Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HTH) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$298m, some 5.1% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.31, 20% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Hilltop Holdings' four analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.17b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 20% to US$1.41 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.36 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Hilltop Holdings' earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$32.67, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Hilltop Holdings analyst has a price target of US$33.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$32.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would also point out that the forecast 1.0% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 7.5% annually over the past five years Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 6.4% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Hilltop Holdings is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Hilltop Holdings' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hilltop Holdings going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Hilltop Holdings (including 1 which is significant) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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