资产质量保持优秀。公司24H1 末不良贷款率0.76%，环比低位持平；24H1 末拨备覆盖率545.17%，环比24Q1 下降6.06 pct，24H1 末拨贷比4.14%，环比24Q1 末下降0.06pct，拨备水平维持行业前列，也为业绩高增的持续性带来保障。公司从上至下贯彻“不以风险换发展”的理念，预计公司资产质量能经过周期考验，继续保持优异水平。Core views:
The Bank of Hangzhou disclosed the 2024 semi-annual results report. Our comments are as follows: 24H1 revenue increased 5.36% year on year, up 1.9 pct from 24Q1; net profit to mother increased 20.06% year on year, down 1 pct from 24Q1, and performance maintained high growth; 24Q2 single quarter revenue and net profit to mother increased 7.33% and 18.96% year on year, respectively. The revenue growth rate rebounded 3.8 pcts month-on-month in a single quarter. It is expected that debt costs due to manual interest compensation and rectification will stabilize, and net interest income will increase. Effective support.
The size of deposits and loans has increased rapidly. On the asset side, 24H1's total assets and total loans increased 13.8% and 16.5%, respectively, up 0.8 pct and 0.4 pct from 24Q1, respectively. Structurally, the growth rate of loans is significantly higher than the growth rate of total assets, and is also significantly higher than the growth rate of industry credit. The increase in the share of credit in the asset structure will also make a structural contribution to interest spreads. On the debt side, total debt and total deposits of 24H1 increased 13.2% and 13.7%, respectively, and the growth rates changed by +0.2 pct and +2.7 pct, respectively, from the end of 24Q1. The deposit growth rate increased significantly from month to month. It is expected to mainly benefit from the industry's manual interest rate compensation rectification. After the interest compensation rectification, the advantages of the company's deposit products will expand, attracting deposit inflows.
Asset quality remains excellent. The company's non-performing loan ratio at the end of 24H1 was 0.76%, which remained flat; provision coverage at the end of 24H1 was 545.17%, down 6.06 pct from 24Q1, 4.14% from the final loan ratio of 24H1, and 0.06 pct from the end of 24Q1. The provision level remained at the forefront of the industry, and also guaranteed the sustainability of high performance growth. The company implements the concept of “not exchanging risk for development” from top to bottom. It is expected that the quality of the company's assets will pass cyclical tests and continue to maintain an excellent level.
Profit forecasting and investment advice: Bank of Hangzhou adheres to the long-term management perspective of “not exchanging risk for development”, has excellent asset quality, and ranks first among listed banks in terms of overprovision (see “How are listed banks overprepared in 2023?”) , providing a guarantee for rapid growth in the short to medium term. While the company has strict risk control, it also focuses on optimizing debt costs and improving revenue collection capabilities. It continues to deeply cultivate the field of science and innovation finance, explore credit, and provide potential for medium- to long-term growth. Net profit growth rates for 24/25 are expected to be 20.2%/17.6%, EPS is 2.80/3.31 yuan/share, respectively. The current stock price is 4.66X/3.94X for 24/25 PE, respectively, and 0.72X/0.63X for 24/25 PB, respectively. Considering the high quality of the company's fundamentals, it is a model value bank. It maintains the company's reasonable value of 17.98 yuan/share unchanged, corresponding to the 24-year PB valuation of about 1X, and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; interest rates fluctuate sharply; regional deposit competition intensifies.
