This week's important schedule overview

• Central Bank News: The prospect of a Fed rate cut has changed dramatically overnight, when will the crazy rise in the yen stop?

After Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a rate cut in September, the market received a significant boost. However, due to multiple US economic data showing weakness, US stocks fell sharply on Thursday and Friday. The market began to worry that the US economy was entering a recession and that the timing of a Fed rate cut may be too late. Subsequently, expectations for a rate cut rose sharply, with a 78% chance of the Fed cutting 50 basis points in September.

Three Fed officials will speak next week, and investors will closely monitor their views on current economic data and rate cuts. They include:

Monday 20:30, 2025 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will be interviewed by CNBC

Tuesday 5:00, 2024 FOMC voting member, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak

Friday 3:00, 2024 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will participate in a fireside chat

It is worth noting that the Bank of Japan will release the summary of the July monetary policy meeting on Thursday. If the summary shows that policy makers are willing to further raise interest rates by the end of the year, the yen may remain strong.

Some analysts have emphasized the vulnerability of US stocks against a sharp appreciation of the yen. Firstly, the tough stance of the Bank of Japan has led to the collapse of short-term arbitrage trading. If the underlying asset that traders arbitrage is the recently large-cap US stocks, it will further deepen the decline of US stocks (at the same time, this strategy will continue to reverse, further driving the strength of the yen).

Other central banks around the world will also act. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Mexico will announce their interest rate decisions, and the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy meeting minutes.

• Important data: The resilience of the US economy faces another test; China's CPI, PPI, and monetary finance data will be released in succession.

Last week's very weak ISM manufacturing report, as well as the 'surprise' non-farm payroll data, greatly increased investors' concerns about the prospect of a recession, and global markets entered a safe-haven mode. Therefore, the market will pay special attention to the economic data to be released next. The US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI will be announced at 22:00 Beijing time on Monday, and if this data also shows weakness, it may further undermine investor confidence.

Analysts estimate that the July ISM service index will rebound to 51, higher than June's 48.8. Previously, the reading for this data in June was the lowest since May 2020, and new orders, employment and business activities were also negative. If these trends are confirmed to continue, this will strengthen expectations of an impending economic recession.

In addition, the final value of the S&P Global Services PMI for July in the US will be announced on Monday, and the number of initial jobless claims reflecting employment conditions will be announced on Thursday, which will also be an important point for the US economy.

James St. Aubin, Chief Investment Officer of Ocean Park Asset Management, said: 'We are witnessing the consequences of high expectations. The idea of a soft landing led people to invest too much money in the stock market, so even any signal of changing circumstances will make them retreat with difficulty.'

In China, the Caixin Services PMI for July will be released on Monday, the foreign exchange reserves will be released on Wednesday, and CPI, PPI, M2 and other monetary and financial data will be released at the same time on Friday.

In addition, PMI in Europe, and retail sales month-on-month in the eurozone and other countries will also be released one after another.

• Company financial reports: "Slimming Pill Duo", Super Micro Computer, Palantir and other important AI concept stocks are about to report.

The recession panic is shrouding US stocks. The earnings reports of companies such as Amazon, Google, and Intel released this week have disappointed the market, exacerbating investors' concerns about corporate profit growth. Next week will also bring a series of important earnings reports, which will provide more insight into the health of consumers and manufacturing.

Among them, media and entertainment giant St. and slimming pill giant$Disney (DIS.US)$weight loss drug giant$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$,$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$- Petroleum companies - Popular AI concept stocks - Electric car companies - And others will be listed successively. In the Hong Kong stock market, leading companies from various industries, such as [Company Name], will also release their financial reports. Learn about the important performance calendar for the week (8.5-8.9) with this chart: August 5th, Monday: - Key words: S&P Global Services PMI for July in the US, ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July in the US, speech by Fed official Gulbisby, Palantir earnings report On Monday, economic data will be released such as the final value of S&P Global Services PMI for July in the US, ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July in the US, and the PPI for June in the Eurozone. In terms of financial events, 2025 FOMC voting member and chairman of the Chicago Fed Gulbisby will be interviewed by CNBC. The financial report will be released after the US stock market closes. - [Company Name] August 6th, Tuesday: - Key words: US trade account, speech by Fed official Daly, Super Micro Computer and Rivian earnings reports On Tuesday, economic data will be released such as the US trade account for June, global supply chain pressure index for July, and retail sales monthly rate for June in the Eurozone. In terms of financial events, 2024 FOMC voting member and Chairman of the San Francisco Fed, Daly, will give a speech, and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. [Company Names] and others will release their financial reports in the US and Hong Kong stock markets respectively. In terms of new stocks, there will be new listings in the US stock market.$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$- The weather is good today - The weather is good today.$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$,$Palantir (PLTR.US)$Please use the Futubull account to access the feature.$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$,$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$- And other listings will follow.

In the Hong Kong stock market,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$,$SMIC (00981.HK)$,$GENSCRIPT BIO (01548.HK)$Leading companies from various industries, such as [Company Name], will also release their financial reports.

This week's key performance calendar

August 5th, Monday:

- Key words: S&P Global Services PMI for July in the US, ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July in the US, speech by Fed official Gulbisby, Palantir earnings report

On Monday, economic data will be released such as the final value of S&P Global Services PMI for July in the US, ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July in the US, and the PPI for June in the Eurozone.

In terms of financial events, 2025 FOMC voting member and chairman of the Chicago Fed Gulbisby will be interviewed by CNBC.

Regarding financial reports,$Palantir (PLTR.US)$,$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$The financial report will be released after the US stock market closes.

Regarding IPOs,$BLACK SESAME (02533.HK)$the IPO subscription has ended.

August 6th, Tuesday:

- Key words: US trade account, speech by Fed official Daly, Super Micro Computer and Rivian earnings reports

On Tuesday, economic data will be released such as the US trade account for June, global supply chain pressure index for July, and retail sales monthly rate for June in the Eurozone.

In terms of financial events, 2024 FOMC voting member and Chairman of the San Francisco Fed, Daly, will give a speech, and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.

Regarding financial reports,$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$,$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$,$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$- [Company Names] and other US stock companies and [Company Names] and other Hong Kong stock companies will release their financial reports respectively.$TECHTRONIC IND (00669.HK)$- [Company Names] and other Hong Kong stock companies will release their financial reports respectively.

In terms of new stocks, there will be new listings in the US stock market.$Pershing Square USA (PSUS.US)$will be listed.

Wednesday, August 7th.

Keywords: China's foreign exchange reserves; EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report; Disney, Novo Nordisk, and Occidental Petroleum financial reports.

On Wednesday, economic data including US EIA crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserve inventories, as well as China's foreign exchange reserves, will be released.

Among the US stock companies, attention should be paid to the financial reports of weight loss drug giant $Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$and media entertainment giant $Disney (DIS.US)$as well as oil companies.$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$In Hong Kong stock companies, the results of $CHINA TOWER (00788.HK)$,$CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK)$Will release financial report.

Regarding IPOs,$BLACK SESAME (02533.HK)$will be announced.

Thursday, August 8th.

Keywords: US initial jobless claims; BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes; Lilly, China Mobile, SMIC financial reports.

On Thursday, economic data including US June wholesale sales rate and initial jobless claims are worth paying attention to.

In terms of financial events, the BOJ's July monetary policy meeting minutes, as well as speeches by the Australian Reserve Bank Chairman Brock, will be the market focus. The Bank of Canada will also release minutes of its monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, the latest performance of major US stock companies such as

Regarding financial reports,$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$,$Unity Software (U.US)$and leading Hong Kong stock companies like $CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$,$SMIC (00981.HK)$will be released.

Regarding new listings, Hong Kong's new stock $BLACK SESAME (02533.HK)$will be listed.

Friday, August 9th.

Keywords: Speech by Fed official Barkin; China's CPI, PPI, M2 money supply growth rate; Financial report of Genscript Bio and Nikola.

On Friday, various important economic data, such as China's CPI, PPI, M2 money supply growth rate, and new RMB loans, will be released one after another.

In terms of financial events, FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will participate in a fireside chat in 2024. The Mexican central bank will announce its interest rate decision.

Regarding financial reports,$GENSCRIPT BIO (01548.HK)$,$Nikola (NKLA.US)$The financial report is coming.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor/new