公司控制的道路资产毛利率在1H24中同比下降6个PPT至50.1%。该公司的盈利能力在减弱。
In the medium and long term, we expect the firm to grow through M&A, reconstruction, expansion. According to corporate filings, the reconstruction and expansion of the firm's core road asset, Guangzhou North Second Ring Expressway, started construction in June 2024. We believe the completion of this project will further improve traffic capacity and extend the toll collection period. Moreover, Yuexiu Group has acquired Shandong Qinbin Expressway and Henan Pinglin Expressway. We believe these assets may be injected into the firm to further expand its assets and boost earnings.
在中长期内，我们预计该公司将通过并购、重组和扩张来增长。根据公司的文件，公司的核心公路资产——广州北二环高速公路的重建和扩建于2024年6月开始施工。我们认为，该项目的完成将进一步提高交通容量并延长收费期间。此外，越秀集团已收购山东钦宾高速公路和河南平林高速公路。我们认为这些资产可能注入该公司，以进一步扩大其资产和提高盈利能力。
Financials and valuation
财务和估值。
We cut our 2024 and 2025 net profit forecasts 19.8% and 19.8% to Rmb659mn and Rmb692mn, as revenue came under pressure and costs rose more than we expected. The stock is trading at 8.2x and 7.8x 2024e and 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating, and we cut our target price 19.8% to HK$4.16, implying 9.5x 2024e and 9.1x 2025e P/E, and dividend yields of 7.3% in 2024 and 7.7% in 2025, offering 16.2% upside..
我们将2024年和2025年的净利润预测下调19.8%，至6.59亿元人民币和6.92亿元人民币，因营收承压而费用上涨超过我们的预期。该股票的2024E和2025E市盈率分别为8.2倍和7.8倍。我们维持其优于大市评级，将目标价下调19.8%至4.16港元，对应2024E和2025E市盈率分别为9.5倍和9.1倍，以及2024年和2025年的股息收益率分别为7.3%和7.7%，提供16.2%的上涨空间。
Risks
风险
Disappointing economic growth; higher-than-expected capex; changes in toll collection policies.
经济增长不及预期；资本支出超预期；收费政策变化。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。
