XIAOMI CORP(1810.HK):TECH AND AUTO JOINT REPORT:ANNUAL SPEECH EVENT UNVEILS A STRONG LINEUP AHEAD ACROSS SMARTPHONE IOT AND EV
XIAOMI CORP(1810.HK):TECH AND AUTO JOINT REPORT:ANNUAL SPEECH EVENT UNVEILS A STRONG LINEUP AHEAD ACROSS SMARTPHONE IOT AND EV
We attended Xiaomi's Annual Speech Event last Friday, during which CEO Lei Jun unveiled Xiaomi's latest foldable phone series MIX Fold4 and its first flip phone MIX Flip, Redmi K70 Ultra, wearables and large home appliances as well as SU7 Ultra prototype. We are encouraged by Xiaomi's premiumisation progress as the new products consistently exhibit competitive performance with a more stylish and deluxe design language. In particular, we are upbeat on Xiaomi's capability to replicate success of SU7 in future model pipeline, and thus raise 2024-26 EV volume and margin forecasts. We raise our TP from HK$25.18 to HK$25.72 and reiterate Xiaomi as top BUY.
上週五我們參加了小米的年度演講活動，期間CEO雷軍發佈了小米最新的可摺疊手機系列MIX Fold4和首款翻蓋手機MIX Flip、Redmi K70 Ultra、可穿戴設備和大型家電以及SU7 Ultra原型機。我們對小米的高端化進程感到鼓舞，因爲新產品始終展現出更具競爭力的性能和更時尚豪華的設計語言。特別是我們對小米在未來模型管線中複製SU7的成功能力持樂觀態度，因此提高了2024-26年的EV成交量和利潤預測。我們將目標價從25.18港元上調至25.72港元，並重申小米爲首選買入股票。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
MIX Fold and Flip foldable phones are new growth drivers: Global foldable phone market is a fast growing segment with high ASP (RMB6,000+) over the past four years. We believe Xiaomi MIX Fold4 and Flip will be a hit and gain market share as they address many pain points of existing foldable products, including price, thickness, weight, SoC capability, battery, app compatibility and UI logic between main-display, sub-display and cameras. In particular, comparing the spec with comparable foldable products, we find Xiaomi's Fold and Flip present significant advantages in camera and battery capacity over peers. Meanwhile, we also believe Xiaomi MIX Flip's full functional 3.5-inch 16:9 sub-display for the benefit of max app compatibility will be a killer feature. We estimate Xiaomi MIX Fold and Flip will deliver over one million life-time shipment volume combined, which will further accelerate Xiaomi's brand premiumisation and sustain group profitability in the long term.
MIX Fold和Flip可摺疊手機是新的增長驅動器：全球可摺疊手機市場是一個快速增長的細分市場，在過去四年中呈高價（人民幣6,000元以上）趨勢。我們相信小米MIX Fold4和Flip將獲得成功並獲得市場份額，因爲它們解決了許多現有可摺疊產品的痛點，包括價格、厚度、重量、SoC功能、電池、應用兼容性以及主屏、副屏和相機之間的UI邏輯。特別是與類似的可摺疊產品相比，我們發現小米的Fold和Flip在相機和電池容量方面相比同行有明顯優勢。同時，我們還認爲，小米MIX Flip的全功能3.5英寸16:9副屏幕可最大化應用兼容性，將成爲一個殺手功能。我們估計小米MIX Fold和Flip將總計交付超過一百萬個生命週期的發貨量，這將進一步加速小米的品牌高端化，並在長期內維持集團的盈利能力。
SU7's success and EV strategy boost our confident in the upcoming new models. After a deep-dive research on Xiaomi's EV-making strategy and SU7's competitiveness, we are more confident about its capability to replicate the success of SU7 in future model pipelines. After the ongoing production line optimisation, we expect the double-shift capacity to drive a steady monthly sales ramp up of SU7 against c.11k deliveries in June. This may imply upside potential for both sales volume and gross margin this year against guidance. We forecast EV sales volume of 120k/240k/410k units for 2024-26 with gross margin of 10%/15%/18%.
SU7的成功和EV策略增強了我們對即將推出的新型號的信心。經過深入研究小米的EV製造策略和SU7的競爭力後，我們對其在未來機型管道中複製SU7的成功能力更有信心了。在正在進行的生產線優化後，我們預期雙班制產能將推動SU7月銷量穩步增長，對比6月份的大約1.1萬交付量，這可能意味着今年銷售量和毛利率的上行空間。我們預測2024-26年EV的銷售量爲12萬/24萬/41萬輛，毛利率爲10％/15％/18％。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Domestic smartphone competition; Global geopolitical conflict; Component price increase; Tax dispute in India; Slow EV capacity ramp up.
國內智能手機市場競爭；全球地緣政治衝突；零部件價格上漲；印度稅務爭端；電動汽車產能緩慢增加。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。