Maybank Optimistic On KLCI's 2H Outlook
Maybank Optimistic On KLCI's 2H Outlook
After 3 straight years (2021-2023) of negative returns, the KLCI has been on a tear over 1H24, gaining almost 10% to become the secondbest performing equity market benchmark in ASEAN after Vietnam.
經過連續三年(2021-2023)的負回報，大馬吉隆坡綜合指數在2024年上半年取得了長足進展，漲幅近10％，成爲繼越南之後東盟表現第二好的股票市場基準。
A confluence of drivers has sparked the re-rating, chiefly i) progress in economic restructuring and fiscal reforms; ii) record high approved (and actual) direct investments (FDI/DDI); and iii) corporate earnings growth delivery – on the latter, Maybank IB sais it now estimates a higher +15.5% core earnings growth for our coverage universe in 2024E (previously +13.1%), while for 2025E, and now estimates +10.7% growth (previously +9.9%). This, in turn, is keeping market valuations grounded despite YTD gains, as reflected by end-2024 KLCI target of 1,680, which implies 15x fwd. PER, still -0.5 standard deviations below long-term mean of 16x. Validating the long-held view that the local market can move higher on (ample) domestic liquidity alone, the KLCI's gains were achieved despite foreign outflows totaling MYR0.83b over 1H24.
多方因素共同推動大馬投資組合指數再評級，其中主要因素包括i) 經濟重組和財政改革進展；ii) 最高批准(和實際) 直接投資(FDI/DDI)達歷史新高；和iii) 公司盈利增長的交付 - 對於後者，馬來亞銀行伊班稱，現在估計我們2024年覆蓋範圍內的核心盈利將增長15.5% (之前爲13.1%)，而對於2025E，現在估計增長爲10.7% (之前爲9.9%)。由此，儘管今年迄今爲止實現了收益，市場估值仍保持不變，反映出2024年底大馬投資組合指數的目標爲1,680，這意味着15倍前瞻市盈率，仍低於16倍的長期平均水平0.5標準偏差。驗證了長期以來的觀點，即僅憑(充足)的國內流動性，本地市場便能走高，大馬投資組合指數的上漲是在境外流出資金達到8.3億令吉的情況下完成的。
A good start, then...but what's next? US Presidential elections in Nov aside, the external environment remains supportive, with FDI/DDIboosting global supply chain shifts continuing apace and markets now pricing in a generous three 25bps (total 75bps) cuts in the Fed funds rate (FFR) between Sep and Dec 2024 (MIBG: two 25bps cuts), which will significantly alleviate regional FX pressures i.e. we forecast the USDMYR to end 2024 stronger, around the 4.60 level. Domestically, the most anticipated catalyst is formalisation of the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JSSEZ). Malaysia's Economy Minister has
indicated a possible deal announcement in Sept, which would be a huge stimulus for both countries via freer movement of people, goods and capital, and further invigorate other key thematics such as FDI, renewable energy (RE) and data centres (DCs). Successful execution of structural reforms such as the National Semiconductor Strategy (to move up the value chain vs. current largely back-end processes) and petrol subsidy rationalization would further lift market sentiment
接下來呢？除了11月的美國總統大選之外，外部環境仍將支持，FDI / DDI促進全球供應鏈的轉移繼續保持，並且市場現在定價了巨大的三次25bps(共75bps)降息，分別在2024年9月至12月之間(大馬銀行集團：兩次25bps降息)，這將顯著減輕區域外匯壓力，即我們預測美元兌馬幣將在2024年結束時升值到大約4.60的水平。在本國，最受期待的催化劑是柔佛 - 新加坡特別經濟區(JSSEZ)的正式化。馬來西亞經濟部長表示，可能會在2021年9月宣佈一項協議，這將通過更自由的人員、貨物和資本流動以及進一步振興其他關鍵主題，如FDI、可再生能源(RE)和數據中心(DCs)來刺激兩國的經濟增長。成功推行國家半導體戰略(與當前主要的後端流程相比提升價值鏈)和成本津貼合理化等結構性改革，將進一步提高市場情緒。
股票市場定位？建議加重銀行、建築業、房地產，可再生能源、航空、遊戲娛樂城、石油和天然氣、手套和軟件/ EMS; 輕倉位石化和媒體。股票方面，建議選擇CelcomDigi(電信業首選股)，Eco World(房地產業首選買入股)和ATech(EMS)。其他主要買入股包括CTRM, CIMB,和SD Guthrie。其中SD Guthrie提供新鮮的可再生能源角度; Solarvest、消費品中MR D.I.Y.和AEON Co.也提供消費者降級的可能性; Genting則代表着深度價值投資。
Market positioning? Re sectors, the house recommends Overweighting Banks, Construction, RE, Aviation, Gaming-Casino, Oil & Gas, Gloves and Software/EMS; Underweight Petrochems, Media. Re stocks, the house adds CelcomDigi (preferred Telco), Eco World (top BUY in Property) and ATech (EMS). Other key BUYs are AMMB, followed by CIMB in Banks; SD Guthrie in Plantation which offers a fresh RE angle; and Solarvest in RE sector. For Consumer, picks MR D.I.Y. and AEON Co. also offer
consumer down-trading angles while Genting represents deep value.
消費板塊選擇：消費者現在傾向於降低支出。而選購MR D.I.Y.和AEON Co.可以減少消費支出; 而Genting則代表着深度價值投資。
不錯的建議。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。