Goldman Sachs said that the stock price of AIA has fallen by 22% since May 20th, reflecting the decline of the Hang Seng Index and investors' continued attention to the rebound in profits, intrinsic value, and new business value growth. The bank believes that AIA's mid-year results announced on the 22nd of next month will be the first step in responding to investors' concerns. The bank predicts that AIA's new business value in the second quarter will increase by 17% and 15% per year under fixed exchange rates and substantive exchange rates, respectively, and the growth of medium-term after-tax surplus will turn from negative to positive, and will increase by 2% annually. The bank will focus on AIA management's outlook for the second half of the year.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its "buy" rating on AIA and listed it as a conviction buy, based on the company's solid new business value growth, strong balance sheet, and profitability generation. The bank expects investors to revalue the stock after visibility increases for the company's after-tax surplus and free cash flow rebound and growth prospects. The bank set a target price of HKD 92 for AIA, which predicts nine times the new business value in 2025.