Is AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) A Good Stock To Buy?
Is AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) A Good Stock To Buy?
Amid an overall bull market, many stocks that smart money investors were collectively bullish on surged through the end of November. Among them, Facebook and Microsoft ranked among the top 3 picks and these stocks gained 54% and 51% respectively. Our research shows that most of the stocks that smart money likes historically generate strong risk-adjusted returns. That's why we weren't surprised when hedge funds’ top 20 large-cap stock picks generated a return of 37.4% through the end of November and outperformed the broader market benchmark by 9.9 percentage points.This is why following the smart money sentiment is a useful tool at identifying the next stock to invest in.
AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC)was in 15 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the third quarter of 2019. AGNC has seen a decrease in support from the world's most elite money managers lately. There were 23 hedge funds in our database with AGNC positions at the end of the previous quarter. Our calculations also showed that AGNC isn't among the30 most popular stocks among hedge funds(click for Q3 rankings and see the video below for Q2 rankings). Video: Click the image to watch our video about the top 5 most popular hedge fund stocks.
Why do we pay any attention at all to hedge fund sentiment? Our research has shown that hedge funds' large-cap stock picks indeed failed to beat the market between 1999 and 2016. However, we were able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that outperformed the Russell 2000 ETFs by 40 percentage points since May 2014 (see the details here). We were also able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that'll significantly underperform the market. We have been tracking and sharing the list of these stocks since February 2017 and they lost 27.8% through November 21, 2019. That's why we believe hedge fund sentiment is an extremely useful indicator that investors should pay attention to.
我們為什麼要關注對衝基金的情緒呢？我們的研究表明，在1999年至2016年期間，對衝基金的大盤股選擇確實未能跑贏大盤。然而，我們能夠提前確定一組精選的對衝基金持股，自2014年5月以來，這些基金的表現比羅素2000 ETF高出40個百分點(詳見此處)。我們還能夠提前確定一組精選的對衝基金持股，這些基金的表現將顯著遜於市場。自2017年2月以來，我們一直在跟蹤和分享這些股票的名單，截至2019年11月21日，它們下跌了27.8%。這就是為什麼我們認為對衝基金情緒是投資者應該關注的一個極其有用的指標。
[caption id="attachment_25583" align="aligncenter" width="449"] George Soros of Soros Fund Management[/caption]
[Caption id=“Attach_25583”Align=“AlignCenter”Width=“449”]索羅斯基金管理公司的喬治·索羅斯[/標題]
We leave no stone unturned when looking for the next great investment idea. For example Europe is set to become the world's largest cannabis market, so we check out this European marijuana stock pitch . One of the most bullish analysts in America just put his money where his mouth is. He says, "I'm investing more today than I did back in early 2009." So we check out his pitch . We read hedge fund investor letters and listen to stock pitches at hedge fund conferences. We also rely on the best performing hedge funds ' buy/sell signals. We're going to analyze the fresh hedge fund action regarding AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC).
What does smart money think about AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC)?
聰明的錢怎麼看AGNC投資公司(納斯達克：AGNC)？
At Q3's end, a total of 15 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were long this stock, a change of -35% from one quarter earlier. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards AGNC over the last 17 quarters. So, let's examine which hedge funds were among the top holders of the stock and which hedge funds were making big moves.
截至第三季度末，Insider Monkey追蹤的對衝基金中共有15只做多這隻股票，較上一季度減少了35%。下面，您可以查看對衝基金對AGNC的態度在過去17個季度的變化。那麼，讓我們來看看哪些對衝基金是這隻股票的最大持有者之一，哪些對衝基金正在採取重大行動。
More specifically, Citadel Investment Group was the largest shareholder of AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC), with a stake worth $84.8 million reported as of the end of September. Trailing Citadel Investment Group was Soros Fund Management, which amassed a stake valued at $18.9 million. Winton Capital Management, Hudson Bay Capital Management, and Alyeska Investment Group were also very fond of the stock, becoming one of the largest hedge fund holders of the company. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each positionNeo Ivy Capitalallocated the biggest weight to AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC), around 0.84% of its 13F portfolio.Soros Fund Managementis also relatively very bullish on the stock, earmarking 0.52 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to AGNC.
更具體地説，Citadel Investment Group是納斯達克投資公司(AgNC Investment Corp.)的最大股東，截至9月底報告持有價值8,480萬美元的股份。排在Citadel Investment Group之後的是索羅斯基金管理公司(Soros Fund Management)，該公司持有價值1890萬美元的股份。温頓資本管理公司哈德森Bay Capital Management和Alyeska Investment Group也非常喜歡這隻股票，成為該公司最大的對衝基金持有者之一。就每個位置的投資組合權重而言，新常春藤資本給予AGNC投資公司(納斯達克：AGNC)的權重最大，約佔其13F投資組合的0.84%。索羅斯基金管理公司也相對非常看好該股，將其13F股票投資組合的0.52%專門用於AGNC。
Due to the fact that AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC) has experienced bearish sentiment from the entirety of the hedge funds we track, it's safe to say that there lies a certain "tier" of money managers that elected to cut their positions entirely by the end of the third quarter. It's worth mentioning thatRenaissance Technologiescut the largest investment of the "upper crust" of funds followed by Insider Monkey, totaling close to $16.4 million in stock. Daniel Johnson's fund,Gillson Capital, also dumped its stock, about $12.7 million worth. These transactions are intriguing to say the least, as total hedge fund interest was cut by 8 funds by the end of the third quarter.
由於AGNC Investment Corp.(納斯達克代碼：AGNC)經歷了我們追蹤的所有對衝基金的看跌情緒，可以有把握地説，有一定的“級別”基金經理選擇在第三季度末之前完全削減頭寸。值得一提的是，文藝復興科技削減了“上層”基金中最大的一筆投資，緊隨其後的是Insider Monkey，股票總額接近1640萬美元。Daniel·約翰遜的基金Gillson Capital也拋售了價值約1,270萬美元的股票。這些交易至少可以説是耐人尋味的，因為截至第三季度末，對衝基金的總利息減少了8只。
Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC). These stocks are MGM Growth Properties LLC (NYSE:MGP), Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO), Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (NYSE:HII), and WEX Inc (NYSE:WEX). All of these stocks' market caps match AGNC's market cap.
讓我們現在審查其他類似AGNC投資公司(納斯達克：AGNC)的股票中的對衝基金活動。這些股票是MGM Growth Properties LLC(紐約證券交易所代碼：MGP)，費爾艾薩克公司(紐約證券交易所代碼：FICO)，亨廷頓英格斯工業公司Inc.(NYSE：HII)和WEX Inc.(NYSE：HII)WEX)。所有這些股票的市值都與AGNC的市值相符。
[table] Ticker, No of HFs with positions, Total Value of HF Positions (x1000), Change in HF Position MGP,18,307511,4 FICO,40,873383,6 HII,19,589653,-4 WEX,25,474044,-6 Average,25.5,561148,0 [/table]
[表格]股票代碼，有位置的高頻數量，高頻位置的總值(X1000)，高頻位置的變化MGP，18,307511，4 FICO，40,873383，6 HII，19,589653，-4 WEX，25,474044，-6平均值，25.5,561148，0[/表]
View table hereif you experience formatting issues.
如果您遇到格式問題，請查看此處的表格。
As you can see these stocks had an average of 25.5 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $561 million. That figure was $127 million in AGNC's case. Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand MGM Growth Properties LLC (NYSE:MGP) is the least popular one with only 18 bullish hedge fund positions. Compared to these stocks AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC) is even less popular than MGP. Our calculations showed thattop 20 most popular stocksamong hedge funds returned 37.4% in 2019 through the end of November and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 9.9 percentage points. A small number of hedge funds were also right about betting on AGNC, though not to the same extent, as the stock returned 9.7% during the fourth quarter (through 11/30) and outperformed the market as well.
正如你所看到的，這些股票平均有25.5只對衝基金持有看漲頭寸，平均投資於這些股票的金額為5.61億美元。在AGNC的案例中，這一數字是1.27億美元。費爾艾薩克公司(紐約證券交易所代碼：FICO)是該表中最受歡迎的股票。另一方面，MGM Growth Properties LLC(NYSE：MGP)是最不受歡迎的，只有18個看漲對衝基金頭寸。與這些股票相比，AGNC投資公司(納斯達克：AGNC)甚至沒有MGP那麼受歡迎。我們的計算顯示，截至11月底，對衝基金中最受歡迎的20只股票在2019年的回報率為37.4%，表現優於標準普爾500指數ETF(標普500ETF)下降9.9個百分點。少數對衝基金對AGNC的押注也是正確的，儘管程度不同，因為該股在第四季度(截至11/30)的回報率為9.7%，表現也好於大盤。
Disclosure: None. This article was originally published atInsider Monkey.
披露：沒有。本文最初發表在《內幕猴子》雜誌上。
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