DPC DASH(1405.HK):OUTLOOK STAYS HEALTHY AFTER POSITIVE PROFIT ALERT
DPC DASH(1405.HK):OUTLOOK STAYS HEALTHY AFTER POSITIVE PROFIT ALERT
What is new? DPC Dash announced a positive profit alert for 1H24. For1H24, the company is now expecting that:1) sales to increase by 45%+ YoY to RMB 2.0bn, 2) net profit to be at RMB 10.0mn+ (vs RMB 8.8mn in 1H23), 3) adj. net profit to be at RMB 48mn+ (vs RMB 17.4mn losses in 1H23). Also, the company has opened 146 net new stores (12/ 134 in mature/ emerging markets) and total number has reached 914, representing 36% YoY growth.
DPC Dash發佈了1H24的正面利潤預警。預計1H24公司將實現以下目標：1）銷售額同比增長45%以上，達到20億元人民幣，2）淨利潤將達到10億元人民幣以上（較1H23的8.8億元人民幣有所增長），3）調整後的淨利潤將達到4.8億元人民幣以上（較1H23的虧損17.4億人民幣有所增長）。此外，該公司新增了146家店鋪（成熟市場/新興市場分別爲12/134），店鋪總數達到914家，同比增長36%。
Our view: Extremely solid SSSG, supported by resilient/ healthy performance in mature/ emerging markets, we do not rule out more upsides in the near future.
我們認爲：成熟市場和新興市場的堅實銷售增長支撐着極強的單店複合增長率，我們不排除在不久的將來有更多的增長。
1) SSSG in 2Q24 was still a positive, which is the 28th consecutive quarter that DPC has achieved positive SSSG, highly impressive, esp. given the macro conditions. The figure was way better than many of its peers (+15% for HDL (CMBI est.), -MSD to -HSD for YUMC (CMBI est.), -18% for Tai Er, -14% for Starbucks, -21% for Luckin Coffee), 2) we do find the growth in mature/ emerging markets are resilient/ fast and healthy, because based on the prelim. numbers, the group's sales per store could be at around 8% (hence we expect a MSD to LSD SSSG), and thanks to limited new stores for mature market, decent rebound in delivery demand, plus the improved adj. NP margin, we believe the sales per store for mature/ emerging markets could still be at 0% to LSD/ 15%+, 3) we see some potential for an upward guidance revision, on one hand, the growth of net new store openings has been accelerated (from 31% in FY23 to 36% in 1H24), which has achieved 85%+ of the FY24E target, and on the other hand, the adj. NP margin was already at 2.4%, which is ahead of the company's FY24E guidance of 1% to 1.5%.
1）2Q24的單店複合增長仍然是正的，這是DPC連續實現第28個季度正單店複合增長，令人印象深刻，尤其是在宏觀經濟環境下。這個數字比許多同行要好得多（如HDL（招商銀行國際估值爲+15%）、YUMC（招商銀行國際估值爲 -MSD to -HSD）、泰爾（18%）、星巴克（14%）、瑞幸咖啡（21%））。2）我們發現成熟市場和新興市場的增長是堅實和快速的，因爲基於初步數據，集團的每家店的銷售額可能在8%左右（因此我們預計單店複合增長率爲MSD to LSD），成熟市場由於新開店鋪有限，加上交付需求的回升及調整後淨利潤率的改善，我們認爲成熟市場/新興市場的單店銷售額仍然可能爲0%至LSD / 15% +，3）我們看到一些上行指引修訂的潛力，一方面，淨新店開業的增長已加速（從FY23的31%加速到1H24的36%），已達到FY24E目標的85%以上，另一方面，調整後的淨利潤率已達到2.4%，超出公司FY24E指引的1%至1.5%。
While we are highly cautious about the catering sector in 2H24E, we have no doubt that DPC can continue to outperform and deliver decent results.
儘管我們對2H24E的餐飲行業持高度謹慎態度，但我們毫不懷疑DPC可以繼續跑贏市場並實現不俗的業績。
Noted that the number of loyalty members has reached 19.4m in 1H24, increased by 78%, even faster than the 70% in FY23. Therefore, we are still LONG on DPC and also suggest investors to take advantages of the pair trade strategy here. It is trading at 1.4x FY25E P/S, still have a premium over peers' average of 0.9x FY25E P/S, but it is totally justifiable given its rapid sales growth and solid market share gains.
請注意，忠誠會員數量在1H24達到了1940萬，同比增長了78%，甚至比FY23的70%增長更快。因此，我們仍然要做多DPC，並建議投資者在這裏利用配對交易策略。它的FY25E市銷率爲1.4倍，仍高於同行業平均水平的FY25E市銷率的0.9倍，但考慮到其快速的銷售增長和穩固的市場份額增長，這是完全合理的。
Raise TP to HK$81.20, based on 1.7x FY25E P/S (rolled over from 2.1xFY24E). We revised up FY24E/ 25E/ 26E net profit by 249%/ 12%/ 10% to factor in the resilient SSSG (in both mature/ emerging markets) and faster- than-expected store expansion. The counter is trading at 1.4x FY25E P/S, 54% higher than peers' average of 0.9x. But it is still attractive, in our view, given the 34% sales CAGR during FY23-26E.
將目標價上調至81.20港元，基於FY25E市銷率的1.7倍（從2.1倍FY24E滾動過來）。我們將FY24E/25E/26E淨利潤上調了249%/12%/10%，以反映出成熟市場和新興市場的複合增長率（都相當韌性），以及店鋪擴張的速度超過預期，它的市銷率爲FY25E的1.4倍，比同行業平均水平高出54%。但考慮到FY23-26E期間的34%銷售年複合增長率，我們認爲這仍然是具有吸引力的。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。