YUEXIU TRANSPORT(1052.HK):1H24 EARNINGS DOWN 27% YOY BELOW OUR EXPECTATION; EXPECT A BETTER 2H24E
YUEXIU TRANSPORT(1052.HK):1H24 EARNINGS DOWN 27% YOY BELOW OUR EXPECTATION; EXPECT A BETTER 2H24E
Capex guidance. Capex in 1H24 amounted to ~RMB300mn. Mgmt. guided a full year capex of RMB2bn (RMB1.7bn in 2H24E, comprising RMB1.2bn for the GNSR Expressway R&E project).Yuexiu Transport's net profit in 1H24 dropped 27% YoY to RMB314mn, 14% below our estimate. The miss was due to (1) lower-than-expected gross margin and (2) share of loss insured (RMB20mn) due to the expiration of concession right of Northern Ring Road starting from Mar 2024. Yuexiu Transport proposed interim dividend of HK$0.12/share, implying 58.5% dividend payout ratio (1H23: 53.8%). The Company expects an improvement of traffic in 2H24E, and expects a payout ratio target of 50-60% can be maintained. We are still positive on Yuexiu Transport, and expect asset injection from parent company to serve as a catalyst this year. Maintain BUY with an unchanged DCF-based TP of HK$5.9. n 1H24 results highlights. Revenue dropped 6% YoY to RMB1.82bn (~1% below our estimate). Gross margin narrowed 6.5ppt YoY to 50.1% (vs our estimate of 54.6%), due to operating deleverage. Profit from associates & JV dropped 41% YoY to RMB76mn, due to the expiration of concession right of Northern Ring Road in Mar 2024. Net finance expense dropped 14% YoY to RMB232mn, as effective interest cost reduced to 2.93% at end-Jun (vs 3.24% at end 2023). Net profit dropped 27% YoY to RMB314mn. Operating cash inflow dropped 12% YoY to RMB1.18bn. As at end Jun 2024, net debt/equity ratio was stable at 98.6% (vs 99% by end-2023).
粤秀交通1H24净利润同比下降27％至3.14亿元人民币，低于我们的估计14％。 错过原因是：（1）毛利率低于预期（2）北环路特许权到期，由于损失保险分担（2,000万元人民币）。 粤秀交通提议派发每股0.12港元的中期股息，暗示股息支付率为58.5％（1H23：53.8％）。 公司预计2H24E交通情况将有所改善，并期望维持50-60％的支付比例目标。 我们仍然对粤秀交通持积极态度，预计母公司注资将成为今年的催化剂。 保持买入，目标价为5.9港元，基于DCF无变化。 1H24业绩亮点。 营业收入同比下降6％至18.2亿元人民币（约低于我们的估计1％）。 毛利率同比下降6.5个百分点，至50.1％（与我们的预期54.6％相比），这是由于运营去杠杆化。 从联营企业和合营企业的利润同比下降41％至7600万元人民币，这是由于北环路的特许权在2024年3月到期。 净财务费用同比下降14％至2.32亿元人民币，因为截至6月底有效利率成本降至2.93％（截至2023年底为3.24％）。 净利润同比下降27％至3.14亿元人民币。 经营现金流入同比下降12％至11.8亿元人民币。 截至2024年6月底，净债务/股本比率稳定在98.6％（2023年底为99％）。
Transfer of Northern Ring Road project. Yuexiu Transport reported RMB20mn share of loss as the concession right of Northern Ring Road project was expired on 22 Mar 2024. According to Yuexiu Transport, the transfer of the project is still in progress. Working force of the JV has been dismissed while the maintenance expense of the project is still borne by the JV.
北环路项目转让。 由于北环路特许权于2024年3月22日到期，粤秀交通报告了2,000万元人民币的损失分担。 根据粤秀交通，该项目的转让仍在进行中。 JV的工作人员已被解雇，而项目的维护费用仍由JV承担。
Impact of the commencement of Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge. Humen Bridge contributed RMB46mn share of profit in 1H24 (+6% YoY). According to Yuexiu Transport, the traffic diversion from Humen Bridge hit 36% in the first week of the commencement (30 Jun) of Shen-Zhong Bridge, and reduced to 17-26% afterwards. The overall impact at present is 25%, which is better than the Company's previous expectation of 28%.
深圳-中山大桥的开通对人民桥的影响。 人民桥在1H24中贡献了46亿元的利润份额（同比增长6％）。 根据粤秀交通的说法，自深-中大桥于6月30日启动以来，人民桥的交通分流率达36％，之后降至17-26％。 目前的总体影响为25％，好于公司此前预期的28％。
Capex guidance. Capex in 1H24 amounted to ~RMB300mn. Mgmt. guided a full year capex of RMB2bn (RMB1.7bn in 2H24E, comprising RMB1.2bn for the GNSR Expressway R&E project).
资本支出指导。 1H24的资本支出总额约为3亿元人民币。 管理层指导全年资本支出为20亿元人民币（2H24E为17亿元人民币，其中包括高铁南北快线修复项目的12亿元人民币）。
Key risk factors: (1) diversion of traffic from other parallel toll roads, (2) rebound of gearing ratio and finance expenses, and (3) uncertainties on the GNSR expansion project.
关键风险因素：（1）来自其他平行收费公路的交通分流，（2）杠杆率和财务费用的反弹，以及（3）高鐵南北快线扩建项目的不确定性。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。
