According to a report released by Lyon, the slowing sales volume of new cars in the Mainland, price competition, and overall macroeconomic weakness are exerting pressure on online automobile companies. The media service revenue of Autohome (02518.HK) and the same-store sales of Tuhu (09690.HK) are the biggest victims. The bank expects that the performance of the second quarter, the first half, and the second half of the year will show weak revenue.

The bank believes that it will take more time for the media service revenue of Autohome to recover. As for the positive and negative factors of the lead service offsetting each other, data products may become the only bright spot. The company will disclose its second quarter results at the end of July, and the bank expects its total revenue to increase by about 2% year-on-year to 1.86 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit of 0.52 billion yuan and a profit margin of 27.9%. However, the bank is more bearish on the company's revenue in the second half of the year, mainly due to the decline in media revenue. Therefore, the bank lowered its revenue forecast for 2024 and 2025 by 3%, despite stricter operating expenses. Weak revenue will put pressure on its gross margin, so the bank lowered the company's adjusted net profit forecast for this year and next year by 2% and 1%, respectively. The bank lowered its target price for Autohome (ATHM.US) from $29 to $26.3 and rated it as "outperform the market".

In addition, the bank is more bullish on Tuhu. Although macroeconomic weakness is the main pressure on its revenue growth, the company's stable new store growth, supply chain advantages, and franchise operation efficiency are conducive to expanding market share and supporting sustainable gross margin improvement. The bank expects the company to disclose its first-half performance at the end of August, with total revenue expected to increase by 9% year-on-year to 7.1 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit of 0.347 billion yuan, with a profit margin of about 5%. The bank lowered its revenue forecast for the company by 7% and 10% for this year and next year, respectively, but maintained confidence in its profit growth. It lowered its forecast for the company's adjusted net profit margin by 3% and 4%, respectively. The bank lowered its target price for Tuhu from 21.5 yuan to 20.5 yuan and rated it as "outperform the market".