Chen Haichao, head of the research department of Ligao Ge Real Estate, said that in June, the price of houses fell by more than 1% as expected, mainly due to the continued low stock price of new projects, which made second-hand house prices weak and caused continued softness. In the past period of time, the low-price strategy of new projects has not changed. It is believed that house prices will continue to fall by 1% in July. While the interest rate is still at a high level, it is expected that they will further fall by 0.5% in August and September, respectively. It is estimated that the house price in the third quarter will fall by 2% again. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the key is to see whether the interest rate cut is realized. It is hoped that the house price can remain stable at that time. Then the annual house price decline is expected to be maintained at about 5%. If the speed and strength of the interest rate cut are not ideal, coupled with new projects maintaining a low stock price to seize the market, it is feared that second-hand house prices will fall another 3% in the fourth quarter, and the annual house price decline may expand to 8%.

The Hong Kong Rating and Valuation Department today released the latest data showing that in June 2024, the price index of private residences was 301.8 points, a decrease of 1.24% from May's 305.6 points. It has fallen for two consecutive months and accumulated a 2.55% decline. It completely evaporated the cumulative 2.41% increase in March and April after the withdrawal of spicy elements. It also set a new low of 93 months (i.e. more than 7 and a half years) since October 2016, temporarily guarding the threshold of 300 points. In the second quarter of this year, house prices fell by 2.04% month-on-month, and the cumulative decline in house prices in the first half of the year was 3.05%. Compared with the historical high of 398.1 points in September 2021, the cumulative decline in house prices has expanded to 24.19%.

Regarding the trend of rent, Chen Haichao said that rents rose by 2.22% in the second quarter, the largest increase in nearly three quarters, and rents accumulated a 1.61% increase in the first half of this year. Although the increase narrowed to only 0.16% in June, with the effect of the summer peak season and more international students renting units, as well as a continuous inflow of talent, rents are expected to have a larger increase in July and August, with a monthly increase of 1%. It is expected to drive rents up by nearly 3% again in the third quarter, and the cumulative increase in the first three quarters is expected to be nearly 5%. The overall rental market and rental trends still look promising.

Edited by Jeffrey