#Gold Technical Analysis# 24K99 News On Friday (August 9th), spot gold basically stabilized after a tremendous surge yesterday, and currently the gold price is trading near $2426 / oz. FXStreet's chief analyst Valeria Bednarik wrote an analysis of the technical outlook for gold.

Bednarik pointed out that after recovering above $2400 / oz, gold resumed its upward trend. As gold price broke the first resistance at $2424 / oz, gold may further strengthen, with the next target being to conquer the resistance at $2438.80 / oz.

On Thursday, gold soared sharply due to stable safe-haven demand and the expectation of a significant cut in interest rates by the Fed in September.

Spot gold rose $44.51 and closed on Thursday, up 1.87%, at $2427.11 / oz, ending five consecutive trading days of decline.

Bednarik wrote that the market speculates that the Fed will cut interest rates more significantly than previously estimated, which benefits gold. A few months ago, speculative interest considered that the Fed had limited hope for the second interest rate cut by the end of the year after the first cut. However, the latest macroeconomic data shows that the economy may face recession, which triggers speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates three times before the end of the year. In addition, market participants began to believe that the Fed may cut interest rates before the upcoming September meeting.

According to CME's 'Fed Watch' tool, the market expects a 72% chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, higher than 70% on Monday, and further rate cuts in December.

Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer of Allegiance Gold, said: 'The gold prospects are still strong, but the volatility is increasing. If the Fed cuts interest rates by 0.5%, we expect the precious metals markets to rise further.'

Short-term technical outlook for gold

Bednarik said that the gold price rallied strongly on Thursday. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June/July rebound trend of $2411.20/oz forms the recent support level. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2438.80/oz forms the resistance level.

Bednarik said that the daily gold chart shows that the technical data supports the bullish trend of the gold price. The technical indicators has firmly turned upward but still in the neutral level. At the same time, the gold price is still above the bullish 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and 200-day SMA.

Bednarik added that in the short term, according to the four-hour gold chart, technical indicators make the gold price trend more inclined to upward risk, but the momentum seems limited. The gold price is currently trading above the moderately bearish 100-period SMA, while the 20-period SMA and the 200-period SMA lack directional strength below the gold price. Finally, the technical indicators are entering the positive zone with a moderate upward tendency, which is not enough to confirm another wave of upward trend.

(Spot gold 4-hour chart source: FXStreet)

Bednarik gave the latest important support and resistance levels for the gold price:

Support: $2411.20 / oz; $2397.90 / oz; $2388.10 / oz

Resistance: $2438.80 / oz; $2452.90 / oz

At 10:22 Beijing time, spot gold was reported at $2426.35 / oz.