In August, with the addition of Qixi Festival and the fluctuation of gold prices, many investors are targeting the phased "lowlands" of gold prices to enter the market, and the trading heat of gold continues to rise. Recently, many banks ranging from state-owned banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank to many small and medium-sized banks have joined the promotion of gold products or cumulative gold business. In August, the price of gold continued to fluctuate. However, many institutions believe that the long-term trend of gold prices has certain support.
According to the 2024 Qixi gift consumption observation album released by Taobao today, the 'gold big cake' with investment value has entered the top ten list. The turnover of the gold category increased by 255% compared with the previous period, mainly for investment gold bars and other value-preserving gold jewelry.
In August, as Qixi overlaps with fluctuations in gold prices, many investors are focusing on buying during this period. Compared with branded gold shops, commercial banks' investment gold bar prices are usually discounted by more than 100 yuan, so commercial banks are also investors' top choice for buying gold. This week, both surveys of banking outlets and investors' feedback show that the sales of bank gold have increased significantly.
Banks have seized the opportunity to promote Qixi gold products.
According to bank staff, this week there has been a significant increase in the amount of inquiries and transactions in gold products. A state-owned bank's wealth management manager revealed: 'Recently, many people have bought gold, especially when the price of gold fell a while ago and the demand increased. Many investors purchase and store gold in their accounts.'
At the same time, social media has also ignited a 'buying gold fever' among banks. Multiple investors 'lie in wait' for low-priced bank gold accumulation plans and investment gold bar prices, updating them daily on social media. An experienced individual investor shared: 'The As You Wish gold accumulation plan fell below 560 yuan/gram a few days ago, the lowest price in the past month. I purchased 4 grams at once.' Due to the support of some banks, after the cumulative purchase of a certain weight of the accumulation plan, investors can withdraw it as physical gold. Since the threshold for purchasing an accumulation plan is low and convenient, discussions on related investments have been on the rise.
The trend of gold investment, represented by accumulation plans, has driven more banks to pay more attention to precious metal businesses and actively deploy accumulation plan businesses. The Bank of Nanjing launched personal accumulation plan business last week, allowing customers to obtain gold weight by actively subscribing or investing in gold on a regular basis. It has the advantages of low investment threshold, strong flexibility, and simple and convenient operation.
Recently, many banks have also increased their propaganda efforts and preferential policies for buying gold during Qixi. From state-owned banks such as ICBC and China Construction Bank to many small and medium-sized banks, they have all joined the promotion of gold products or accumulation plan businesses. For example, during the promotional period, ICBC customers who purchase designated precious metal products through the ICBC app can receive corresponding discounts on WeChat, ranging from 50 yuan to 400 yuan. The Shaoxing branch of Taizhou Bank launched a preferential promotion of branded gold bars. Customers who purchase handicraft gold products of more than 1,000 yuan can enjoy a policy of 5 yuan/gram discount on the current selling price on the same day.
In addition, China Construction Bank also launched the 'Gold accompanies happiness, romantic Qixi' campaign, promoting a series of Au9999 gold products, such as 'CCB's Gold Grains', 'CCB's Golden Dragon Soaring the Four Seas', 'CCB's Golden Water Moon Soft Hand Chain', and 'CCB's Gold Investment Gold Bar'.
Analysts: Gold prices may fluctuate.
In August, gold prices have continued to fluctuate. Last week, due to weak employment data released by the US, the expectation of interest rate cuts increased, which led to a continued rise in gold prices, and the COMEX gold futures price once exceeded $2,500 per ounce in intraday trading on August 1. However, this week, affected by the turbulence in the global financial market, the precious metal market has also experienced fluctuations, and the price of gold once dropped. The latest data shows that the COMEX gold price has risen to $2,452.60 per ounce, an increase of nearly 1.20%. How should we view the future trend of gold prices for a certain period of time?
In the long run, many institutions believe that the trend of gold prices has certain support. DBS Group analyst Wu Junyong pointed out that the target price of gold for the next 12 months has been raised to $2,500 per ounce, and the previous target price was $2,250. Even if the situation of interest rate cuts is not clear yet, the overall gold market is still bullish.
Citibank analysts believe that the proportion of investment demand for gold versus gold mining supply is the main driving factor for gold pricing. Over the past two years, investment demand from central banks has continued to increase, occupying the major part of mine supply, which has driven the continuous rise in gold prices. It is expected that the central bank's purchase of gold can support the price of gold reaching $2,700 to $3,000 per ounce by 2025.
Some analysts have also suggested that the gold price may show a trend of volatility. "If there is no major risk event disturbance, the probability of a trend market of rise or fall in the gold price is low." Dai Chaosheng, an analyst at Cinda Futures, believes that even if interest rates start to fall in September, it does not necessarily mean a significant bullish trend for the gold price, as a review of the past few rounds of interest rate cuts shows that under preventive interest rate cuts, the gold price performed average after the cuts.